EPL Best Bets and Predictions November 29-30:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Manchester City vs. Leeds United
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
There were statement wins from English Premier League sides in the Champions League this week. But while Chelsea recorded a dominant 3-0 win over Barcelona and Arsenal posted a statement 3-1 victory against Bayern Munich, Manchester City suffered a rare 2-0 home defeat to Bayer Leverkusen.
Pep Guardiola made 10 changes to his starting eleven from the weekend loss at Newcastle, with Nico Gonzalez the only survivor, while the likes of Erling Haaland, Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku were rested on the bench. Time will tell if that was a correct decision to get minutes on the pitch for fringe players; we won’t know until the latter stages of the season.
The big guns will be back for this one. Leeds could be on the receiving end of an angry City keen to show they are still in this title race, especially with the top two, Chelsea and Arsenal meeting the day after this fixture.
This is not the first time Pep’s men have suffered successive defeats this season. After losses to Spurs and Brighton in August, they responded by thumping Manchester United 3-0 here at the Etihad.
I’m expecting a really big bounce back here with Erling Haaland returning to the side and chasing his 100th Premier League goal. If, or as is more likely when he scores on Saturday, he would set a record for reaching that milestone in the quickest time, smashing Alan Shearer’s current record by 14 games. That will also lead to the current odds of -435 for a Manchester City win contracting further.
With Haaland and company firing, I am expecting City to win this fairly comfortably. Leeds are dreadful on the road, losing five of their six road trips in the league to date, including a game at the Emirates, which I was at to see Arsenal batter them 5-0.
Daniel Farke has seen his side lose their last three away from home, scoring once and conceding eight. Losing games against Burnley, Brighton and Nottingham Forest by at least two goals.
The Asian Handicap is set at -1.75, and that is the bet I am taking at odds of -115. Despite Leeds being newly promoted, these sides have met quite recently in the Premier League, a total of four times between December 2021 and May 2023. The aggregate scoreline across those clashes is 16-2 to Manchester City.
This is a very poor version of Leeds United, with their manager under severe pressure and seemingly with no idea how to stop the flow of goals against.
EPL Bets Bets: Manchester City vs Leeds United – Manchester City -1.75 Asian Handicap at -115.
Aston Villa vs. Wolves
Sunday, 9:05 a.m. ET
Aston Villa are priced up here at -205 to be the latest team to beat Wolves. A reminder they would be the 11th side from 13 games to come out victorious against the Old Gold this season. I just can’t see any way they won’t do that.
However, -$2 is a rich price to pay, but my bet gets them onside and at plus money. It’s a Villa win to nil for me at +135.
The Villains are exceptionally strong at home, winning their last six across all competitions and 14 of the last 16. They have suffered just one defeat in their last 29 at Villa Park, recording 21 victories.
But while that has been well documented, I feel their defense is still very much underrated. In Emi Martinez, they have one of the best goalkeepers in the Premier League, Ezri Konsa has been exceptional, and Matty Cash is a brilliant modern-day fullback. The return of Youri Tielemans is massive, not just for how he pulls the strings in midfield, but also making them stronger.
Not only are Wolves getting beaten every week, but they are offering nothing going forward, especially on the road. In six away games, they have scored just once, and that came in a 1-1 tie with Spurs, losing the other five fixtures to nil.
Expect more of the same against this inform Villa side, who are now up to fourth in the table after a slow start and have won their last three at home without conceding. It would sometimes be a concern with their Europa League clash with Young Boys being on Thursday, but they have dealt with that extra workload superbly this season.
Unai Emery’s side have had a home game after each of their first four European fixtures this campaign and have won every one of them – the last two against Manchester City and Bournemouth coming to nil.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs Wolves – Aston Villa win to nil at +135.
Brentford vs. Burnley
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Despite their very strong home record, the -240 about Brentford to win this seems a very short price. However, you can understand why they are favorites with four wins and only one defeat from their opening six league games on home soil this term.
Those wins have come against Aston Villa, Manchester United, Liverpool and Newcastle, a very impressive collection of scalps already. However, that does fit the narrative that they raise their game when taking on the big boys.
When these two met here two seasons ago, the Bees were priced at -135. That seems a price much more in line with Brentford, and although they could and should win this, I am looking at a different market for my final selection of the week.
Burnley have been so strange this season, pragmatic, negative and defensive when playing at home, with their six games averaging just 1.83 and none cashing on Over 2.5 goals. On the road, they seem to open up and take teams on with their six road trips averaging 4.5 per game and the Clarets conceding at least twice in every fixture but scoring in all, bar their opening day 3-0 defeat to Tottenham.
As a result, all six Burnley away games have cashed for Over 2.5 goals, the most in the Premier League. Only Erling Haaland has scored more league goals than Brentford’s Igor Thiago, and he will be keen to add to his tally of nine here.
I was a little surprised to see the line set at 2.5, but I am more than happy to take that one and see Scott Parker’s men maintain that 100% road record of seeing at least three goals scored.
EPL Best Bet: Brentford vs Burnley – Over 2.5 goals at -124.
