EPL Best Bets and Predictions November 7-8
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Nine rounds into the Premier League and champions Arsenal sit alone at the summit with 24 points, three clear of Manchester City. Liverpool holds fifth with 15 points after a solid but unspectacular start. At the other end, Manchester United is only out of the relegation zone thanks to goal difference over Crystal Palace.
The midweek European slate added layers of fatigue and emotion. Liverpool faced a tough and fruitless trip to Turkey, Manchester United staged a dramatic comeback from 2-0 down to beat Roma, and Aston Villa suffered a defeat in Barcelona. With a two-week international break looming after this weekend, motivation levels will vary—some sides desperate for points, others managing minutes. Here are my three standout value bets.
Liverpool travel to Selhurst Park as clear favorites, sitting fifth with 15 points from nine games after four wins, three ties and two losses. They dominated long spells against Arsenal last weekend, hit the bar, should have had a penalty, but ultimately could not crack the code to breach the incredible defense of the champions.
They will not meet similar resistance on Sunday. Crystal Palace sit in the relegation zone with seven points after a difficult stretch that includes losing their last three, scoring just nine goals with a league high 21 conceded. The Eagles defense is not improving and they have now conceded multiple times in seven of their nine league games.
It’s not going to get any easier for them this weekend, with Liverpool looking to bounce back from successive defeats, having lost only one of their opening 13 games under Andoni Iraola. The visitors are -162 to get the job done in London but I like another angle at plus money which can cash regardless of the result.
Alexander Isak has been Liverpool’s primary threat, netting six league goals already and remaining the focal point of their attack. Palace not only have conceded the most goals in the league but also have the highest expected goals against.
Part of the reasoning for this is that opponents find different ways to score against them, rather than exploiting one key weakness. They do look particularly vulnerable from set-pieces, and although Isak isn’t known for having a target man profile, he has registered more headed attempts than any other Reds player. Only six players have had more than his six attempts in the entire league.
After a difficult first season at Anfield, the Swedish international’s availability and form see him look more like the prolific striker we saw at Newcastle. His movement, aerial ability, and finishing inside the box thrive in games like these with Palace likely to sit deep.
Isak started on the bench midweek but came on in the 66th minute and took just three minutes to score, so he should be fresh and confident coming into this clash. He has now scored in his last four road games for Liverpool and in two of his last three appearances against Palace.
At +105, the anytime scorer price offers clear value. Palace’s defensive record is the league’s worst and shows no sign of improvement, with Isak leading Liverpool’s scoring charts, and the visitors should dominate territory and shots. Expect the Swedish striker to find the net at least once as Liverpool look to go into the break back in the top four.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — Alexander Isak to Score at +105.
Fulham vs. Newcastle
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Fulham host Newcastle at Craven Cottage on Saturday, looking to leapfrog the visitors with a win. Both sides have been underwhelming so far but look to be trending in opposite directions.
I’ve faded the Cottagers a few times in the early weeks of the season, but they have shown signs of life with a couple of recent wins-to-nil and only one league defeat in six. They impressed me in their 1-1 tie at Aston Villa last Saturday, creating plenty of chances in a result home boss Unai Emery described as disappointing but fair.
Newcastle have struggled for consistency, particularly away from St James’ Park, where they have lost three of their last four, shipping 11 goals in the process. That included a 4-1 humiliation at Coventry, in what was a first win of the season for the newly promoted side.
Fulham have shaded recent meetings with three wins in the last five clashes but have won the last two on home soil. They will be confident of making that three successive wins here as although the 13th-placed Magpies are two positions higher than them in the table, the expected points table paints a much different picture.
Fulham are up in 8th while Newcastle is rock bottom. The Geordies were booed off by their own fans after a turgid, mistake-riddled and abject performance at home to Everton on Monday, a game they lost 1-0 but were lucky to do so.
Newcastle, under their current setup, have looked vulnerable on the road, and the +107 price on a Fulham win looks generous given the home advantage. This is a classic value spot where the market slightly overrates Newcastle’s name recognition relative to current form and availability.
EPL Best Bet: Fulham vs Newcastle – Fulham to win at +107.
Manchester United vs. Aston Villa
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
They may have had a glorious midweek Champions League comeback victory, but Manchester United host Aston Villa at Old Trafford on Sunday, desperate for domestic points. United sit 17th on just seven points, out of the relegation zone only on goal difference and still searching for a winning formula under their current regime.
United ended a winless run of nine games with their fightback against Roma on Tuesday but haven’t won a league game since August. Much of that comes down to their porous defense who are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league this season.
Villa were disappointing in that 1-1 tie with Fulham last weekend, but they missed a penalty and conceded the visitors’ goal, so they could have taken all three points. That extended their unbeaten run in the league to five games, which has seen them climb to 10th in the table and just three points outside the top five.
Unai Emery’s men recently handed Manchester City their first league defeat of the season and beat Tottenham and Newcastle in their last two Premier League road trips. They were far from disgraced in their midweek Champions League loss at Barcelona and are likely to have too much midfield energy for the home side suffering some key absentees.
Carlos Baleba, brought in for his ability to get about the pitch, has joined a lengthy injury list while Lisandro Martínez is suspended following his sending off at Chelsea. Head-to-head historically favors United heavily at Old Trafford, where they have won the last four league meetings, but current form tells a different story.
The market came for United on the day of the game against Como, Chelsea and Roma, but even at the current prices Villa seem a little disrespected at +205. That’s a price which enables us to take the +0.25 Asian Handicap, with a tie returning a half-win on the stake, and a Villa win lands in full.
At -115 this offers excellent value. United’s home form has been shaky, their defense remains fragile, and Villa’s counter-attacking threat, led by Nicolas Jackson, who has eight goals in 11 games, can punish transitions. With both sides managing European fatigue and the international break ahead, a tight, competitive game is likely.
Villa covering the handicap via tie or better aligns with the underlying metrics and recent trajectories far better than the raw moneyline suggests.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester United vs Aston Villa – Aston Villa +0.25 Asian Handicap at -115.
