Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, September 10, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites/pick ’em playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 55-24 SU for +17.25 units (ROI: 21.8%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-110 vs PIT)
Trend: SEA is 36-15 (+11.47 units) at home with starter Logan Gilbert versus AL opponents with a <=0.580 win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-130 vs TEX)
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 55-26 SU for +19.53 units (ROI: 24.1%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-127 vs TB)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 61-54 for -11.07 units for an ROI of -9.6%.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (+108 at SEA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. Since the start of the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 89-131 for -46.13 units and an ROI of -21%!
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+158 at PHI)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 145-219 start for -29.70 units (-8.2% ROI) after losing about 40 units over the 2-1/2 months.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+239 at NYY)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 43-21 but for -8.8 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NY YANKEES (-301 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 297-358 for -24.29 units, and comes off a rough three-week stretch giving back over 12.5 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+158 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-110 vs PIT)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 176-204 start for -40.77 units (ROI -10.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 77-99 for -21.19 units and a solid ROI of -12%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TAMPA BAY (+105 at ATL)
3-games – PITTSBURGH (-110 at CWS)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 153-177 for -1.04 units. However, it has lost -14.3 units over the last two months.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+239 at NYY)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 486-508 but for +34.75 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-127 vs TB), COLORADO (+239 at NYY)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 821-1068 but for +29.99 units and an ROI of 1.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+105 at ATL), HOUSTON (+158 at PHI), TEXAS (+108 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 422-482 but for +86.62 units and an ROI of 9.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+105 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’em playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 55-24 SU for +17.25 units (ROI: 21.8%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-110 vs PIT)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,230-2,112 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -274.86 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs HOU)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2301-2884 (44.4%) for -270.35 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+108 at SEA), COLORADO (+239 at NYY)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 55-26 SU for +19.53 units (ROI: 24.1%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-127 vs TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 619-609 for +20.17 units, good for +1.6% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: COLORADO +239 (+40 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -110 (+24)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 124-98 for +13.75 units and an ROI of 6.2%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: COL-NYY UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) TEXAS (72-74) at (902) SEATTLE (68-78)
Trend: TEX is 30-44 (-21.83 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 at SEA)
Trend: SEA is 36-15 (+11.47 units) at home with starter Logan Gilbert versus AL opponents with a <=0.580 win. pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-130 vs TEX)
Trend: Under the total is 33-14-4 (+17.65 units) when SEA is a home favorite within the -111 to -180 line range with starter Logan Gilbert since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-SEA (o/u at 6.5)
(903) TAMPA BAY (87-58) at (904) ATLANTA (85-61)
Trend: Nick Martinez’s teams are 3-11 (-6.84 units) when he starts as a road underdog vs NL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+105 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 33-18-3 (+13.00 units) when starter Nick Martinez is in higher-total games (o/u >= 8.5) since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-ATL (o/u at 8.5)
(905) HOUSTON (74-72) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (82-64)
Trend: HOU is 18-8 (+7.77 units) during the day with Cristian Javier in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+158 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 47-12 (+22.17 units) as a home favorites of -162 or higher with starter Zack Wheeler since the start of the 2020 season
Trend: PHI is 33-13 (+13.08 units) in the last 46 day game starts by Zack Wheeler
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs HOU)
(907) COLORADO (55-90) at (908) NEW YORK-AL (83-62)
Trend: Under the total is 67-48-5 (+14.20 units) when NYY is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
(909) PITTSBURGH (73-73) at (910) CHICAGO-AL (75-70)
Trend: PIT is 35-49 (-24.03 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-110 at CWS)
Top Head-to-Head Series Trends
Series #38: Houston at Philadelphia, Tue 9/8-Thu 9/10
Trend: Under the total is 12-2 (85.7%, +9.95 units) in the last 14 of the Astros-Phillies head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 71.1%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-PHI (o/u at 8.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-301 vs COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): TEXAS (+108 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-301 vs COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-127 vs TB), PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs HOU), NY YANKEES (-301 vs COL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-110 vs PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-127 vs TB)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, September 11)
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