The final major of the 2025 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are in Flushing Meadows, New York for the US Open. Over the next two weeks, we’ll see some incredible action at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, where Jannik Sinner will be looking to repeat as champion — and claim his third Grand Slam title of the 2025 season. However, a number of different players, including Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Jack Draper, Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz, will be looking to take the Italian down. That said, things aren’t going to be easy for the 24-year-old. Either way, we can’t wait to see how things play out, and we’ll be covering all of the action at VSiN. Come back to the website for all of my daily tennis best bets for the US Open, but continue reading for my tournament preview below. I’ll get into the US Open court conditions and odds to win, and I’ll also dish out some of my favorite futures.
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Recent US Open Champions
- 2020: Dominic Thiem
- 2021: Daniil Medvedev
- 2022: Carlos Alcaraz
- 2023: Novak Djokovic
- 2024: Jannik Sinner
2025 US Open Odds To Win
- Jannik Sinner (+110)
- Carlos Alcaraz (+175)
- Novak Djokovic (14-1)
- Jack Draper (20-1)
- Ben Shelton (20-1)
- Alexander Zverev (22-1)
- Taylor Fritz (30-1)
- Daniil Medvedev (80-1)
- Alex de Minaur (80-1)
- Jakub Mensik (100-1)
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, accurate at time of publishing)
US Open Court Conditions
Tennis Abstract had a Surface Speed of 1.00 for the 2024 US Open, meaning this was a tour-average tournament when it came to aces. If that number was up at 1.20, that would have meant that there were 20% more aces than we see in tour-average tournaments. That’s something to keep in mind heading into the next two weeks, as this year’s tournament in Cincinnati had a 1.20 Surface Speed. Washington was also up there, as that tournament had a Surface Speed of 1.22. So, when trying to compare the conditions of the US Open to some of the recent tour-level events, you might want to look at Toronto. This year’s Canada Masters had a Surface Speed of 1.03.
Court Pace Index (CPI), another valuable resource when looking into conditions, had the US Open at 42.8 in 2024. That’s interesting because it wasn’t far off from where Cincinnati (43.0) was this year. However, it’s undeniable that the ball bounces a little higher in New York.
During the day, things should play a little quicker, favoring good servers and aggressive baseliners. However, players that hit with spin and try to grind out rallies will have their chances — especially when it’s humid.
At night, the bounces will get a little lower and the courts will get a bit slicker. That’s part of the reason Alcaraz got upset by Botic van de Zandschulp in 2024.
US Open Players To Watch
Jannik Sinner: As ridiculous as it might be to say the world No. 1 is a “player to watch,” Sinner did just retire in the first set of his final against Alcaraz in Cincinnati. The Italian was trailing 5-0 in that opening frame, called for the tournament doctors and then quickly decided to pull the plug. The question now is, has Sinner had enough time to get himself right? The reports out of Cincinnati suggested that the Italian was dealing with a fever, and flushing a small virus out of your system in a couple of days is definitely doable. However, if Sinner had the flu — or COVID — then things will be a bit trickier.
If Sinner is even close to 100%, this really should be his tournament. Over the last 52 weeks, Sinner is 37-2 on hard courts. Also, one of those losses was the retirement last week, and that’s a match I’m ignoring completely. Sinner is pretty clearly the best player in the world in these conditions, and I have a big gap between the Italian and Alcaraz on this surface. In fact, when looking at hard-court data over the last 52 weeks, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations have Sinner with a higher Shot Quality score than Alcaraz when it comes to serve (8.34 vs. 8.00), return (7.96 vs. 7.71), forehand (8.80 vs. 8.51) and backhand (8.33 vs. 7.95). If that’s not enough, Sinner has had a tactical edge over Alcaraz in each of their last two meetings, despite what the final score of the Roland Garros battle said. The serve out wide in the deuce court can be a swing shot for Sinner in this head-to-head matchup. Let’s also not ignore that Alcaraz has struggled at this venue since winning a title in 2022.
Novak Djokovic: You’ll see below that I’m targeting Quarter 3 on the futures market, and that has to do with some real uncertainty surrounding Djokovic heading into the tournament. If you go back and look at some of my work from earlier in the season, you’d see that I was pretty high on Djokovic at several key events. I even cashed some nice futures on him in the previous two majors. However, we haven’t seen the 24-time Grand Slam champion since Wimbledon, where the 38-year-old’s body failed him in the later stages of the tournament. Of course, Djokovic knows his body better than anyone, so it’s entirely possible he’ll be feeling refreshed after taking significant time off prior to arriving in New York. However, this is a physically demanding tournament. Not only will Djokovic have to deal with the weather — which has bothered him in the past — but there will also be matches in which he’ll need to exert a lot of energy to hit through opponents. I’m not sure he’ll be able to do that, and I think his draw is a little trickier than people think. I also wish he played a tune-up event, like he did in Geneva before heading to Paris.
