MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, July 5.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:00 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli owns a 3.69 ERA with an even lower 3.22 fielding independent with allowing 0.7 home runs per nine innings. He is getting 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has a 4.62 ERA with five walks per nine innings allowed. He is allowing only 0.9 home runs per nine innings and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five starts.
Pick: Pirates vs. Nationals Under 9.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.8)
3:30 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize has been superb this season with a 2.63 ERA and 2.51 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings allowed. Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker has a 3.83 ERA with 7.9 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. Rocker is supported by a lineup that is 26th in scoring at home with just over 3.8 runs per game, while the Tigers are 20th with 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -108
(Greg’s Handicap Tigers -126)
4:00 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Giants starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has a 5.67 ERA but a lower 4.87 fielding independent with 1.6 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon has a 6.69 ERA, but his 4.18 fielding independent points towards positivity with 8.7 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings. He faces a Giants lineup that is 24th in scoring with just over four runs per game.
Pick: Giants vs. Rockies Under 13 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 11.8)
4:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat owns a 5.28 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 2.21 ERA but a much higher 3.98 fielding independent with 6.3 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings. Rodriguez faces a Brewers lineup that ranks third in scoring with nearly 5.2 runs per game.
Picks: Diamondbacks Moneyline +105 and Over 9 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Diamondbacks -125 and Total 9.6)
4:30 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics
Athletics starting pitcher Gage Jump owns a 2.93 ERA and 2.66 fielding independent with nine strikeouts per nine innings, with 0.5 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 5.03. Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez has a 4.21 ERA with 1.6 home runs and four walks per nine innings. For his career, Perez has a lifetime 2.68 home ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 4.99 ERA away from home with 1.8 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Marlins vs. Athletics Over 9.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 10.3)
5:00 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage owns a 3.34 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings, which dips to a 2.22 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings. Mariners starting pitcher Emerson Hancock has a 3.47 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 28th in road scoring with 3.8 runs per game. The Mariners are sixth in bullpen ERA at 3.56.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Mariners Under 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.1)
