VSiN soccer contributor, finder of “The Angle” for college basketball, and Follow The Money producer Luke DiVasta shares his favorite MLS picks for Saturday, May 2.
Odds as of April 30, 10 p.m. ET
Another full slate of MLS action is upon us this weekend. Although it may be lost in the shuffle with the Kentucky Derby and the NBA and NHL postseasons, I think that continues to give us some edges. Not many people are focused on this league right now, so it should provide some strong opportunities and mismatches. I’ve found a lot of disparity in early-season form that has paid off, and this weekend is no different.
Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders
2:30 p.m. ET
Sporting Kansas City (+320) | Draw (+290) | Seattle Sounders (-140)
Over 2.5 Goals (-165) | Under 2.5 Goals (+130)
Sporting Kansas City | 1-1-7 | 15th in Western Conference
Seattle Sounders | 6-1-1 | 4th in Western Conference
These two clubs are trending in vastly different directions at this point in the season. Let’s begin with the struggles of Sporting Kansas City. They may be in the worst shape of any club currently in the MLS. Losers of five straight MLS matchups, they have been outscored 18-3 in that span. To make matters worse, they also lost their U.S. Open Cup match to USL side Colorado Springs 3-0.
It has been a truly devastating run of form for Sporting KC, and it is tough to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Sporting KC ranks dead last by a wide margin in expected goals (xG) this season, with just 6.02 xG through nine matches. They also rank dead last in shots on target and sit in the bottom third of the league in accurate shooting percentage.
When we check in on their opponents, the picture is very different. Seattle rolls into this meeting with a 4-1-0 record in their last five MLS matches. The Sounders are 3-0-0 in their last three meetings with Sporting KC, including a 5-2 win this past August.
Seattle is not necessarily a high-flying team—they rank second in xG with 10.12—but they lead the entire MLS in shot accuracy, putting more of their shots on target than any other side. They also rank fourth in the league with the fewest shots conceded. Their defense stifles opponents, and their clinical finishing allows them to score.
I think this match leans heavily toward Seattle, just as the odds imply. I’m not going to lay the juice myself, but if that’s something you’re more comfortable with, I wouldn’t talk you down. I do think this one is worth a spread bet.
Pick: Seattle Sounders -1.5 (+180)
