The 2025 Australian Open final will feature a battle between Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys. Sabalenka has won this thing twice in a row, and she’s a big favorite to get the hat-trick. However, with expectations like that comes a lot of pressure. So, it’ll be interesting to see what happens, as Keys wasn’t supposed to be here. The American has always had Slam-winning potential, but injuries and cold spells have plagued her career. But she’s now playing at a very high level again, and she just knocked off Iga Swiatek. And coming into this match with no expectations should make her a more dangerous player. With that in mind, keep reading for our Keys vs. Sabalenka analysis, predictions and best bets.
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Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Accurate as of Thursday, January 23rd at 12:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -330, Keys +250
Spread: Sabalenka -4.5 Games (+100), Keys +4.5 Games (-130)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-120), Under 21.5 Games (-110)
How To Watch Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Where: Rod Laver Arena at Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia
When: Saturday, January 25th (Australian Eastern Daylight Time)
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions
Two years ago, Keys and Sabalenka met in the semifinals of the US Open. In that match, the American got off to the hottest start imaginable. She bageled the Belarusian in the opening set, and she also had a chance to serve for the match at 5-4 in the second. From there, Keys fell apart and allowed Sabalenka to ultimately win a second-set tiebreaker. Then, in the deciding third set, Keys was once again up a break late, as she was serving with a 4-2 lead. Unfortunately, the American got broken in that game, and she then went on to lose the 10-point ‘breaker in deciding fashion. All in all, it was an absolutely crushing loss for Keys, who hasn’t quite lived up to expectations since losing 6-3, 6-0 to Sloane Stephens in the 2017 US Open final. And she definitely felt like the 2023 semi-final was her shot at redemption, and she was in tears after the match thinking she might never get another. But Keys is back in a major final, and she’s here having already shown that she’s capable of giving Sabalenka trouble. And the American is a better player today than she was then. So, I’m not exactly sure why nobody is giving her a chance to win.
Keys is one of the few players on the WTA Tour that has the firepower to match Sabalenka. When the American isn’t destroying herself with mistakes, she’s hitting the cover off the ball and making it nearly impossible for her opponents to get balls back — or at least set their feet to do so. We just saw Keys completely overpower the best defensive player in tennis, as the American bullied Swiatek for the better part of three sets. Seriously, after Swiatek got out to a 5-2 lead in the opening set, Keys flipped a switch and was relentless for the remainder of the battle. Sure, she did mix in some bad unforced errors here and there, but she was very aggressive in hunting big shots. And in the end, she struck the right balance. If she plays anything like she did against Swiatek — which is how she has played all tournament long — then it’s hard to imagine Sabalenka running away with this.
The reality in a match like this is that the game plans for both players will be very similar. They’re both looking to serve big and play big, and the loser will be the player that makes more mistakes. But that’s where it’s hard to ignore that Sabalenka is under more pressure. She’s expected to win her third title, especially now that she’s not facing Swiatek. And pressure leads to mistakes. Keys also happens to be making more of her first serves in 2025, and I feel pretty confident in saying that her movement along the baseline has been a little better. Keys is doing a really good job of getting in and out of corners, and her ability to get a few extra balls back was huge against Swiatek. If she wasn’t able to grind at all, the Pole would have run her off the court.
With Keys entering this final in better form, nothing to lose and all the motivation in the world, it’s just hard not to like the American to win a set. And at the odds that are out there right now, it’s also worth putting a little something on the moneyline. Keys is not your standard world No. 14. She has been a world No. 7 before, and injuries have robbed her of time in the top five. But she’s healthy now and could change everything in 2025. After all, she already has been fine-tuning her game in recent months. While she got married to her coach Bjorn Fratangelo in the offseason, she also revamped her service motion and changed racquets to add a little power. This is not the Keys of last year, or the year before. It’s a better version. And it should be a mentally stronger version after having come out of a war with Swiatek last round.
Bet: Keys +1.5 Sets (-111 – 1.5 units) & Keys ML (+275 – 0.5 units)
