The start of the new tennis season is here. The top players in the world are already in Australia, which means we’re gearing up for the 2025 Australian Open. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner claimed his first career major in Melbourne last year, and he rightfully enters this year’s tournament as the betting favorite. However, Sinner is dealing with all sorts of off-court drama, as the Italian is staring down the barrel of lengthy doping suspension. Sinner was able to block out some noise and win the 2024 US Open, but the buzz of a suspension wasn’t quite as loud then. Can he compartmentalize everything and claim back-to-back titles Down Under? Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev and several other players will have something to say about it. All I know is that this promises to be an exciting event, and I’m looking forward to another year of handicapping the ATP and WTA tours with VSiN. That said, keep reading for my early thoughts on the Australian Open, and make sure you come back to the website for my daily tennis best bets and tournament previews throughout the season.
I’ll dig into all of this a little deeper once the draw is out. Also, Gill Alexander will surely be firing away with tennis picks all year, so make sure you watch A Numbers Game and check out the VSiN picks page for his tennis bets.
Australian Open Odds
- Jannik Sinner +175
- Carlos Alcaraz +250
- Novak Djokovic +400
- Alexander Zverev +900
- Daniil Medvedev +900
- Jack Draper 30-1
- Frances Tiafoe 30-1
- Taylor Fritz 35-1
- Matteo Berrettini 35-1
- Alex de Minaur 40-1
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. Shop around for the best prices!
Australian Open Top Contenders
Jannik Sinner: Sinner has won the last two hard-court majors. The Italian is also coming off a season in which he went 70-6, won two Grand Slams, three Masters 1000s and the year-end championship. There’s simply nobody on the planet that can say they’re better than an in-form Sinner right now. And TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations’ Shot Quality metric showed that Sinner was head and shoulders above the rest of the competition throughout the entirety of last year. The only issue with Sinner is that it’s going to be hard to top a masterful 2024 season. Some hiccups should be expected for such a young player, and that’s especially true with him potentially facing a doping suspension. The original ruling in Sinner’s doping case said that he did nothing wrong, as his team was able to quickly prove his negligence. However, there has been an appeal and it’s very possible he’ll face the music after the Australian Open. As previously mentioned, Sinner was able to push all of that aside and win some tournaments last summer. However, this is a little more serious. Many believe he could be out for six months, and I’m not sure he has the mental strength to win another major as he awaits the verdict. However, if Sinner wasn’t dealing with any of this, he’d be my pick to win. He’s absurd on a fast, low-bouncing hard court.
Carlos Alcaraz: Alcaraz has spent the last couple of weeks speaking about how important this Australian Open is to him. The Spaniard has never won in Melbourne, and he’s eager to become the youngest player to complete the career Grand Slam. Rafael Nadal, Alcaraz’s idol, accomplished the feat at 24 years old. That said, Alcaraz has another three years to do it. But this is the right time for Alcaraz to strike. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Sinner heading into this event, and Djokovic has had his troubles with Alcaraz in their last few five-set matches. The only issue is that Alcaraz has struggled on lightning-quick hard courts. This has also been his worst major, by far. Alcaraz has never reached the semifinals of the Australian Open, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can change that here. For what it’s worth, Alcaraz has been extremely dialed in when it comes to his conditioning during the short offseason. It’s also hard not to love that Alcaraz didn’t view his 2024 season as a success. Anybody that isn’t satisfied with two majors should be feared. I just wish he got to train with Jack Draper, which was planned for some time. Working with a big, powerful player like that would have done some good for Alcaraz. But Draper had to cancel with a hip injury.
Novak Djokovic: The only pending play I have on the 2025 Australian Open is for Djokovic to win the tournament at +450 odds (risked one unit). Last year, the Serbian had his struggles at the majors, and he also had trouble staying healthy. All in all, the year ended with Djokovic going just 32-10 in tour-level matches. That was the lowest winning percentage the Serbian had posted since 2006, and it was also the fewest matches he had played in a season since 2005. However, when Djokovic really had his heart set on something, we saw the very best that the 24-time Grand Slam champion had to offer. That came in a straight-set win over Alcaraz in the Gold Medal match at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Alcaraz had been unbeatable on natural surfaces heading into the Olympics, and Djokovic had all sorts of question marks. But the 37-year-old came out clobbering shots from the baseline, and he looked every bit as good as Alcaraz there. I’m not sure we’re going to get that same level of focus and desire from Djokovic again, as he had never won gold before. But the Australian Open theoretically gives him his best shot at winning major No. 25. Djokovic should be healthy after having not played a real match in months. He should also be fired up to win a major in his short-term partnership with Andy Murray, who is coaching Djokovic in Australia. This is also Djokovic’s best major. He has won the Australian Open 10 times in his career. Well, I’m not sure how many more times I’ll actually be willing to back the Serbian to win. Sinner and Alcaraz are only getting better. But something tells me we’ll see some great stuff from Djokovic to start 2025.
Australian Open Players To Watch
I think this is going to be the year Zverev wins his first major, but I don’t see it happening in Australia. So, outside of the usual suspects, the players I’m keeping an eye on are Alex de Minaur and Nick Kyrgios.
If de Minaur is going to make a very deep major run anywhere, it’s probably going to be in front of his home fans. The 25-year-old was actually looking awesome in Melbourne last year, but he ran into a red-hot Andrey Rublev and got bounced in the fourth round. But the Australian is a relentless competitor whenever he’s on the court, and that only gets ratcheted up at home. Also, he can use the added adrenaline on both his serve and forehand. He has added a little pop to both shots lately, but he’s still weaker than most when it comes to pure arm talent.
Meanwhile, we all know Kyrgios has the talent to win a major. However, he hasn’t been healthy in years. Kyrgios has dealt with knee issues and had a surgery done to his right wrist. Will he still be able to blast serves and rip shots from the forehand side now? We saw what a wrist surgery did to Dominic Thiem. It sucked away his powers like he was an NBA player in Space Jam. Hopefully Kyrgios won’t suffer the same fate. But I should note that I’m not expecting a deep run from Kyrgios here. I just want to see how he looks as he looks to return to the top of the sport. And I know he’ll be fun to watch in front of his people. But if Kyrgios is healthy and playing well, he’ll be a threat to win Wimbledon. So, it’s worth doing some early scouting on him.
