Croatia vs. England
Dallas Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Wednesday, June 17th, 6:00 p.m. ET
Two sides who are no strangers to each other meet in Group L as England take on Croatia in what could prove to be the biggest match of the group stage. These nations have shared some memorable meetings in recent tournaments, from Croatia’s heartbreaking 2-1 extra-time win over England in the 2018 World Cup semi-final to England’s 1-0 victory at Euro 2021.
While head-to-head records are not always something I weigh heavily, I do think there is value in looking at previous meetings when nations know each other this well. Under 2.5 goals has landed in three of the last four matches between these sides, and based on recent form and playing styles, another low-scoring encounter could be on the cards.
Croatia remains a difficult team to break down and has conceded just four goals during qualification. England, meanwhile, was flawless, scoring 22 goals without conceding once and showing exactly why they are among the favorites to win this tournament.
That said, Croatia is an aging side. Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić and Ivan Perišić still form a huge part of this squad, and while their experience is invaluable, there are fair questions about how much can be asked of them over the course of a major tournament.
England’s recent numbers also support a lower-scoring game. Just one of their last 10 matches has seen both teams score, while only one of their last 6 has gone over 2.5 goals. Thomas Tuchel’s structure is already becoming clear. England needs to dominate possession, stay compact defensively and grind teams down without allowing many opportunities.
I am not fully convinced on a side in this match, but I do feel strongly about the game script. Between England’s defensive approach and Croatia’s experience and structure, this has all the makings of a cagey contest. Under 2.5 goals is my best bet of the day.
World Cup Best Bet: England vs Croatia – Under 2.5 Goals at -136
