Champions League Final Best Bets

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid

Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET

It is time for the climax of the European club soccer campaign as Borussia Dortmund meet Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League final at Wembley Stadium, London on Saturday. This will be the last final before the tournament switches to a new format next season and I have three picks for you.


As with most finals, this one has been typically cagey over recent years, something which is only to be expected with so much at stake. With every passing year, the rewards become ever greater with increased attention and exposure to every minute detail.

There have been just six goals in the last five Champions League finals with under 2.5 goals bettors cashing in all of them. The last four have all ended 1-0, including Real Madrid’s defeat of Liverpool in 2022. Therefore, it is a massive surprise to me to see Under 2.5 goals in this one priced up as the underdog, so you won’t be shocked to read I am all over that.

This will be the fourth German opponent in this season’s competition for Los Blancos. A campaign that started with a 1-0 victory over Union Berlin a side who finished 15th in Bundesliga and out of the relegation places only on goal difference.

A close form guide would be the Round of 16 ties with RB Leipzig a side that finished only one place and two points better off in the domestic campaign than Dortmund. The Spanish side winning the first leg in Germany 1-0 with a 1-1 home draw in the second leg enough to secure progress to the Quarterfinals. Both fixtures easily cashing for those on Under 2.5 goals and this should be a near identical test.

BVB were expected to be blown away by PSG in their semi-final but won both legs 1-0. That made it six clean sheets in the competition for the Germans with nine of their 12 fixtures in total cashing for backers of under 2.5 goals.

This is a game where coaches and players become more risk averse placing importance on not losing and exercising patience. A final is about the result not why or how a team wins but simply that they do.

Champions Leage Final Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at +118.

It is fitting that Real Madrid should be participating in this “end of an era” final. No side has won more than their 14 European Cup/Champions League titles, in fact that is twice as many as their closest rival. Not to mention 13 more than their opponent here.

In Carlo Ancelotti, they have the only coach to have won the Champions League four times. Having won it twice with AC Milan he is also one of only six coaches to have won the famous trophy with more than one club. He is also a two-time winner with the Italian side as a player.

Of their playing staff, Luka Modrić and Dani Carvajal could join Madrid legend Paco Gento as the only players to win this competition six times. In short, they have a wealth of experience and a deep-rooted knowledge of how to get the job done at the business end of a season.

Los Blancos won La Liga at a canter finishing 10 points clear of runners-up Barcelona whilst boasting both the best defence and attack. They last suffered defeat in any competition in September an incredible unbeaten run of 47 matches.

The Spaniards are also unbeaten in this season’s Champions League winning eight of their 12 fixtures to date. Surprisingly the first time they have reached the final without tasting defeat.

Ancelotti’s men won all six of their group fixtures before showing other sides to their game in the knockout stages. Holding their nerve in a penalty shoot success over defending champions Manchester City before springing an incredible late comeback to knock out Bayern Munich and take their place at Wembley.

Madrid have won four of the six ties against German opposition in the competition so far and the traders make them hot favourites to win this one too. I agree but at odds of around -167 I need some more juice. Taking a Real Madrid “win-to-nil” boosts the odds nicely to +175.

Of their 29 La Liga wins this term Madrid have won 19 (66%) without conceding a goal. Six of their last seven league wins have been “to nil” including each of their last four.

Goalkeeper Andriy Lunin was sensational against Leipzig and then upped his performance levels against the prolific Manchester City attack especially in the penalty shoot-out. He can keep out this Dortmund attack which is led by an old-fashioned style striker in Niclas Fullkrug.

Madrid have not lost a UEFA knockout final since 1983 and although every squad since then has been talented it is their incredible will to win that gets them over the line. Expect them to do so again here with the addition of a clean sheet as in the final of 2022 to add that extra value.

Champions League Final Best Bet: Real Madrid to win to nil at +175.

For my final selectionsm I have combined all the information above to come up with two correct score predictions. A nice way to get a Real Madrid win in a low scoring contest onside at nice prices.

I can’t help but see a continuation of the recent trend in scorelines in this showpiece final. Or an end to a run which has seen Los Blancos win all eight of the finals they have participated in during the Champions League era.

Looking at the offensive talent on display in the last four finals it shows just how tight things become when there is a trophy sitting on the side line waiting to be lifted. PSG, Chelsea, Inter, Real Madrid, Liverpool and Bayern Munich have all featured in one with Manchester City contesting two.

Those games featured the likes of Lautaro Martínez, Sadio Mané, Mo Salah, Robert Lewandowski, Karim Benzema, Vinícius Júnior, Erling Haaland, Neymar and Kylian Mbappé. A star-studded cast of Europe’s most prolific strikers who produced a total of four goals!

We could see a fifth successive 1-0 scoreline in the Champions League final and Carlo Ancelotti would happily sign for that now. Odds of +700 looks well worth some investment.

Prior to the run of 1-0’s the 2018/19 final between Tottenham and Liverpool ended 2-0. Odds for a repeat of that in favor of Madrid are +725 and I am happy to split my stake across both of those correct scores.   

Champions League Final Best Bet: Real Madrid to win 1-0 at +700, Real Madrid to win 2-0 at +725.