EPL Best Bets and Predictions October 25-26:
Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action.
Chelsea vs. Sunderland
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I have thoroughly enjoyed what has been an incredible, goal-laden Champions League week, where for the first time I thought the top teams really stepped up and flexed their authority. There were big statement wins for the likes of Barcelona, PSG, and English duo Arsenal and Liverpool.
After enjoying several games in that competition, it’s time to return my focus to the Premier League. Unfortunately, many of the fixtures look as dull as the English weather on a weekend when the clocks go back an hour here in the UK, so look out for those unusual kickoff times on Sunday.
There are three games that do stand out, and my best bet comes in an interesting clash in London where the Club World Cup champions Chelsea take on newly promoted Sunderland. I’m liking what I see from the Blues more and more each week as a greater number of their huge squad get playing time and show what they are made of.
Let me say this now, Sunderland have started the season exceptionally well, sitting seventh in the table, winning games, and only Arsenal has conceded fewer goals. However, their best form has been when playing at their own stadium. No side has more points this term on home soil.
On the road, they have only scored once, and I am not convinced by them at all. They went to Burnley and lost 2-0. Their goalkeeper was the man of the match in a 0-0 tie at Crystal Palace. They won 1-0 at a struggling Nottingham Forest side, but most recently were easily beaten 2-0 again by Manchester United.
They visit a Chelsea side here who are absolutely flying. The beauty of their brilliant thrashing of Ajax in midweek was the number of youngsters given the chance to shine, and how they grabbed that opportunity with both hands.
There was a worry about how Enzo Maresca’s side would perform without their talisman Cole Palmer, but in his absence, they haven’t missed a beat. Helped by their opponent’s early red card, but without their main goalscorer Joao Pedro, they still scored five goals.
Moises Caicedo demonstrated once again why he is considered by many as the best midfielder in the Premier League, and Enzo Fernandez is now showing why Chelsea paid $140 million for his services. While his manager recently compared 18-year-old Estêvão to Cole Palmer, I think he could well be the hottest young talent in the top flight.
I may have been criticized for this in the past, but I am doubling down in saying I don’t think Chelsea is out of this season’s title race. If they can keep pace with the likes of Arsenal, this young side will only get better and better, so if they are within striking distance come April, they are to be feared.
Maresca’s men have now won four games across all competitions on the spin and have made Stamford Bridge a fortress. Of their last 13 home league games, they have only lost once and won 10, scoring 23 goals while conceding just nine.
Chelsea is priced at -245 to win this match. I am shocked we can bet them on the -1.25 Asian Handicap at odds of -110. If this match was on the first day of the season, I would expect the handicap line to be -1.75 at least.
This is Sunderland’s biggest challenge of the season so far, their first fixture against a genuine top-four contender, and I think they will fall well short.
EPL Best Bet: Chelsea vs. Sunderland – Chelsea -1.25 at -110.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City
Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Both these sides are improving nicely and growing into the season, but my bet here isn’t around any of the main line markets, result or goals. Manchester City are so much better than they were last season and are moving up my ratings on a weekly basis, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the -129 about them winning here against a tough Villa side.
What I am rushing to do, however, is bet on one man, and that man is Erling Haaland. The stats he is putting up are mind-blowing.
This season so far, the Norwegian has played 14 matches for club and country, incredibly scoring in 13 of them. Only drawing a blank against Tottenham on match day two in the Premier League.
Go back further and, including the Club World Cup in the summer, and Haaland has scored in 17 of his last 18 starts for City and Norway. Across those games, he has fired in a mind-boggling 28 goals!
His odds to score here (-120) are similar to that of his side winning, but it is by far a much safer bet. Since arriving in the Premier League, the 25-year-old, yes, he still is only 25, has scored 96 goals in 105 appearances after plundering 62 in 67 for Dortmund in the German Bundesliga.
Drilling into further detail, he has started 101 games in the Premier League and scored in 61 of those (60.4%) which gives implied odds of -153 for him to score. But for me, he has improved this season—he is stronger, fitter, and more lethal than ever.
Haaland is full of confidence right now, and arguably for the first time since arriving at City, Pep is getting his team to play to his striker’s strengths. We have seen a slightly more direct style, more willingness to get the ball into the penalty area, and even a couple of goals from explosive breakaway attacks from the defensive half.
Whichever way you look at it this bet, it is huge value.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs. Manchester City – Erling Haaland to score at -120.
Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET
We have a conundrum in this match. Your opinion on the outcome here will depend on whether you are someone who goes for historic trends or current form and what we have seen this season so far.
The last 10 meetings between these two sides have produced 39 goals. Last season, this same fixture ended 2-2 with Arsenal winning 5-1 in the reverse, and there was also a League Cup clash here which the Gunners won 3-2.
This season, Mikel Arteta’s men are now firm favorites to win the Premier League—as hot as -150 in places. That challenge has been built on a watertight defense, conceding just three goals in 12 fixtures across all competitions, with Newcastle, Manchester City and Liverpool the only sides to have scored against them.
Take those three games out of the season and Arsenal have scored 22 times without reply. Of their ten wins in the current campaign, nine of them have come to nil, and that is the way into this match for me.
Palace are still a great side and have had a fantastic start to the season, but they did have the distraction of a Europa Conference League fixture on Thursday. Although that was at home, it is still two days less recovery and prep time than Arsenal.
Although Jean-Philippe Mateta showed what a threat he was last week with that hat-trick against Bournemouth, this Gunners defense is like an immovable object, and I feel they can deal with him. With Eberechi Eze making the move to the Emirates in the summer, the home side also have the benefit of someone who knows the opposition strengths in detail—that can also be another telling factor.
So, for me, boosting the price of an Arsenal win from -250 to +110 on the basis they can do that and stop the Eagles from scoring looks a really nice value play.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace – Arsenal to win to nil at +110.
