Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, May 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 21-5 (80.8%, +14.67 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 56.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-115 at ATH)
Trend: SEA is 21-5 (+13.70 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-149 vs KC)
* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 150-148 (-58.69 units, ROI: -19.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+149 vs LAD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a 63-44 start for +1.54 units and an ROI of +1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+100 at DET), NY METS (-126 at LAA)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 15-28 for -16.05 units and an ROI of -37.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-126 vs HOU), SAN DIEGO (-156 vs CWS)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 62-39 start for +2.98 units and an ROI of +3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-156 at WSH), TEXAS (+100 at DET), SEATTLE (-149 vs KC)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 31-37 for +10.13 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+129 vs MIL), MINNESOTA (-112 vs TOR), LA ANGELS (+104 vs NYM)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slow start, 58-69 for -4.81 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+113 at PIT), MIAMI (+100 vs PHI), TEXAS (+100 at DET), TORONTO (-108 at MIN), SAN FRANCISCO (+123 at TB)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 30-40 start for -6.62 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 12-20 for -6.42 units and an ROI of -20%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (+129 vs MIL), ATHLETICS (-105 vs CLE)
3+ games – PHILADELPHIA (-120 at MIA), ST LOUIS (+149 vs LAD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and the overall season record is now 31-37 for -1.22 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-136 vs CIN), LA ANGELS (+104 vs NYM)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 453-367 for +30.75 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-120 at MIA), ST LOUIS (+149 vs LAD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at SD)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 220-165 for +18.70 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-120 at MIA), NY METS (-126 at LAA), CLEVELAND (-115 at ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 137-175 for -35.27 units and an ROI of -11.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-105 vs CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 384-327 but for -79.39 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-143 vs AZ), DETROIT (-120 vs TEX), BOSTON (-126 vs HOU), TAMPA BAY (-149 vs SF), SEATTLE (-149 vs KC)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 411-356 record for +51.80 units and an ROI of 6.8% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+113 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (-156 at WSH), HOUSTON (+104 at BOS), PHILADELPHIA (-120 at MIA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2028-1925 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -271.63 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, ST LOUIS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2032-2598 (43.9%) for -265.74 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO, ATLANTA, TORONTO
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4114-3573 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -517.26 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, DETROIT, ST LOUIS, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, ATHLETICS, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 610-504 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.60 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-186 vs BAL), TAMPA BAY (-149 vs SF)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 185-217 SU record for +41.07 units and an ROI of 10.2% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+153 at NYY)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB ROAD FAVORITES of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 71-42 SU for +13.75 units (ROI: 12.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-126 at LAA)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 216-248 SU but for +45.95 units (ROI: 9.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+159 vs ATL)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 488-553 SU but for +73.71 units (ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 166-176 SU for +40.78 units in the last 342 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+119 at CHC), BALTIMORE (+153 at NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (+123 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+123 at SEA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 150-148 (-58.69 units, ROI: -19.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+149 vs LAD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATHLETICS -105 (+24 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -149 (+38 diff), SAN DIEGO -156 (+20)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-STL OVER 8 (+1.4), MIL-WSH OVER 8 (+0.8), TEX-DET OVER 7.5 (+0.6), BAL-NYY OVER 8.5 (+0.6), TOR-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CLE-ATH UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) ARIZONA (16-14) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (19-12)
Trend: CHC is 5-13 (-10.22 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs AZ)
(903) CINCINNATI (20-11) at (904) PITTSBURGH (16-16)
Trend: PIT is 11-25 (-10.14 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-136 vs CIN)
(905) MILWAUKEE (16-14) at (906) WASHINGTON (15-17)
Trend: WSH is 8-23 (-10.96 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+129 vs MIL)
Trend: Over the total is 10-2-1 (+7.80 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-WSH (o/u at 8)
(911) ATLANTA (22-10) at (912) COLORADO (14-18)
Trend: ATL is 2-10 (-14.98 units) versus non-divisional teams with a losing record with starter Grant Holmes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-186 at COL)
Trend: Jose Quintana’s teams are 2-6 (-4.11 units) in his last eight starts vs Atlanta
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+153 vs ATL)
(919) TORONTO (14-17) at (920) MINNESOTA (14-18)
Trend: MIN is 19-12 (+5.87 units) against teams with a <= 0.500 win pct with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-112 vs TOR)
(921) CLEVELAND (16-16) at (922) ATHLETICS (17-14)
Trend: Under the total is 7-1 (+5.90 units) when ATH faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
(923) KANSAS CITY (12-19) at (924) SEATTLE (16-16)
Trend: KC is 1-10 (-8.74 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend: SEA is 21-5 (+13.70 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-149 vs KC)
(925) SAN FRANCISCO (13-18) at (926) TAMPA BAY (18-12)
Trend: SF is 8-2 (+7.95 units) in road night games with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+123 at TB)
Trend: TB is 5-1 (+4.72 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-149 vs SF)
(927) NEW YORK-NL (10-21) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (12-20)
Trend: NYM is 8-15 (-17.05 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-126 at LAA)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #3: Arizona at Chicago Cubs, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: Underdogs are 17-9 (65.4%, +10.12 units) in the last 26 of the AZ-CHC series.
– The ROI on this trend is 38.9%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+119 at CHC)
Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: CINCINNATI is 7-17 (29.2%, -11.30 units) in the last 24 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -47.1%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+113 at PIT)
Series #21: Colorado at Atlanta, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: Atlanta has won 20 of the last 26 games against Colorado (76.9%, +3.87 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 14.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-186 at COL)
Series #31: Cleveland at Athletics, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 21-5 (80.8%, +14.67 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 56.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-115 at ATH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%. Diving deeper into specifics, these four different systems will continue to be tracked for 2026:
– Majority handle bettors backing home favorites in the months of May, June, and July games of 2024-25 were 656-480 (57.7%) but for -137.9 units and an ROI of -12.1%, a full 3.6% worse than the normal return.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, BOSTON, TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO, SEATTLE
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities,
NY METS
Letdown after series vs. WASHINGTON: 13-21 (38.2%) -17.28 units, ROI: -50.8%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-126 at LAA)
