Australian Open Betting Preview and Futures
The 2023 tennis season feels like it ended just yesterday, but the 2024 Australian Open is here. On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic will be looking to defend last year’s title, and the 24-time Grand Slam champion will also be hoping to win this event for the 11th time. However, players like Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are in Melbourne Park, and none of them will be going down without a fight. As for the women, it’s Aryna Sabalenka that is the defending champion Down Under. The Belarusian won her first career major in last year’s Australian Open, but defending that title will be difficult. Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff and others are all gunning for the top spot. Throughout the course of the 2024 tennis season, VSiN will have you covered with pre-tournament betting previews, complete with bracket breakdowns and bets for the futures market. We’ll also have daily best bet writeups for some of the biggest events of the year. With that in mind, keep reading for our 2024 Australian Open betting preview.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Australian Open Men’s Bracket Analysis
Click here to view the men’s draw
Quarter 1: Novak Djokovic likely won’t be tested until the quarterfinals, where he’d potentially meet Stefanos Tsitsipas or Taylor Fritz. I don’t think either player is capable of beating him at this event, and I think Fritz is on Upset Watch in the third round — where he could face Francisco Cerundolo, Fabian Marozsan or Marin Cilic). Tsitsipas also happens to have a tough matchup in the opening round, as he’s set to face Matteo Berrettini. That’s one that could end up being a lengthy battle. But overall, this is the weakest quarter on the men’s side, which is why Djokovic is such a heavy favorite to cruise to the semifinals.
Quarter 2: I actually don’t like the early draw for Jannik Sinner, as Botic Van De Zandschulp isn’t a slouch. But I think the Italian will win — even if he has to work a little harder than expected — and I’m not too concerned about potential matchups against Frances Tiafoe (if he gets by Borna Coric) or Karen Khachanov in the fourth round. And Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev are both good draws for Sinner as potential quarter-final opponents. Rublev actually has a tough draw throughout, so he might not even make it there. Plus, De Minaur gets Milos Raonic in the first round. That’s not an easy opponent for the Australian. De Minaur could also get Matteo Arnaldi in the second round, and Nicolas Jarry in the third. Both would be really tough opponents at that point in the tournament, making it hard to envision De Minaur making a run in front of his home fans. Sinner really has a nice path to the semifinals.
Quarter 3: Last year, I would have loved the draw for Holger Rune. But I can see him getting tripped up anywhere right now. Yoshihito Nishioka is a tough first round opponent, and Arthur Fils, Roman Safiullin or Tallon Griekspoor are extremely difficult third round matchups. If he somehow gets by those, it’s Hubert Hurkacz in the fourth round — one of my players to watch this event. On the bottom portion of this quarter, it’s hard to envision anything but a fourth round matchup between Grigor Dimitrov and Daniil Medvedev. I’d give the edge to Medvedev there and think he’ll make a deep run at this event. But Dimitrov is playing incredible right now, so there’s a chance he spoils the party.
Quarter 4: I’m nervous about a potential second round matchup with Australian Max Purcell, but I think Casper Ruud will make his way to a fourth round clash with Alexander Zverev. And I actually like Ruud to get the job done there. Ruud has won his last two matches against Zverev, with one being a straight-set win in last year’s French Open. I think his steadiness is big in that matchup. But can he beat Alcaraz? I think there’s a shot. I’m nervous about the Spaniard here, as he’s playing without Juan Carlos Ferrero in the stands. That has been his rock throughout the blistering hot start to his career.
Australian Open Men’s Futures
Hurkacz To Win Quarter 3 (+1000 – 0.25 units): Hurkacz is arguably the best server on the planet, as he has the third-best hold percentage in the men’s game over the last 52 weeks. He absolutely bombs serves and that is going to make him tough to beat in Australia. These courts are very fast and the ball bounces low, so opponents are going to have a hard time even getting break point opportunities here. That gives Hurkacz an insanely high floor, as I trust him to come away with some breaks of his own. Or the big man can just go out and handle his business in tiebreakers. Hurkacz also happens to be in the best section of the draw, as the highest-seeded player that he’s slated to face before the quarterfinals is a struggling Rune. I’m not sure I’d like Hurkacz to beat Medvedev for a spot in the semis, but this bet could be hedged for a guaranteed profit at that point.
Ruud To Win Quarter 3 (+1200 – 0.25 units): Ruud was fatigued early in the season last year, and he didn’t end up playing his best tennis until the summer. This year, he’s a lot more focused early on, so I think he has a chance to make a deep run in Melbourne. Ruud is in Zverev’s portion of the draw, but he has won two matches in a row against the German. Ruud is just a much sturdier player than him, capable of remaining even keeled while Zverev’s play comes and goes. That said, I’d like Ruud’s chances of beating Zverev. The question then becomes whether he can beat Alcaraz. Normally I’d say that’s a really tough task, but this is going to be Alcaraz at his most vulnerable. His confidence seemed to drop a little towards the end of 2023, and he’ll be playing this tournament without Juan Carlos Ferrero in the stands. That’s Alcaraz’s rock and he might miss having him there for support and guidance, leaving the door open for Ruud to make another run to the semis at a Grand Slam.
