Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, July 4, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 44-25 (+20.14 units, ROI: 29.2%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-110 at HOU)
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 389-195 (66.6%) for +55.98 units and an ROI of 9.6%!
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-175 vs NYM)
Trend: SF is 27-11 (+18.11 units) against NL opponents with starter Robbie Ray since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-132 at COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. These teams have had a couple tough weeks lately, sitting at 139-116 for -11.76 units and an ROI of -4.6% on the season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-162 at WSH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 29-26 for –5.45 units (ROI -9.9%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-162 at WSH), CINCINNATI (-132 vs BAL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 47-81 for -37.22 units and an ROI of -29.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-157 vs MIN), LA ANGELS (+141 vs BOS), SAN DIEGO (+209 at LAD)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 96-122 for +2.66 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect. However, it has lost almost 7.29 units over the last three-and-a-half weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+134 vs PIT), ST LOUIS (+134 at CHC), ATHLETICS (+108 vs MIA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 43-24 for -10.02 units, ROI -15%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-259 vs SD)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 169-226 for -38.29 units. This ROI of -9.7% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+109 at CIN), TAMPA BAY (-110 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+141 vs BOS)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 145-94 for +33.22 units, an ROI of +13.9%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-120 at TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 114-140 start for -23.30 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 49-63 for -14.33 units and a solid ROI of -12.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ST LOUIS (+134 at CHC)
3-games – WASHINGTON (+134 vs PIT), COLORADO (+129 vs SF)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 87-88 for +10.66 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+129 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (+209 at LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2139-2017 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -263.72 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-101 vs DET), ST LOUIS (+134 at CHC), WASHINGTON (+130 vs PIT), COLORADO (+109 vs SF), MIAMI (-131 at ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2167-2741 (44.1%) for -269.50 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-156 at KC), MINNESOTA (+130 at NYY), TORONTO (+135 at SEA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 648-542 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.34 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-144 vs CWS), CINCINNATI (-132 vs BAL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 389-195 (66.6%) for +55.98 units and an ROI of 9.6%!
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-175 vs NYM)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 348-312 (52.7%) for +20.70 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs STL)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick em’s with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 145-105-17 (58%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-WSH (o/u at 10.5)
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 42-138 SU for -39.02 units (ROI: -21.7%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR SAN DIEGO at LAD (+209 CURRENTLY)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), UNDERDOGS between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 233-267 SU but for +49.58 units (ROI: 9.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+130 vs PIT)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more are on a 41-105 skid (-40.84 units, ROI -28%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+209 at LAD)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 19-24 (+7.91 units, ROI: 18.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 102-185 (-63.80 units, ROI: -22.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+209 at LAD)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 43-79 in their last 122 tries (-20.61 units, ROI: -16.9%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+209 at LAD)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams on 6+ game losing streaks playing in less-competitive divisional games (-150 or more favorite/+150 or more underdog) have had their totals go Over at a 66-48-8 (57.9%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SD-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 308-317 run (+11.74 units, ROI: 1.9%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA ANGELS (+141 vs BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 255-171 in their last 426 tries (+35.97 units, ROI: 8.4%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-110 at HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #12:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 44-25 (+20.14 units, ROI: 29.2%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-110 at HOU)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TEXAS -101 (+35 diff), WASHINGTON +134 (+25), KANSAS CITY +129 (+18)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: DET-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.9), TB-HOU OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIA-ATH UNDER 11 (-0.9), MIL-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.9), SF-COL UNDER 12 (-0.8), SD-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), BOS-LAA UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), PIT-WSH UNDER 10.5 (-0.5), MIN-NYY UNDER 10 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) PITTSBURGH (44-45) at (902) WASHINGTON (46-43)
Trend: PIT is 5-17 (-16.22 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-162 at WSH)
(903) ST LOUIS (46-39) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (49-39)
Trend: STL is 33-16 (+10.76 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at CHC)
Trend: CHC is 37-16 (+14.02 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs STL)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (36-52) at (906) ATLANTA (51-35)
Trend: Sean Manaea’s teams are 9-12 (-7.76 units) when he starts against NL East opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: NYM is 6-17 (-10.59 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+144 at ATL)
(907) SAN FRANCISCO (36-51) at (908) COLORADO (36-53)
Trend: Under the total is 20-10 (+9.10 units) when SF is favored with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-COL (o/u at 12)
Trend: SF is 27-11 (+18.11 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-132 at COL)
(909) MILWAUKEE (54-32) at (910) ARIZONA (43-44)
Trend: AZ is 12-25 (-9.96 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+129 vs MIL)
(911) SAN DIEGO (43-44) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (58-31)
Trend: Under the total is 31-22 (+6.80 units) in SD night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
(913) MINNESOTA (42-47) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (49-38)
Trend: Over the total is 30-18-5 (+10.20 units) when MIN is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-NYY (o/u at 10)
(919) CHICAGO-AL (45-42) at (920) CLEVELAND (47-42)
Trend: Over the total is 30-17-1 (+11.30 units) in CWS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
(921) TAMPA BAY (52-33) at (922) HOUSTON (43-47)
Trend: TB is 33-17 (+19.60 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 at HOU)
(923) BOSTON (38-48) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-53)
Trend: Under the total is 30-19-3 (+9.10 units) in BOS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-LAA (o/u at 8.5)
(927) PHILADELPHIA (49-39) at (928) KANSAS CITY (35-53)
Trend: KC is 15-27 (-9.15 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+129 vs PHI)
(929) MIAMI (47-42) at (930) ATHLETICS (41-47)
Trend: MIA is 28-22 (+11.32 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 at ATH)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Toronto at Seattle, Fri 7/3-Sun 7/5
Trend: Road teams are on a 13-5 (72.2%, +9.62 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 53.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+135 at SEA)
Series #6: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, Thu 7/2-Sun 7/5
Trend: Under the total is 21-9 (70%, +11.04 units) in the last 30 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 36.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Fri 7/3-Sun 7/5
Trend: COLORADO is 12-38 (24%, -20.47 units) in their last 50 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -40.9%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+109 vs SF)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing, the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): WASHINGTON, TORONTO, NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-ATH
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, July 6)
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