Daniil Medvedev: I’m not sure Medvedev will ever compete for another Grand Slam title, and recent losses to Benjamin Bonzi (his first-round opponent here), Corentin Moutet and Adam Walton definitely paint an ugly picture about the Russian’s recent form. However, Medvedev is a former US Open champion and has always been one of the toughest outs in the sport on hard courts. And while some of his recent results have been miserable, his serve has been much better in 2025 than it was in 2024. If Medvedev can continue to head in the right direction as a server, he just might be able to play spoiler here. Why do I bring that up? Well, Medvedev could be Alcaraz’s fourth-round opponent, and the Russian has beaten the Spaniard in New York before. i’d like to see them face off again.
2025 US Open Futures
Alexander Zverev To Reach Quarterfinals (-140 – 1.5 units) & Alex de Minaur To Reach Quarterfinals (+190 – 1.5 units): Before recording the US Open MegaPod with Gill Alexander and Drew Dinsick, I was leaning towards taking de Minaur to win Quarter 2. However, after hearing them out and thinking about it more, I decided to play both to make the quarterfinals. That way, if the two of them meet in the quarterfinals, I won’t even have to think about the winner.
Like Sinner, Zverev was battling an illness in Cincinnati, so there’s no guarantee the German will be healthy in Flushing. However, if he’s even close, he really should be able to win four matches. Zverev’s draw isn’t exactly easy, but I trust him to earn wins over players like Gael Monfils, Felix Auger Aliassime, Ugo Humbert and Andrey Rublev. Those are some of the best players he’d face on his way to the quarters. Obviously, this hasn’t been a great season for the Australian Open runner-up, but only two players have a higher Serve Quality than Zverev’s 8.86 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. When you combine that with his world-class backhand, plus ability to grind out wins in five-setters, you’re talking about a player that can pose a lot of problems for some of the sport’s shakier talents. And there’s a lot of shaky talents in his way here.
The thinking with de Minaur is similar. The Australian is a nightmare to play against, as he’s an elite returner and an absolute wall along the baseline. He has also done a lot to improve his serve and forehand, and we saw him do some impressive things on his way to winning a title in Washington a few weeks ago. De Minaur also happens to have an easy draw. So, at +190, this feels like a no-brainer to me.
Holger Rune To Win Quarter 3 (+650 – 0.5 units) & Taylor Fritz To Win Quarter 3 (+333 – 1.5 units): With Djokovic having not played in a couple of weeks, I think we’ll end up seeing a clash between Rune and Fritz in the quarterfinals.
I can’t say I feel great about the way Rune has played this year, but he’ll likely take on van de Zandschulp in Round 1, Mackenzie McDonald or a qualifier in Round 2 and Frances Tiafoe in Round 3. Tiafoe is the only tough opponent there, but Rune was up 6-4, 3-1 on the American in Cincinnati. He was in control of that match before Tiafoe retired. That said, I feel really good about Rune at least setting up a meeting with Djokovic, and i think the Dane will have a shot against an out-of-form version of the four-time US Open champion.
Fritz’s draw is actually a lot tougher, as he’ll have to go through some big hitters in order to get to the quarterfinals. However, I’m putting some faith in the American. Over the last 52 weeks, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations have Fritz in the Top 10 in Shot Quality for serve, return, forehand and backhand on this surface. In that same time frame, Fritz’s 37 wins on hard courts have him tied with Alcaraz and Sinner for victories on the surface. Sure, it took Fritz a lot more matches to get to those 37 wins, but he’s pretty clearly the fourth-best player in the world right now. So, +333 feels like a must-grab number when looking at quarter prices. I’d actually love his chances against Djokovic in the quarterfinals.
Taylor Fritz To Win US Open (30-1 – 0.25 units): Do I think Fritz will actually win this tournament? Of course not. However, I don’t think he should be 30-1 either. While the American’s draw is far from easy, he is in the bottom half of the bracket. That means he avoided Sinner at a hard-court event, and that’s absolutely massive.
If Fritz does face Alcaraz in the semifinals, that’s a match he can legitimately win. We just saw Fritz go toe to toe with Alcaraz at Wimbledon, where he choked away a fourth-set tiebreaker that would have set up a deciding fifth set. That result is intriguing when looking at this tournament. Fritz’s best surface is probably grass, but the American loses less on hard courts that Alcaraz does. Considering he’d also have the crowd, I don’t think it’s crazy to have Fritz back in the final. And if he does get there, we should be able to monetize a 30-1 ticket against Sinner. We could also be holding gold if Sinner’s illness leads to an early-ish exit.
