Happy 4th of July!
Today we have a loaded slate of Independence Day MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-110, 7.5) at Houston Astros
The Rays (52-33) took last night’s series opener 3-1, coming through as a -110 road pick’em.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rays hand the ball to righty Drew Rasmussen (7-4, 2.45 ERA) and the Astros (43-47) turn to fellow righty Hunter Brown (1-0, 1.78 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -115 home favorite and Tampa Bay a -105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Rays to post another road victory, as we’ve seen the line move slightly away from Houston (-115 to -110) and toward Tampa Bay (-105 to -110). Essentially, smart Rays money has pushed this game down to a pick’em.
At Circa, the Rays are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the road chalk from the wiseguys in the desert.
The Rays have cleaned up against bad teams, going 30-15 (67%) with a 17% ROI against teams with below .500 record, the best mark in baseball.
Tampa Bay is 39-21 (65%) with an 18% ROI when receiving line movement in their favor, also the best mark in MLB.
Rasmussen posted a 0.82 ERA in five June starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 33 innings pitched.
Tampa Bay is 32-18 in night games. Houston is 25-31.
8:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-155, 9) at Kansas City Royals
The Phillies (49-39) just split a four-game series against the Pirates, losing the series finale 6-1 as -135 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Royals (35-53) just got swept by the Rays, dropping the series finale 5-2 as +105 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Phillies tap lefty Jesus Luzardo (6-4, 3.88 ERA) and the Royals turn to righty Michael Wacha (5-5, 3.31 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -145 road favorite and Kansas City a +125 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Phillies on the road, pushing Philadelphia up from -145 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Philadelphia is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 82-45 (65%) with a 10% ROI this season. If they also made the playoffs the previous season, like the Phillies here, they improve to 47-21 (69%) with a 15% ROI this season.
4th of July favorites are 88-44 (67%) with a 13% ROI since 2015.
The Phillies are 7-0 in Luzardo’s last seven starts. He is 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, the Royals are 1-8 in Wacha’s last nine starts.
The Phillies are 24-18 on the road. The Royals are 19-25 at home.
9:38 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-165, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Red Sox (38-48) won last night’s series opener 5-2, cashing as -105 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Red Sox send out righty Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.69 ERA) and the Angels (36-53) start lefty Sam Aldegheri (3-3, 4.85 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -155 road favorite and Los Angeles a +135 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Red Sox to earn another road victory, driving Boston up from -155 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are taking in 90% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Boston is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
4th of July favorites are 88-44 (67%) with a 13% ROI since 2015.
Gray posted a 2.14 ERA in five June starts, giving up only 8 earned runs in 33.2 innings pitched. Boston is 11-3 in his last 14 starts. He is 6-1 with a 2.27 ERA in night games.
On the other hand, Aldegheri posted a 4.88 ERA in six June appearances, allowing 13 earned runs in 24 innings pitched.
Boston has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.42 (3rd in MLB) compared to 4.52 for Los Angeles (23rd).
The Red Sox are hitting .265 against lefties, 3rd best in MLB against southpaws. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is hitting just .239 against righties (24th).
