France vs Spain | 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinal | Tuesday, July 14 | 3 p.m. ET | AT&T Stadium | Arlington
France (+135) | Draw (+220) | Spain (+220)
Over 2.5 Goals (-110) | Under 2.5 Goals (-110)
France -0.5 (+130) | Spain +0.5 (-160)
FRANCE VS SPAIN KEY TAKEAWAYS
France have been elite at both ends of the pitch, conceding just 0.97 combined xG across three knockout matches with no goals allowed
Mbappé leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals and sits second on the all-time World Cup scoring list (20) behind only Messi (21)
Didier Deschamps is stepping down after the tournament
Four teams remain. France and Spain—the two shortest-priced sides in the pre-tournament futures market—collide in Tuesday’s first semifinal at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
France powered past Morocco 2-0 at Boston Stadium on Thursday to reach a third consecutive World Cup semifinal. Kylian Mbappé overcame a first-half penalty miss—saved brilliantly by Yassine Bounou—to curl home a stunning opener on the hour mark, his eighth goal of the tournament. He turned provider six minutes later, slipping Ousmane Dembélé through to finish coolly for his fifth of the finals. Didier Deschamps’ side were rarely troubled after the break and looked every bit a team capable of lifting a third title.
Spain edged Belgium 2-1 at SoFi Stadium to extend their unbeaten run to 36 matches. Surprise starter Fabián Ruiz pounced on a Thibaut Courtois rebound to open the scoring, and though Charles De Ketelaere’s header leveled things before the break—ending Unai Simón’s record 650-minute shutout—substitute Mikel Merino settled it late, lashing home after replacement keeper Senne Lammens spilled a Pau Cubarsí drive.
Spain have won the last two meetings—a 2-1 Euro 2024 semifinal and a wild 5-4 Nations League final last June—and as Luis de la Fuente reminded reporters Friday: “We’re the only team that has managed to beat them twice.” Deschamps will want that debt settled. This is his final tournament after 14 years in charge, and the biggest outstanding mark on his ledger is the 2022 final loss to Argentina on penalties. Spain are a debt he can square up Tuesday on his way to settling that one.
FRANCE TEAM NEWS
Mbappé’s 77th-minute exit against Morocco raised eyebrows, but the captain and Golden Boot leader downplayed the issue after the match. “I took a knock to the ankle, but I’m fine,” he said.
Aurélien Tchouaméni was named on the bench against Morocco and has returned to full training. He could replace Manu Koné, who was taken off as a precaution due to a knee issue. Désiré Doué’s assist against Morocco and the penalty he won against Paraguay should be enough to keep his starting place ahead of Bradley Barcola on the left.
With the yellow card slate wiped clean after the quarterfinal stage, there are no suspension concerns for France.
France Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Didier Deschamps
GK: M. Maignan
RB: J. Koundé | CB: W. Saliba | CB: D. Upamecano | LB: L. Digne
CM: A. Tchouaméni | CM: A. Rabiot
RM: O. Dembélé | AM: M. Olise | LM: D. Doué
CF: K. Mbappé (C)
SPAIN TEAM NEWS
Nico Williams’ appearance off the bench against Belgium is a boost for Spain fans. Álex Baena has done an excellent job deputizing on the left but lacks the pace and directness of Williams, which Spain have missed in the attacking third. It remains to be seen whether De la Fuente restores him to the starting lineup — I don’t think he will.
Mikel Merino staked his claim for a starting role after scoring off the bench again in the victory over Belgium. Expect Pedri restored in central midfield with Fabián Ruiz the man to make way — despite his opening goal against Belgium.
Spain Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Luis de la Fuente
GK: U. Simón
RB: P. Porro | CB: P. Cubarsí | CB: A. Laporte | LB: M. Cucurella
CM: Rodri (C) | CM: Pedri
RM: L. Yamal | AM: D. Olmo | LM: A. Baena
CF: M. Oyarzabal
FRANCE VS SPAIN MATCH BETTING ANALYSIS
In my France vs. Morocco Preview, I predicted Deschamps would switch to a 4-3-3. He didn’t. The 4-2-3-1 worked perfectly with France bossing proceedings, and he’s clearly committed to the shape — at this point it would be a surprise to see him abandon it. That said, with Tchouaméni available again alongside Koné and Rabiot, a 4-3-3 remains in his back pocket if his cautious instincts kick in and he decides to add numbers in central midfield against Spain.
