USA vs. Belgium
Seattle Stadium, Seattle, Washington
Monday, July 6th, 8 p.m. ET
The USA take on Belgium in what is the closest-priced Round of 16 matchup of the tournament, with the bookmakers struggling to split the two sides. Mauricio Pochettino’s young squad have home support on their side, while Belgium arguably possess the stronger squad on paper and the experience that comes with it. It should make for one of the best games of the knockout stage.
Rather than trying to pick a side, I think the value lies in the goals market. Over 2.5 Goals at -125 looks a generous price given what both teams have shown so far.
The USA have been one of the tournament’s most entertaining teams, scoring at least twice in all four of their World Cup matches and finding the net 10 times in total. Belgium started the competition slowly but have hit their stride, scoring seven goals across their last two matches in normal time. That gives me plenty of confidence they can contribute here, especially against a USA defense that conceded three goals to Turkey, the strongest attack they have faced so far.
The conditions should also help. Unlike some matches affected by heat and altitude, Seattle’s weather is unlikely to have much impact, allowing both sides to play at the intensity they prefer.
Folarin Balogun is a big loss for the USA, but the return of a fully fit Christian Pulisic is a huge boost. Ricardo Pepi is expected to lead the line and, while he is still searching for consistency at the international level, his club form speaks for itself after scoring 16 league goals in just 26 appearances for PSV.
The numbers also support a high-scoring game. The USA’s last nine internationals have averaged 4.1 goals per match, while Belgium have attempted a tournament-high 92 shots across their four games. Everything points towards chances at both ends, making Over 2.5 Goals at -125 my favorite bet of the day.
World Cup Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals -125
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