MLB Best Bets Today June 16
Games in Cincinnati and Atlanta are threatened by rain today, but all 30 teams are scheduled to play on Tuesday. As usual, all of the games are late, giving those with some morning and early afternoon responsibilities the chance to handicap the card as time permits. We have a wide range of pitchers and matchups on the docket, so this is one that will take some time to sort through.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 16:
Giants vs. Braves Prediction
Pick: Over 9 (-105)
Adrian Houser and Grant Holmes are the slated starters for this one. This is a game threatened by rain and a delay could derail this wager, but I’m hoping for the best here. It certainly helps that the Braves get a boost with the return of Drake Baldwin from the IL, as he was extremely productive before suffering his injury.
There are 114 pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched this season. Houser and Holmes are tied for the 10th-lowest Stuff+ numbers at 89. Holmes is also a bottom-10 pitcher from a Pitching+ standpoint. These are two guys that don’t throw quality pitches. Holmes has a 45.2% Hard Hit% and a 10.2% Barrel%. Houser has a 44.1% Hard Hit% and a 9.9% Barrel%.
We’ll see if Houser’s switch to more four-seam fastballs last time out sticks or if he keeps throwing way too many sinkers, but he ranks in the bottom 12% in xERA, bottom 10% in xBA, bottom 10% in average exit velo, bottom 11% in Chase% and Whiff%, bottom 8% in K%, bottom 17% in Hard Hit% and bottom 23% in Barrel%. Those are all very bad numbers.
Holmes has had more success generating whiffs and chases, but most of his other metrics grade very poorly. Also, the Giants are fifth in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days at .364 with a .283/.355/.479 slash in that split.
The Giants have a 6.26 ERA, 5.66 xERA, and a 5.62 FIP as a bullpen over the last 14 days and a 5.66 ERA with a 5.11 xERA and a 5.03 FIP over the last 30 days. Atlanta has a distinct bullpen advantage here, but Holmes should be able to help the cause.
Guardians vs. Brewers Prediction
Pick: Under 8 (-104)
Personally, this series means a lot to me, as the Guardians are my team and the Brewers are my adopted NL team because they operate in a very similar way to Cleveland. One of the similarities is that both teams are very adept at finding pitchers and making something of them. Cleveland seems to be in the process of doing that with Slade Cecconi and Milwaukee has done that with a lot of guys, with Robert Gasser one of them.
Cecconi owns a 3.16 ERA with a 3.40 xERA and a 2.83 FIP over his last 37 innings. An altered pitch mix and more strikes have really helped. He’s still working around a .346 BABIP with a 77.9% LOB%, but he only has a 5.4% HR/FB% after having a lot of long ball issues early. He’s allowed two homers in that span.
Gasser allowed four homers last time out, but that start came in Las Vegas where every fly ball had the chance to go out. In his other three starts, he allowed eight runs (seven earned) on 12 hits over 13.1 innings of work. Walks have been an issue for Gasser, but he has 19 K in 18.1 innings and has held the opposition to a 30.4% Hard Hit% with an 8.9% Barrel%. There’s a reason why he has a 6.38 ERA, but a 3.68 xERA.
He doesn’t have enough data points to qualify for the Statcast percentile rankings, but he has an xBA against of .197 with a lot of pop ups and lazy fly balls, something that the Guardians have excelled at this season, sitting sixth in IFFB% (pop up rate).
Jose Ramirez is out for a while. Chase DeLauter probably won’t play today. Angel Martinez might, but he’s hitting just .220 this month after showing some early-season power. This was a bad Guardians lineup to begin with and is even worse now.
Both bullpens are extremely well-rested off yesterday’s off day. I’m not expecting many runs here.
Rays vs. Dodgers Prediction
Pick: Rays 1st 5 (+114); Rays +130
Tampa Bay dropped a tight one last night at Dodger Stadium with a 4-3 decision, but things look better for them here tonight in my estimation. First off, they’re sending Drew Rasmussen to the hill and he’s been fantastic with a 2.71 ERA, 2.89 xERA, and a 3.03 FIP in his 73 innings of work. He struck out 13 last time out and now has over a strikeout per inning with just a 4.6% BB%. He’s also allowed just eight homers in his 13 starts.
Rasmussen is a much better version of last night’s starter, Nick Martinez, who had six strikeouts against one walk. He was burned by a three-run homer by Kyle Tucker, but was mostly flawless outside of that second inning. Like Martinez, Rasmussen doesn’t really walk anybody. The Dodgers normally end up setting up a lot of innings with free passes.
Justin Wrobleski has a 2.95 ERA with a 4.19 xERA and a 3.67 FIP on the season. He’s been solid, but some regression does appear to be lurking. He’s allowed 16 of his 24 runs in three of his 11 starts, but he’s a low-strikeout, low-walk guy who has overperformed his batted ball outcomes. He has a .351 SLG against on his slider with a .486 xSLG. He has a .272 SLG against on his four-seamer with a .372 xSLG. His .267 wOBA is paired with a .320 xwOBA.
Wrobleski ranks in the 44th percentile in xERA, 24th percentile in xBA, and 26th percentile in Hard Hit%. He’s in the bottom 4% in Whiff% and bottom 7% in K%. Mix in just a .231 BABIP against with runners in scoring position and there are enough red flags here for me to take the Rays.
Because of Rasmussen, the Rays +114 for the 1st 5 is a depressed price on the full game. I’ll take them both since I like Rasmussen over Wrobleski and will also go for the better price if the Rays can hold the lead.
