MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, August 13.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero has pitched to a lot of contact with 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He has a 3.38 ERA with one home run and 2.1 walks per nine innings allowed. Montero faces a Guardians lineup that is 29th in road scoring with just under 3.9 runs per game. The Tigers are fourth in bullpen ERA since June 1 at 3.17. Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick owns a 2.57 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings. His ERA drops to 2.24 away from home.
Pick: Guardians vs. Tigers Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
2:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin has pitched better than his 4.17 ERA would show. He has a 3.48 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings allowed. Martin has a 2.84 ERA at home with only 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 5.32 road ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed. Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has a 3.92 ERA but a higher 4.68 fielding independent, with 6.9 strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings. The Reds are 25th in scoring with 4.2 runs per game, while the White Sox are eighth with nearly 4.8 runs per game.
Picks: White Sox Moneyline -130 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -136 and Total 8.6
3:07 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer has allowed only three runs across 11 1/3 innings in his past two starts, but overall this season, he has a 7.25 ERA with 2.8 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings. The Red Sox are 12th in road scoring with nearly 4.6 runs per game. Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle has a 3.20 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
4:05 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
These are the top two offenses in baseball. The Nationals average nearly 5.4 runs per game and the Cubs 5.2 runs per game. Cubs starting pitcher Kevin Gausman enters in somewhat shaky form, posting a 4.29 ERA, but that goes up to a 5.89 in his past nine starts, with his teams going 2-7 in those starts. Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli has been solid with a 3.57 ERA and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but is supported by a bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 4.84.
Pick: Cubs vs. Nationals Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
7:30 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins
This game will be the “Field of Dreams” game played in Iowa, the third one in history, with the first being a 9-8 win for the White Sox over the New York Yankees in 2021 and the other being a 4-2 win for the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds in 2022. Aaron Nola gets the
start for the Phillies and enters with a 5.47 ERA with 2.1 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings. Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley has a 3.76 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts and 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Twins lead the American League in road scoring with 4.8 runs per game.
Picks: Twins Moneyline -110 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -138 and Total 9.6
10:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angele Dodgers
While Brewers starting pitcher Shane Drohan has a 3.87 ERA with a 3.34 fielding independent, he is in rough form, having allowed at least three runs in five of his past six starts. Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki has 4.54 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. Sasaki enters in his best form of the season with a 2.40 ERA in his past five starts. He is backed up by a lineup that is fourth in the league in scoring with over five runs per game.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -143