Sinner To Win Australian Open (+700): Sinner is going to have to go through Djokovic to win, so I don’t mind that it might have to be in the semifinals. The Italian beat Djokovic twice in the span of a week towards the end of last season, and I believe he is firmly in the top tier in the men’s game at this point. For most of last year, that was a group that included only Djokovic and Alcaraz. But Sinner’s Masters 1000 win in Toronto, combined with his consistent dominance towards the end of 2023, felt like an arrival. Sinner also happened to be top five in both hold and break percentage last year, which is something that is historically hard to accomplish. And the courts in Australia should bring out the best in him, as he has insane power and a complete game. I think the winner of the semi-final match between Sinner and Djokovic will lift the trophy in Melbourne. But Sinner is a much better bet than Djokovic because of his odds.
Medvedev To Win Australian Open (+1100 – 0.5 units): I’m not quite sure I’d like Medvedev’s chances to beat Sinner or Djokovic in the final, but he’s an enticing bet because he’s on his own side of the bracket. I simply love Medvedev’s chances of reaching the final here, as he’s an elite hard-court player and has a favorable draw. Medvedev has also made it to the finals of this event twice in his career (2021, 2022), so we know he’s capable of making a run Down Under. With that in mind, I’m grabbing him at these odds and not thinking twice about it.
Australian Open Women’s Draw Analysis
Click here to view the women’s draw
Quarter 1: It’s a really tough draw for Iga Swiatek, but she’s capable of navigating it if she plays at 80% of her best level. Considering she has been at 95-100% since start of October, I don’t think she’ll have as much trouble as expected. One thing to watch for here is that I have Jelena Ostapenko on Upset Watch. Ostapenko beat Swiatek at the US Open and has had her number in the past, so that’d be huge for the Pole. Ostapenko just has a few early matches that could give her issues.
Quarter 2: Karolina Pliskova can be dangerous on fast hard courts, but I don’t see much preventing Elena Rybakina from getting to the quarterfinals with her draw here. I am, however, worried about Jessica Pegula. I like the American’s all-around game, but I think Qinwen Zheng is due for a breakout and Australia suits her style perfectly. I like her to make a run to the quarterfinals, potentially knocking out Pegula in the process. And I actually love her chances of beating Rybakina, if they meet later on.
Quarter 3: The top portion of this quarter is wide open. Maria Sakkari is the top seed but hasn’t been a trustworthy player in quite some time. I think Beatriz Haddad Maia ends up being the one to face Coco Gaff for a spot in the semifinals. But I should mention that Caroline Garcia is somebody I’m watching as a long shot pick. Her game comes and goes, but her serve and power make her dangerous Down Under. I think she’ll take Naomi Osaka out early.
Quarter 4: Ons Jabeur is on Upset Watch for me. I think she’ll lose to whoever she faces in the second round, whether that’s Mirra Andreeva or Bernarda Pera. If it’s Andreeva, I like the teenager to dance all the way into the fourth round, where I’d like her chances against whoever emerges from that portion of the bracket. As for Aryna Sabalenka, it’s an easy draw until the fourth round. Liudmila Samsonova would be a challenge there, if that matchup happens. But Sabalenka should emerge from that. And if it’s not her that wins the quarter, I’d be surprised if it’s not Andreeva that breaks out and bursts onto the scene. She is improving at a rapid rate and has what it takes to compete for majors very soon.
Australian Open Women’s Futures
Zheng To Win Quarter 2 (+600 – 0.5 units): Rybakina is in the top tier of the women’s game, but I do think Zheng can beat her in Melbourne. Zheng just has tremendous power and an impressive all-around game from the baseline, giving her an edge over Rybakina in longer rallies. Rybakina can also struggle to return sometimes, so Zheng can potentially beat her by hitting her spots with the ball on her racquet. Overall, it just feels like Zheng is due for a pretty massive breakout at some point soon, and I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of it happening here.
Swiatek To Win Australian Open (+250 – 2 units): Swiatek’s draw isn’t easy, which is why her odds became more favorable once it came out. But she’s the best player in the world, by far. She also happens to be peaking right now, as she has been unbeatable in singles competition since October. Swiatek has never won the Australian Open before, but that only adds more fuel to her fire. Of course, players like Sabalenka, Gauff and Rybakina have what it takes to beat her, but it would take flawless performances from all of them. Even then, they’d need Swiatek’s level to dip rather low. I don’t see that happening considering the way she has played in recent months. It’s all clicking for the Pole right now.
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