Pedri’s omission against Belgium was the biggest surprise of Spain’s quarterfinal. De la Fuente traded midfield control for the more direct threat of Fabián Ruiz, and while Ruiz rewarded the call with the opener, Spain were noticeably less dominant in possession. Kevin De Bruyne’s playmaking and Belgium’s transitions found space that may not have existed with Pedri dictating the tempo and recycling possession. France won’t be as forgiving in transition. Olise, Dembélé, Doué and Mbappé have the quality and pace to punish those gaps. Pedri returns alongside Rodri on Tuesday with Cubarsí, Laporte and Unai Simón making up the spine of the team.
With defense and central midfield set, the only selection questions facing De la Fuente are his front four. I’ll start with Dani Olmo. I’ve followed this guy for years and I’m a big fan of his time at RB Leipzig. He’s a creative force — his touch, vision, movement and ability to play key passes and through balls make him capable of unlocking the tightest defenses. The only things holding him back from being considered one of the best are his finishing and assist numbers. He’s hit double figures for goals just once — at Barcelona in 24/25 — and double figures for assists just once — at RB Leipzig in 20/21. For Spain, he has just one assist this tournament, against Saudi Arabia. He’s started all three knockout games. Expect a fourth.
Left wing has been Spain’s biggest problem all tournament. Nico Williams’ injury issues have led to Álex Baena starting more than expected, and while he’s a hardworking, intelligent and creative playmaker with a goal and an assist to his name, he’s not the explosive winger Williams is. He lacks the blistering pace, flair and 1v1 dribbling ability that troubles defenders. Williams came off the bench against Belgium in the 79th minute with the game level at 1-1. De la Fuente wouldn’t have introduced him at that stage unless he was confident Williams could handle extra time if it came to that. I still think it’s too soon to start him, and De la Fuente will stick with Baena from the first whistle.
Oyarzabal has frustrated more than he’s shone despite four goals and an assist — and the same could be said of Spain’s attack as a whole, which brings us to Yamal. I wrote in my Spain vs. Belgium Preview about how every day Spain stay in this tournament is a day Yamal gets closer to full fitness and form. If he was going to announce himself on the World Cup stage, Belgium was his best opportunity. Don’t be fooled by his Superior Player of the Match award — FIFA have been favoring the big names with these awards throughout the tournament. Yamal started brightly but faded as the match wore on, a sign that the hamstring injury he sustained in late April is still limiting him. When you’re a generational talent, you start regardless.
France’s attack has had no such issues. Mbappé is leading the Golden Boot race with eight goals and three assists and sits second on the all-time World Cup scoring list (20) behind only Lionel Messi (21). Dembélé has been nearly as prolific with five goals and two assists, while Olise leads the tournament with five assists. Barcola and Doué have chipped in with two goals and a goal respectively, with an assist apiece.
Strip this semifinal down to its simplest terms and it’s the best attack in the tournament against the best defense. France have firepower everywhere — Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise, Doué, Barcola — while Spain went 650 minutes without conceding before De Ketelaere’s header against Belgium. Which side imposes its identity on the day probably decides the match — and maybe the tournament.
FRANCE VS SPAIN BETTING PICK
Spain’s defensive record has dominated the narrative, but France’s numbers in the knockout rounds tell their own story. Per Sofascore, Deschamps’ side have allowed just 0.70, 0.13 and 0.14 xG across their three knockout matches with no goals conceded. Pair that with the tournament’s most prolific attack and that’s elite at both ends.
What makes those numbers even more impressive is that France haven’t had to break a sweat to produce them. The only time they were remotely tested was against Paraguay, and that was a test of composure rather than footballing ability. Their dismantling of Morocco was arguably more impressive — Morocco were disappointing and far from their best, but France still controlled the match with ease. They’ve strolled into the semifinals without going above fourth gear. The scary part for Spain is the feeling that Deschamps’ side have two or three more gears to go through if Tuesday demands it.
France Moneyline at +135 is my pick for this game. I’m backing a side that has been elite at both ends of the pitch without having to fully flex yet. Spain needed late goals to see off both Portugal and Belgium — the same substitute, Mikel Merino, coming off the bench to score winners in the 90th and 88th minutes respectively. That’s not the sign of a team in cruise control, and it’s not the sign of one that has found its attacking rhythm. I’ll be surprised if they find it against France on Tuesday.
Deschamps’ last dance will have a final act. Back France to end Spain’s historic 36-game unbeaten run.
France vs Spain Betting Pick: France Moneyline +135
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