EPL Soccer – Aston Villa vs. Everton
Week 4 of the English Premier League begins on Saturday, September 14. After a two-week break for international soccer, the Premier League is back with an exciting set of fixtures. Tread with a little caution as Matchday 4 not only comes after the EPL players have been all over the globe representing their countries but just before the first midweek round of Champions League fixtures.
How to Watch Aston Villa vs. Everton
Where: NBC/Peacock
When: Saturday 12:30 p.m. ET
Aston Villa vs. Everton Odds
Aston Villa -209 // Everton +535
Total: 2.5 (-151/+118)
My best bet before the break was that Aston Villa would beat Leicester. That ticket cashed, making it three out of three wins for my strongest play of the week this season.
I am looking to make it four in a row with the same team, this time at home to Everton. The price of -196 illustrates what strong favorites they are. It also means I can’t put them forward on the Moneyline. But I am happy to take them on a -1 Asian Handicap. If they win, we can’t lose—a single-goal margin will be a push, but a two or more-goal victory cashes the ticket in full.
Aston Villa are a side I respect, especially at home, where they have a stunning record, including a run of 14 successive wins from March to December 2023. But this is as much of a fade on Everton as well.
It looked like Sean Dyche had produced an upturn ahead of the break, only for him to watch his side completely collapse. From 2-0 up at home to Bournemouth with 87 of the 90 minutes on the clock, they managed to lose and throw away all three points. It was the latest a team has ever been two goals ahead in a game and lost in Premier League history. How do they recover from that? The answer is I don’t think they do, and a raucous Villa Park is not the venue for a side who have conceded 10 goals in three games with such brittle confidence.
The only factor I can think of which has made Villa such a backable price is that they have their return to the Champions League on Tuesday. That fixture is against Young Boys of Switzerland, which, with respect to them, is not the glamour or prestige of Real Madrid or Barcelona.
In Unai Emery, they have a manager who has been here and done it many times before. He has earned his reputation by producing teams that excel in European competition while still getting the job done in their league. In other words, I don’t see that match as a distraction.
Aston Villa have dominated this fixture and are unbeaten across the last 10 league meetings. They have won seven of those games, including 4-0 here last season. Two of the three draws came on the road.
Expect a continuation of that theme this weekend.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs Everton – Aston Villa -1 Asian Handicap at -120.
