Olympics Soccer 2024 Preview:
Are you already mourning the end of the European Championship and Copa America? Fear not. Ten days after the finals of both of those tournaments, the feast of international soccer continues at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics.
The men’s competition will kick off on Wednesday, July 24th, which, due to the number of matches required, is actually two days before the opening ceremony. The action runs all the way through to August 9th, when the final takes place in Paris.
Sixteen teams will battle for the gold, silver and bronze medals, split initially into four groups of four teams, with the top two in each group advancing to the quarterfinals. Group games can end in a tie (3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie, 0 for a loss), but the quarterfinals mark the beginning of the knockout stage, where in the event of a tie, a 30-minute extra time period is played, followed by a penalty shootout if necessary.
This is fundamentally an under-23 tournament, but each nation can pick three overage players classified as “wildcard” picks, which is where it can get very interesting. Some of the best in the business have been featured over the years. Neymar starred for Brazil in 2016 and Lionel Messi won gold with Argentina in 2008, although he won’t feature here.
Brazil have won Gold at the last two Olympics, but they will not get the chance to become the first nation to complete a hat trick of wins as they failed to qualify for the tournament. Under-21 European Championship winners England will also not be participating despite that competition being how the three UEFA (European) qualifiers were decided. The reason being there is a fear amongst the nations of Great Britain that if they amalgamate for the Olympics, they could lose their independence for future World Cups and Euros.
Hosts France are joined by fellow European nations Israel, Spain, and Ukraine, alongside Iraq, Japan, and Uzbekistan from Asia. Egypt, Mali, and Morocco represent Africa, plus South American pair Argentina and Paraguay. Rank outsiders New Zealand are the sole representative from Oceania, while the USA are joined by the Dominican Republic from CONCACAF. Guinea, who won the AFC-CAF playoff, claimed the final spot.
The Top Contenders
Three nations stand clear at the head of the market, and if the traders are correct, the winner will come from one of them.
France +225
The French have a legend of the game in charge, World Cup winner Thierry Henry, who has already made his intentions clear. “I am looking at the gold medal,” he said, “If you don’t come for the gold, there is no point coming.”
Kylian Mbappé had expressed an interest in competing but didn’t make the final cut. However, the 18-man squad is littered with top players from the elite European leagues. Lyon striker Alexandre Lacazette will captain the side, with Premier League Crystal Palace’s Player of the Year Jean-Philippe Mateta another wildcard selection. Former teammate Michael Olise, who this month joined German giants Bayern Munich for more than $60 million, is another eye-catching inclusion.
As hosts, France didn’t have to qualify but were losing quarterfinalists at the Under-21 European Championship last year. With the extra firepower of Lacazette and Mateta (scorers of 35 top-flight goals last season) alongside a head coach who has managed in Ligue 1 and MLS, as well as assisting Roberto Martinez with Belgium, it is clear why “Les Bleuets” are much fancied.
Argentina +275
The second favorites have a two-time Olympic gold medal winner in charge as they look to further stamp their credentials as the best soccer nation in the men’s game. Former Liverpool and Barcelona star Javier Mascherano played on the squads that won in 2004 and 2008 and has been an integral part of the coaching setup since hanging his boots up in 2020.
He guided his side to a win over Brazil in the pre-Olympic tournament to secure their place at Paris 2024. Having assembled a squad that generally plays in their native country, Mascherano has used his wildcards to add World Cup winners Nicolas Otamendi, Julian Alvarez, and Geronimo Rulli, despite the last two players mentioned having also been part of the Argentinian Copa America squad.
Spain +300
Sixteen-year-old Lamine Yamal made all the headlines at the European Championship with his wonder goal, helping his nation to the final and making him the favorite to be named the Player of the Tournament. However, despite being eligible to compete in Paris, the Barcelona wonderkid will not be showcasing his incredible talent. Although much to his club’s disappointment, teammate Fermín López is in the final 18. The 21-year-old caught the eye with a stunning goal and assist in a pre-season 3-0 defeat of Real Madrid last term, so he is one to look out for here.
The Spanish won silver at the last Olympics, where current head coach Santi Denia was assistant to Luis de la Fuente who now leads the full men’s side. He will be desperate to go one better here having also lost out to England in the 2023 UEFA European Under-21 Championship final.
It’s a tough call between the top three, and like the traders, I genuinely can’t see anyone outside of these going on to win gold. Ultimately, the firepower of the French swings it for me, added to the fact that they will be playing on home soil and their key players haven’t had the extra exertion of another major tournament before heading here.
Pick: France to win Paris 2024 Olympics at +225.
Dark Horses/Long Shots to look out for
USA +2000
It couldn’t be a tougher start for the U.S. men’s soccer team as they face favorites France, but it will certainly give a good indication of how far Marko Mitrović’s side can go in the tournament. It could also be the best time to play the French. It would be a shock if they could not take care of Guinea and New Zealand, which make up Group A.
Walker Zimmerman is included as a wildcard after missing out on the Copa America due to injury. Alongside Miles Robinson, they should ensure the team can build on solid foundations. Despite a couple of surprising home-based omissions, there is enough talent from European clubs to suggest the U.S. can go deep, including German-based 2023 U.S. Soccer Young Male Player of the Year Kevin Paredes.
Paraguay +2500
Having missed the last three editions of the World Cup, Paraguay have become something of a forgotten soccer nation. So, their qualification for the Olympic Games is certainly a big step in the right direction.
Carlos Jara Saguier’s side have earned their tag as potential dark horses having won the CONMEBOL Pre-Olympic Tournament. An unbeaten campaign saw them finish ahead of Argentina, who they drew with twice and Brazil, who they beat 1-0.
Expect the Paraguayans to play a simple and fairly direct brand of soccer as they look to qualify from a group containing Japan, Mali and Israel. Their progress will largely depend on the form (and goals) of Inter Miami’s Diego Gómez, who has been linked with a move to West Ham in the Premier League.
Japan +3300
Japan suffered heartbreak on their turf at the last Olympic Games when they lost the third-place play-off 3-1 to Mexico. It would have been their first medal since 1968, and if they are to right that wrong in Paris, it will be achieved with a squad that doesn’t include any overage players.
Key men Yuito Suzuki of Bröndby and Sint-Truidense’s Zion Suzuki have not been released by their clubs who deem them too important. The same goes for the “Japanese Messi,” Takefusa Kubo, once of Real Madrid but now firmly established at Real Sociedad and with 35 full internationals under his belt.
Instead of recruiting full international wildcards like Wataru Endō, head coach Go Oiwa has shown full faith in his young players. He has named 16 players who were in the squad that won the Under-23 Asian Cup in May, including tournament MVP Joel Chima Fujita.
Pick: Paraguay to win Paris 2024 Olympics at +2500
