MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, August 30.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:15 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Andrew Alvarez has pitched better than his 3.71 ERA would indicate, as he has a 3.42 fielding independent with 0.5 home runs and 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk has pitched to a lot of contact with a 4.21 ERA and 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings and has to face a Nationals lineup that is second in scoring with 5.2 runs per game. The Marlins bullpen has an ERA of 5.08 since July 1, which ranks 27th in the league.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -122
1:35 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Since being traded from the San Francisco Giants to the Atlanta Braves, starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has a 1.52 ERA with two home runs allowed in 23 2/3 innings across four starts. Rockies starting pitcher Mason Adams is making his second career start after allowing one run in four innings in his debut, but is supported by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 4.81, while the Braves are fourth in bullpen ERA at 3.42.
Pick: Braves Run Line -1.5 +100
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -1.5 -121
1:37 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
While Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer has pitched better of late with two runs or fewer allowed in five of his past six games, the season numbers are still rough with a 7.02 ERA and 6.32 fielding independent with 2.2 home runs and 4.5 walks per nine innings allowed. Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has been solid this season with a 3.36 ERA, 9.4 strikeouts, and 2.3 walks per nine innings, but the Mariners bullpen ranks 29th in ERA since the beginning of July at 5.61.
Pick: Mariners vs. Blue Jays Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
2:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Dustin May owns a 4.56 ERA this season, but his 3.36 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed points toward positivity. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks 27th in scoring with less than 4.1 runs per game, while the Brewers are fourth in scoring with just under five runs per game but are last in home runs hit on a per-at-bat basis. Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker has a 4.41 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA since July 1 at 5.41, while the Brewers lead the National League in bullpen ERA in that span at 2.62.
Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +125 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 +106 and Total 7.6
3:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Astros starting pitcher Ethan Pecko is making his third career start after posting a 7.88 ERA with seven runs and two home runs allowed across eight innings in his first two starts. Mets starting pitcher Zac Thornton is doing a good job of inducing soft contact with a 2.88 ERA despite getting only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings, as he’s allowing only one home run and 2.2 walks per nine innings. The Mets also got team leader in home runs Juan Soto back in the lineup on Saturday.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -141
7:20 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has allowed a lot of hard contact this season, posting a 3.78 ERA with a 4.61 fielding independent and 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. In his past 17 starts, he owns a 4.65 ERA with 2.5 home runs per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has a 2.77 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings, and both offenses will benefit from the wind blowing out.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +125 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -102 and Total 9.9
