Club World Cup Preview – Best Bets for June 28-29
Palmeiras vs Botafogo – Botafogo +0.25 Asian Handicap @ -114
The group stages are complete, and we now have the final 16 teams doing battle in a knockout format to decide who will be crowned Club World Cup winners. It has been a mixed opening two weeks with a few instantly forgettable clashes mixed in with some brilliant matches, a few shocks, and Bayern Munich beating part-timers Auckland City 10-0.
One constant has been how seriously the South American contingent have taken the tournament, and in particular the Brazilians, who have seen all four of their representatives make it out of their respective groups. Two of those meet each other here in what on paper looks like an absolute cracker.
The South Americans have the biggest and noisiest following. With both sets of fans packed into Lincoln Financial Field, there promises to be a white-hot atmosphere in Philadelphia. This should be a tight, cagey affair between genuine domestic rivals, with my initial hopes of playing the Unders scuppered by a goal line set at 2.0.
Given what is at stake, we should expect fireworks too, and that is backed up by a total cards line set at 5.5, one which has cashed on the Over in each of the last four meetings. If you can get on, I certainly wouldn’t put you off, especially with a European official in charge. French referee François Letexier takes this one, and he won’t be used to some of the things he will have to control.
However, my official pick is in the Asian Handicap market, and I am siding with the underdog. Botafogo +0.25 is the selection at -114, meaning we make profit if they avoid defeat in regular time.
The last time Palmeiras came out on top in this battle was in November 2023, incredibly coming from 3-0 down to win a seven-goal thriller with a strike nine minutes into added time at the end of the match. The five games that have followed have seen three wins for Botafogo and two ties, including the most recent meeting in March.
Renato Paiva’s side arguably produced the shock of the tournament to date in beating Champions of Europe Paris Saint-Germain on their way to finishing as runners-up in Group B. A 1-0 defeat to another European giant, Atlético Madrid, was to follow, but in truth, they always looked comfortable. But for some great saves by Jan Oblak, they could have taken another prize scalp and topped the group.
Palmeiras topped Group A, which had an easier look about it, despite only winning one of their three games. They missed several chances in their opening 0-0 tie with a predictably disappointing Porto side, had a first-half red card for Raphael Veiga overturned by VAR before going on to beat Al Ahly. They then scored twice in the last 10 minutes to come from 2-0 down and salvage a tie with Inter Miami, snatching the top spot and a place in the last 16.
Neither side concedes many goals. Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in seven of their last 11 fixtures across all competitions. While any side that can keep the pre-tournament favorites PSG out deserves ultimate respect.
A tie is good enough to take half a stake profit, but with such strong defensive organisation and boasting an impressive recent head-to-head record, I think Botafogo can nick this to secure a full win.
Benfica vs Chelsea – Pedro Neto to score or assist @ +195
Chelsea must have been fearing the worst after collapsing to a 3-1 defeat to Flamengo on match day 2, despite leading 1-0 with an hour on the clock. At that stage, they looked all set for a daunting showdown with Bayern Munich in the last 16.
Instead, Benfica caused something of an upset as they beat the rotated German champions to set up this clash with the Londoners. It’s a twist of fate, which means it is the expected matchup at this stage, but having topped Group C, the Portuguese side would have thought they would be facing Flamengo in a game they would have been strong favorites to win.
It has certainly not been straightforward for Bruno Lage’s men, who had a nightmare start to the Club World Cup as they trailed Boca Juniors 2-0 inside the opening 30 minutes. Veterans Ángel Di María and Nicolás Otamendi got them out of trouble, scoring the goals to earn a point.
The 6-0 scoreline against part-timers Auckland City flattered them a little. It took a penalty five minutes into the first half added on time to break the deadlock, and it was only 3-0 with fifteen minutes left on the clock.
What catches my attention here is that Enzo Maresca made eight changes from the side that lost to the Brazilians to the one that secured progress by cruising past Esperance Tunis 3-0 in the final group game. With temperatures expected to be in the 90s, that rotation could be a huge advantage, especially since their opponents’ best-performing players are both 37.
One of the players who was completely rested in the last match was Pedro Neto. The former Wolves man really caught my eye at the back end of the Premier League season, and he has carried that good form into this tournament.
The Portuguese attacker will surely be extra motivated against a club from the nation of his birth. We saw on match day 1 that he thrives on a little additional edge, blowing kisses to one of the LAFC players in his celebration after opening the scoring.
