On Thursday, July 10th, Amanda Anisimova and Aryna Sabalenka will play for a spot in the 2025 Wimbledon finals. We already know that there will be a first-time champion at the All England Club this year. Will it be one of these two? Sabalenka has already won three Grand Slam titles, but she’s dying to win one in London. But this is undoubtedly a tough matchup for her. That said, let’s get into some analysis with an Anisimova vs. Sabalenka betting preview.
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Amanda Anisimova vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, July 8th at 8:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -275, Anisimova +220
Spread: Sabalenka -3.5 Games (-135), Anisimova +3.5 Games (+100)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-125), Under 21.5 Games (-110)
How To Watch Amanda Anisimova vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Where: All England Club in London, England
When: Thursday, July 10th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Amanda Anisimova vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions
Tennis Abstract hasn’t updated its 2025 Elo ratings since June 30th, but Sabalenka’s number was 2185.3 on that date. Well, Sabalenka’s grass-court Elo rating is just 1956.1, which shows that there’s a pretty wide gap between where she is overall and where she is on this surface. Of course, it’s entirely possible that Sabalenka’s number would be a lot higher if updated today, as she has won five matches in London already. The Belarusian also has the highest grass-court Elo rating on the WTA Tour regardless. But the point is: Sabalenka isn’t as good — or proven — on grass as she is elsewhere. She’s beatable on this surface, which is why she was pushed by Emma Raducanu, Elise Mertens and Laura Siegemund. Now, it’s Anisimova’s turn to do the pushing, and she’s a very dangerous opponent for the world No. 1.
Sabalenka beat Anisimova 7-5, 6-3 in a competitive match at Roland Garros a few months ago, but the American is 5-3 in eight career meetings with the Belarusian. Sure, some of those wins came earlier in their careers, meaning it might not make a lot of sense to weigh them heavily. However, Anisimova did earn a 6-4, 6-2 win over Sabalenka in Toronto in 2024. She has what it takes to beat Sabalenka, and she has what it takes to beat this version of her.
Anisimova is one of the few players on tour with the ability to go blow for blow with the world No. 1 from the back of the court. They’re both going to be slugging out there, so it’ll be a bad day to be a tennis ball on Centre Court. And ultimately, Anisimova will have a shot at winning as long as she has a solid day as a server and avoids racking up unforced errors.
At this point, we know there will be stretches in which Sabalenka will bleed mistakes. We see it pretty much every match. She just hasn’t faced anybody with the ability to make her pay for them. Anisimova can do that as long as she’s not going through it herself. We have seen some flawless sets of tennis from Anisimova over the last two weeks, but she tends to lose focus when she feels the finish line approaching or feels like she’s breezing through a match. You probably won’t get that from her in this one. She knows how talented her opponent is, so she should be full-go until the very end.
Anisimova’s forehand could end up being what decides this match. The backhand is going to be awesome, as it’s one of the biggest weapons in tennis — and that also goes for the ATP Tour. She should have a ton of success in backhand-to-backhand exchanges, and she should be able to push Sabalenka around with her ability to crush that shot. Anisimova just needs to be able to find winners from the forehand wing when she sees her targets open up.
The mental game will also be massive here. Not only does Anisimova lose focus occasionally, but she can get down on herself when things aren’t going well. She’s going to need to try and avoid that in this match, as Sabalenka is a threat to do the same. We have seen Coco Gauff have a ton of success against Sabalenka in the past, and part of that is the American understands that if she puts a ton of balls in play then the Belarusian might self-destruct. Well, Anisimova isn’t capable of playing the same type of defense as Gauff, but she can frustrate Sabalenka with her ball striking. She’s also very good at redirecting pace, which could also get to the world No. 1.
Overall, Anisimova to win a set is a big play for me, as I think she has the game and confidence required to make Sabalenka earn this thing. I’m also sprinkling the moneyline at the outrageous price of +240. I’m not certain Anisimova will have the mental strength to actually win this match, on this stage, as she has never done it before. But I do think she’ll put herself in a position to do so.
Bet: Anisimova +1.5 Sets (-125 – 2 units) & Anisimova ML (+240 – 0.5 units)
