England vs. Mexico
Mexico City Stadium, Mexico City
Sunday, July 5th, 8 p.m. ET
This has been the most anticipated game of the entire World Cup as England travel to the Estadio Azteca to face Mexico, who boast an outstanding record at this iconic venue, losing just two of their last 89 competitive matches there. The Azteca is ready for England, but the big question is whether England are ready for the Azteca.
Mexico have been faultless throughout this tournament. They have won all four of their matches, scored eight goals and are yet to concede. Several players even left their clubs early to join up with the national team ahead of the World Cup, and that extra preparation appears to have paid off. Up to this point, it has been difficult to find any weakness in this side, and I am sure they would have had this potential quarter-final circled for some time.
England’s path has been far less convincing. They were pushed all the way by DR Congo in the Round of 32, eventually coming through with a 2-1 victory, and they have started slowly in every match since their opener. Against a Mexico side playing at home, in front of a hostile crowd and at high altitude, I don’t expect England to fly out of the blocks here either.
England’s last six World Cup goals have all come after halftime, while Mexico are now facing by far one of the strongest defenses that is left in the competition.
Everything points towards a cagey opening. Nine of Mexico’s last 12 matches have finished Under 2.5 goals, while seven of England’s last 10 have done the same. Add in the occasion, the atmosphere and what is at stake, and I expect both sides to approach this one with caution.
That’s why my favorite angle is the Draw at Half Time at +100. It covers the outcome I expect most, a tense 0-0 opening 45 minutes, while also giving us protection if both sides manage to find a goal before the break.
World Cup Best Bet: Draw at Half Time +100
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