He followed that up by scoring Chelsea’s only goal in that defeat to Flamengo before sitting out the routine victory over the Tunisians. This continues excellent form, which saw the 25-year-old provide an assist for Portugal’s opening goal in their UEFA Nations League final win in the last game prior to the Club World Cup. In his last Premier League outing, Neto assisted the only goal as the Blues beat Nottingham Forest to claim fourth place and qualification for next season’s Champions League.
Chelsea are worthy favorites here (+115), having won 10 of their last 12 fixtures across all competitions, scoring 23 goals in the process. While Benfica haven’t beaten an English opponent in 11 years, a run of seven games.
A refreshed Pedro Neto can help blast his side into the last eight.
PSG vs Inter Miami – PSG to win to nil @ +120
PSG followed up their superb 5-0 thrashing of Inter Milan in the Champions League final by handing out a 4-0 beating to Atlético Madrid to open their account in the Club World Cup. The heavily backed pre-tournament favorites became even more well-supported in the market.
Botafogo then offered up something of a reality check before Luis Enrique’s side returned to winning ways with a 2-0 defeat of Seattle. Another MLS side awaits in the Round of 16, as does one of their former star players – namely, Inter Miami and Lionel Messi.
It was a slightly more pragmatic version of the Parisians we saw in the defeat of the Sounders. A win in a different style to the high-octane nature which saw them crowned champions of Europe, and a template I think they will look to follow again here.
PSG dominated the ball on Monday, having 72% share and didn’t allow a side with home field advantage a single shot on target. It is no surprise to see them priced at -500 to get the better of another MLS side here. Taking them to be leading at both halftime and full-time only boosts that price to -160.
However, a PSG win to nil is available at +120, and that looks massive value. Those two victories here mean their last four wins have come accompanied by a clean sheet.
There are not many better equipped than Luis Enrique to devise a plan to limit a 38-year-old Messi’s effectiveness or that of the man leading Miami’s attack – another former Barcelona legend, Luis Suarez, also 38.
The Asian Handicap line of -2.0 was tempting, but that bet is in the hands of PSG wanting to run up a score rather than just do enough. There are no extra benefits for landslide wins in knockout soccer, as shown by the two-goal margin of victory over Seattle. Additionally, their four wins prior to the Champions League final were achieved by a two-goal margin in one instance and by a single goal in the other three.
They could easily cash that bet, but for me, the win-to-nil is the way that offers greater value.
Flamengo vs Bayern Munich – Michael Olise to score or assist @ +100
As already mentioned, we were expecting this fixture in the last 16, but not in the way it came about. Flamengo topped Group D ahead of Chelsea, while a defeat to Benfica on match day 3 left Bayern qualifying as runners-up behind the Portuguese giants.
Vincent Kompany chose to rotate his starting lineup for that clash, understandable given the severe heat in which the game was played. His side’s performance in the second half following the introduction of Harry Kane, etc, underlined why they are a force to be reckoned with.
Flamengo, under the management of former Atlético Madrid and Chelsea defender Filipe Luís, have impressed and, as with all the Brazilian sides, will have plenty of support. They are used to winning with Luís guiding them to three trophies in the year he has been in charge and at the top of their domestic league with 24 points from the opening 11 games this season.
This has the makings of being the game of the round, with Flamengo a front-foot side who possess plenty of attacking threat, as shown by the fact they have scored in each group game and average 2.18 goals in Serie A. That, of course, is a dangerous game against such a potent attack as Bayern, and as a result, I am swerving the Moneyline market to sit back and enjoy the game.
Instead, my best bet here is a familiar one and a player we cashed on in the opening weekend of the competition. Michael Olise was a huge price (+114) to assist against Auckland, and given the step up in quality we are getting him to score OR assist here at the marginally shorter +100.
The former Crystal Palace man was named Bundesliga Rookie of the Season after his debut campaign in Germany, scoring 12 goals and assisting 17 more. He ended the season in sensational form, and he has carried that on at the Club World Cup.
Ahead of the tournament, the France international scored five goals and provided five assists in his last seven appearances for club and country, with at least one goal involvement in six of those fixtures. He scored and assisted in each of Bayern’s last four league games.
Olise has a competition-high six goal involvements ahead of the knockout phase, scoring three times and adding three assists. He looked the main threat for his side in the second half against Benfica and can add to his tally in what should be an open and attacking clash in Miami.
Other Club World Cup Preview Stories:
Tournament Betting Preview
Groups Preview
Top Goalscorers Betting Preview
Best Props
