Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 1. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Friday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Friday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. That’s also where you’ll find any late adds to my card. I go way lighter on these than I do NBA/NFL/CBB/CFB/Tennis. I also take a volume approach, as I’m working with a system I have found to be successful when it comes to shopping prices. So, if you notice I’m throwing a ton of plays up on a daily basis, don’t assume I’m putting a standard unit on all of them. My MLB units are 40% of what my normal units are.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-108) vs. Orioles
Orioles at Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
Judge is on pace for 63 homers and 105 RBIs this season. Some of his numbers are bound to increase in the coming weeks, but he’s still one of the most dangerous hitters in the game — and being fourth in MLB in SLG (.622) proves that. Well, Judge will be playing at home against a left-handed starter on Friday night. That’s always a plus matchup for New York’s star slugger. Also, while Cade Povich has looked great this season, the 26-year-old has struggled against Judge. It’s a very small sample size, but Judge is 2 for 3 with two homers against the lefty. That makes it hard not to take the Over on total bases with the juice being extremely reasonable.
Robbie Ray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125) vs. Rays
Giants at Rays – 7:10 pm ET
The Rays really don’t strike out very often. This season, only the Blue Jays have a lower strikeout rate than their 19.1% mark, so I wouldn’t say this is the greatest matchup in the world. However, Tampa is a little worse against lefties. Plus, this is more of a play on Ray than a play against the Rays. This just feels like too good of a price to turn down with a pitcher that has at least six strikeouts in four of his last five starts. Ray has also had at least six strikeouts in his two road starts this year. I’ll also note that Tampa did have a strikeout rate of 24.5% against lefties a year ago, so perhaps the team is going to start striking out a little more often soon.
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-102) vs. Marlins
Phillies at Marlins – 7:10 pm ET
I had Schwarber to go Over this same number on Thursday. Boy, did he deliver. Schwarber only had one hit in the game, but it was a first-inning bomb to make for a no-sweat cash. Now, I’m going back to Schwarber to come through against the Marlins. Going up against Eury Perez isn’t the greatest matchup in the world, as the 23-year-old has some impressive stuff. Schwarber is also 0 for 3 against him in his career. However, at just -102, how can you not play Schwarber to produce against a righty? He’s averaging 2.7 HRR per game versus righties this season, and he averaged 2.3 HRR per game against them in each of the previous two years. This is also a pretty hitter-friendly ball park.
Additional Best Bets
More coming Friday morning.
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Carter Jensen Over 1.5 Total Bases (+177) vs. Mariners
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.94 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -136 — a +21.6% edge to the Over.
Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-151) vs. Dodgers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.64 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -415 — a +20.4% edge to the Over.
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (+167) vs. Cubs
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.92 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -134 — a +19.8% edge to the Over.
