NFL Survivor
I have found that one of the hardest things about Survivor contests is all of the second-guessing after the fact. As we all know, hindsight is 20/20 and the best-laid plans can go awry and all of those expressions and cliches, but it is really hard to be finished in the contest and look back at where you went wrong, how you went wrong, and why you went wrong. It can be entirely out of your control, where a double-digit favorite loses and the game just didn’t go your way. But, that doesn’t stop the mind from wondering about doing things differently.
I bring that up because Week 5 is one of those weeks. The importance of going 1-0 this week may overshadow the importance of going 18-0 or 20-0 for the season. The “coulda, woulda, and shoulda” of Circa Survivor and other Survivor pools often comes down to weeks like these. For those dealing with holiday weeks, the “best” pick on the board is a hard one to make. The next best pick might be on a team that has burned hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of Survivor entries in recent seasons. Perhaps the next best pick is on a team that hasn’t even won a game yet.
So, it’s a really rough week and one in which some tough decisions will have to be made following some tough discussions, whether those discussions are monologues or with the other parties who contributed to your entry. Then there’s also the opportunity either this week or after this week to use a marketplace like Survivor Sweat to offset a little bit of your exposure or get back in the game.
Once again, we’ll be using the Survivor tools from PoolGenius to plot out a course for the season and evaluate the pool picks each week.
Week 5 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Cowboys (-8) over Buccaneers
Thanksgiving be damned, right? It seems hard to believe that Jalon Daniels and the Bucs would go out to Arlington on a short week and beat the Cowboys. Daniels had eight carries for 55 yards, but also was just 19-of-27 for 148 yards with a touchdown, two picks, and three sacks against the Packers in his starting debut. With no threat of the deep ball, the Packers focused on stopping Bucky Irving and it worked, as he had 16 carries for 61 yards and a long of just seven yards.
As flawed as the Cowboys are, this is a spot that they should pick up the win. PoolGenius has them as the highest win probability favorite at 80%. However, they are a Thanksgiving “week” team and currently sit second in win probability on the PoolGenius Season Planner for that week at 65% against the Eagles. The Eagles obviously might get it going by then. They also might not and Dallas might be the top option out of the 10 that are available.
Personally, I’m a believer in holding as many of the holiday teams for as long as possible. That’s true here as well, even though I totally understand anybody looking to take Dallas. Per the PoolGenius Season Planner, this is the optimal spot to deploy them by win probability and if you don’t have to care about the holidays, it’s probably the move.
Texans (-7.5) over Titans
Just as we all expected. The 0-4 Texans against the 0-4 Titans. Slow starts aren’t really a new thing for Houston, but a start this bad is. That being said, they’ve lost three games by five or fewer points and have only been outscored by 25 points on the season. This is not a terrible team. They’re perhaps not as good as they have been and we can’t call it all bad luck, but suffice it to say that things should be looking up at some point.
Maybe that point is this week against a Tennessee team that has scored just 55 points in four games. Desperate doesn’t even begin to describe the scenario for Houston, as falling to 0-5 would absolutely decimate any of their playoff hopes. I’d say they’re on life support and the doctor’s hand is on the plug at 0-4. But, this should at least be a chance to get win No. 1. The Texans are exactly even in total yards gained and total yards allowed. They’re only -1 in TO margin. They haven’t allowed more than 89 rushing yards in a game.
The Titans are 30th in points per drive with 1.42. Defensively, Robert Saleh actually has them moving in the right direction, though, and that’s enough for me, especially with windy conditions that could create some shenanigans, to bypass the Texans. The one thing giving me pause is something I talk about a lot. You have to take 18 or 20 teams to win this thing, depending on your format.
Per PoolGenius, the Texans are 76% to win this week. Their only other game higher than that is Week 18 at home against Tennessee. Is this the week to use them?
Jaguars (-7.5) over Eagles
With back-to-back losses, including a fourth-quarter collapse against the Rams, the Eagles are apparently Public Enemy No. 1 in the betting community. The Jags were favored in their second home over the summer for this London matchup, but not to this magnitude. Philly does head across the pond without Saquon Barkley and with two wins by six combined points over teams that currently have a collective record of 1-7.
Jacksonville is plenty accustomed to playing in the UK, as they do it on an annual basis and recently started doing it twice-a-year. They’re also a pretty darn good football team. One bad half in Denver is the difference between 3-1 and 4-0 and the wins over the Browns and Patriots look a lot better in light of what we saw last week from those two teams.
Personally, I think the Jags are a bit overrated now. They are fourth in offensive points per drive and second in points allowed per drive, despite getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play. Their eight takeaways have a lot to do with how things have gone thus far. Also, they are second in red-zone conversion rate on offense and defense, fifth in third-down offense, and third in third-down defense. I don’t think all of those situational advantages are set in stone and they’re all probably ripe for regression.
That’s not to say that the Jags won’t win this game. They should, and PoolGenius agrees with a 75% win probability. But, there are some reasons to potentially shy away. I used the Jags back in Week 1. Even though the Bucs lost to the Browns, I’m still not repeating teams in hopes of providing relevant insights and suggestions.
Commanders (-4) over Giants
This is the game that I think won’t get enough appreciation this week. It’s entirely possible that Washington doesn’t get the job done here, but this is probably the most calculated risk on the card. Washington does not play on either holiday and there is no better time to use them, at least as of now. PoolGenius has them with a 62% win expectancy. They do not have another game higher than 57% the rest of the way. Three games above the 50th percentile are on the road and then they host the Falcons in Week 15.
The red flags are there, too, though. The Giants are off to a 3-1 start, though they have beaten the Titans and Cardinals the last two weeks. Washington just played in London, so it was a weird two-week stretch for professional athletes who are creatures of habit.
The weather looks like a problem here, with wind gusts in the 20-25 mph range and rain, so that does add an extra, concerning wrinkle. But, I do think that if you have multiple Survivor entries left, the Commanders are not a bad pick. Right now, I don’t see another time to take them that is as good as this one and it allows you to keep a holiday team and wait on a Houston team that should be in better form at some point.
NFL Week 5 Survivor Pick
Bengals (-6.5) over Dolphins
I already hate myself for this. The Bengals have destroyed the hopes and dreams of many Survivor entrants. They were hated all of last season for losing to the Patriots in Week 1 and Commanders in Week 3 as favorites of -8 and -7.5. Back in 2022, they lost in Week 1 and Week 2 as a touchdown favorite. They lost to the Jets in Week 8 back in 2021 as an 11.5-point favorite. Zac Taylor will not be getting many holiday fruit baskets.
Just like all of those games, this should be one that the Bengals can handle. Admittedly, I’ve picked against this team twice in the last two weeks because I wasn’t impressed with their start to the season. They only beat the Bucs by six despite recovering four fumbles. They were outgained by over 100 yards by the Texans. And then they’ve lost the last two games.
I do think we’re talking about a generationally-bad Dolphins team, though. They have only scored 1.24 points per drive. They’re getting crushed in the field-position battle. They’ve given up points on 50% of opponents’ possessions and have only scored on 27% of their own. There is a huge discrepancy between their passing offense and the opposition’s passing offense in this game, even if Ja’Marr Chase can’t go, though it looks like he will.
I hate this for so many reasons, but it’s probably the second-best time to take the Bengals. Week 8 at home against the Titans will be better. But with the bye coming up next week, Cincy should put everything into this game. I don’t think Miami has much to put into any game.
Pick: Bengals
Teams Used: Jaguars, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Vikings
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