On Sunday, August 30, the 2026 US Open kicks off from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York. As the fourth and final Grand Slam of the season, this is the biggest two weeks on the tennis calendar, and New York always delivers. On the men’s side of the draw, Carlos Alcaraz is back to defend his title after more than four months away with a right wrist injury, and his opening match against Roman Safiullin will be our first real look at his game. One guy who won’t be joining Alcaraz in the field is world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, as a right knee issue has kept him out since he won Wimbledon. That injury cracks this thing wide open for the rest of the field, with studs like Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and Americans Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton looking to take advantage of a draw that’s missing the world’s best player. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka is chasing a third consecutive US Open title, something no woman has pulled off since Serena Williams, but Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, and Mirra Andreeva are all in the field. And while injuries have decimated the top of the ATP (Sinner, Jack Draper, Joao Fonseca all out), most of the WTA’s biggest stars are healthy and in New York, which should make for some fantastic drama over the next couple of weeks. With that in mind, let’s break it all down before you lock in your futures.
US Open playing conditions
The courts at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center have a reputation as some of the fastest in tennis, but the numbers tell a different story. Tennis Abstract’s Surface Speed ratings had last year’s US Open at 1.00 — right at tour average, and a far cry from Cincinnati’s 1.12 — and plenty of players complained about how slow the courts played in 2025. So, while you want to favor big servers, players that take the ball early, and players who dictate with pace, just don’t go in expecting an ace-fest. This plays closer to a neutral hard court than a true fast one.
Conditions are also a factor in New York. Late-summer humidity is the big one, as it causes the balls to fluff up and play heavy, and that’s most noticeable during night sessions once the air gets thick. Day sessions in the heat tend to play quicker, and there’s a new wrinkle this year with the ATP’s heat rule: a 10-minute cooling break when the wet-bulb globe temperature hits 86 degrees, and a full suspension of play at 90 degrees. That said, the session-to-session swings are what you really want to be mindful of when handicapping day and night matches at Flushing Meadows.
US Open women’s futures
Jessica Pegula To Win Quarter 2 (+200 – 1.5 units) & US Open (12-1 – 0.5 units) – Of all of the top players in the draw, Pegula has my favorite path to the semifinals. The American has been playing at an extremely high level since the start of the North American hard-court swing, and she should be a sizable favorite in every match she plays until a potential quarterfinal showdown with either Elina Svitolina or Karolina Muchova. I’d like Pegula’s chances in either of those matches, as Muchova hasn’t played any singles since Wimbledon. I also prefer Pegula’s style of play in a match against Svitolina, who she is 6-3 against in her career.
As far as winning the tournament goes, I just don’t want to miss out if she ultimately does claim her maiden Grand Slam title here. I have been backing Pegula regularly, and I feel her game is ready for this moment. Of course, a three-match stretch that potentially includes Muchova, Sabalenka, and either Swiatek or Gauff would be rough. But Pegula is a warrior. She has to be feeling like this is her best shot at winning a Slam in quite some time.
Coco Gauff To Win US Open (+550 – 2 units) – I grabbed Swiatek to win the US Open during her match against Elena Rybakina in Canada, as she was putting the finishing touches on a masterful 10 days of tennis. However, Gauff ended up stealing the “hottest player in tennis” title after a dominant run in Cincinnati, where she earned some impressive wins — including straight-set victories over Marta Kostyuk and Pegula. Gauff hasn’t had a match with a double-fault percentage of 10% or higher in nine matches. She’s looking way better as a server, and she’s also looking more confident from the forehand wing. With that in mind, the weaknesses Gauff’s opponents hope to expose simply aren’t there right now. She’s simply playing an elite brand of baseline tennis, she’s a relentless returner, and she now gets to play in front of a crowd that adores her. She’s the player to beat in Flushing.
US Open men’s futures
Frances Tiafoe (+700) & Brandon Nakashima To Win Quarter 3 (+750) – I think I have been higher on Djokovic than anyone over the last two years, as I have had him to reach the semifinals — and even win — in several majors. However, I can’t quite get there with the Serbian right now. His body couldn’t hold up in the heat in a best-of-three match against Thiago Agustin Tirante in Cincinnati, and that’s not a good sign heading into a best-of-five event that does feature some heat and humidity. On top of that, Djokovic didn’t play well in the US Open’s mixed doubles tournament, and he reportedly struggled quite a bit in some of the practice sets he played throughout the week.
Considering the poor form of Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev, this is a quarter that seems wide open. So, I’m taking my chances with two Americans. Tiafoe is fresh off a run to the finals in Cincinnati, where he played extremely well despite having recently had a procedure done on his right hand a week before. Tiafoe now heads to a venue he has really enjoyed in the past, and he has a very manageable draw. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up making the quarterfinals, and I’d love a +700 ticket at that point.
Nakashima is in a similar position. The American comes into this tournament in insane form, having made it to at least the semifinals in Washington DC, Montreal, and Cincinnati. Nakashima is now up to seventh in the world in 2026 Elo Rating (2003.9), and there’s a good argument to be made that he’s a top-three server in the world. Given that, it feels foolish to pass on him at this number, even if earning a win over Djokovic on this big of a stage would be tough for him.
Arthur Fils To Win Quarter 4 (+500) & US Open (12-1 – 0.25 units) – I’m not sure Fils’ body can hold up in a best-of-five major in which his draw is extremely difficult, as he has had his issues with his back and hip in recent years. However, I have to have a piece of the Frenchman in New York. Fils just put on a high-level display in Cincinnati, where he won his first 1000-level event and took down Jiri Lehecka, Alex de Minaur, Flavio Cobolli, and Tiafoe in the process. Fils is now up to No. 3 in the world in 2026 Elo Rating (2107.1), playing at nearly the same level as Alcaraz (2132.7) for the year. He is serving extremely well, his forehand is huge, and he has the overall blend of skill and athleticism that you need to win this type of tournament. Of course, Fils is in the most loaded portion of the draw, as he could have to go through both Shelton and Alcaraz in order to reach the semifinals. But he has his game in the right place. I think he can take down Shelton, and I give him a decent chance against an out-of-from Alcaraz.
If Fils does win the quarter, it’s likely he’ll be gassed by the semifinals. However, at that point, I’ll want to be holding at least something on the Frenchman to win it all, as he’d be the most talented player remaining.
Previously added
Iga Swiatek To Win US Open (+800 – 1.5 units) – Posted August 13 on Twitter
Ben Shelton To Win US Open (19-1 – 0.5 units) – Written up for the website August 19
Taylor Fritz To Win US Open (19-1 – 0.5 units) – Written up for the website August 19
Rafael Jodar To Win US Open (20-1 – 0.5 units) – Written up for the website August 19
Felix Auger-Aliassime To Win US Open (49-1 – 0.5 units) – Written up for the website August 19
