Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, September 11, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: TEX is 2-10 (-8.16 units) in road night games with starter Kumar Rocker in his career
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+109 at AZ)
Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 477-425 record for +45.31 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+114 at TOR), NY METS (+114 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+129 at WSH), LA DODGERS (-209 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (-149 at SF)
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 40-20 (66.7%, +20.02 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 33.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-118 at MIN)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: PITTSBURGH +167 at CHC (projections have PIT priced at +111)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 61-55 for -12.14 units for an ROI of -10.5%.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-156 vs LAA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 90-131 for -44.54 units and an ROI of -20.2%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+114 at TOR)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 145-220 start for -30.70 units (-8.4% ROI) after losing about 41 units over the 2-1/2 months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+154 at DET), KANSAS CITY (+168 at TOR), ST LOUIS (-106 vs CWS), ATHLETICS (+138 vs SEA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 101-55 for -21.29 units, ROI -13.6%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-206 vs KC), LA DODGERS (-209 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (-206 vs CIN)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 39-25 start for -17.56 units, and an ROI of -27.4%!
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-206 vs CIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 298-358 for -22.70 units, and comes off a rough three-and-a-half-week stretch, giving back over 11 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+167 at CHC), LA ANGELS (+129 at WSH), HOUSTON (+144 at TB), ATHLETICS (+138 vs SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 246-175 for +38.63 units, an ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-118 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-114 at STL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that are looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 176-205 start for -41.77 units (ROI -11%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 78-99 for -20.19 units and a solid ROI of -11.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – SEATTLE (-168 at ATH)
3+ games – NY METS (+114 at NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (+123 vs SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 153-178 for -2.04 units. However, it has lost -15.3 units over the last two months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs PIT), COLORADO (+154 at DET), WASHINGTON (-156 vs LAA), MIAMI (+171 vs LAD), CINCINNATI (+169 at MIL), ST LOUIS (-106 vs CWS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 532-425 for +43.85 units and an ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY METS, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 264-197 for +24.55 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-118 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-114 at STL)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -104 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 163-203 for -37.91 units and an ROI of -10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR SAN FRANCISCO vs SD (+123 CURRENTLY)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 462-395 but for -93.71 units and an ROI of -10.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-156 vs LAA), TORONTO (-137 vs BAL), TAMPA BAY (-174 vs HOU), ARIZONA (-132 vs TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 477-425 record for +45.31 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+114 at TOR), NY METS (+114 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+129 at WSH), LA DODGERS (-209 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (-149 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,230-2,113 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -276.80 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, MIAMI, BALTIMORE, SAN DIEGO
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,301-2,886 (44.4%) for -272.42 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 364-322 (53.1%) for +24.35 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-156 vs LAA)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 116-168 SU (-25.35 units, ROI: -8.9%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+114 at NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 110-195 (-62.97 units, ROI: -20.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-156 vs LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 114-46 (+33.64 units, ROI: 21%) in their last 160 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-209 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (-149 at SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 278-180 in their last 458 tries (+45.55 units, ROI: 9.9%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-209 at MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 37-77 (-12.16 units, ROI: -10.7%) in their last 114 tries.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+167 at CHC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 620-611 for +19.02 units, good for +1.5% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PITTSBURGH +167 (+56 diff), MIAMI +171 (+22), ARIZONA -131 (+18), HOUSTON +144 (+12), PHILADELPHIA +154 (+10), CINCINNATI +169 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX -114 (+30 diff), CLEVELAND -118 (+29), SAN DIEGO -149 (+16), TORONTO -137 (+14), ATHLETICS +138 (+13)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PITTSBURGH (74-73) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (81-66)
Trend: PIT is 15-31 (-22.53 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend: CHC is 43-20 (+13.86 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the
2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs PIT)
(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (89-57) at (954) MIAMI (72-75)
Trend: LAD is 57-82 (-30.80 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at MIA)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (82-65) at (956) ATLANTA (86-61)
Trend: PHI is 16-33 (-14.93 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: Chris Sale’s teams are 29-10 (+11.68 units) in his last 39 home night starts
Trends Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-187 vs PHI)
(957) CINCINNATI (69-77) at (958) MILWAUKEE (91-56)
Trend: CIN is 10-7 (+4.88 units) on the road in Divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott over the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+169 at MIL)
Trend: Under the total is 30-13-3 (+15.70 units) when MIL faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-MIL (o/u at 8)
(959) SAN DIEGO (78-68) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (62-85)
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 31-13 (+19.87 units) when he starts against NL opponents since the beginning of the 2024
season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-149 at SF)
Trend: Under the total is 25-12 (+11.95 units) when starter Robbie Ray is favored since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-SF (o/u at 8)
(961) BALTIMORE (71-76) at (962) TORONTO (73-74)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 18-23 (-6.54 units) in his last 41 starts vs AL East opponents
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+114 at TOR)
(963) HOUSTON (75-72) at (964) TAMPA BAY (87-59)
Trend: Under the total is 23-15-2 (+6.45 units) when TB is a home favorite of -115 or higher with starter Drew Rasmussen since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-TB (o/u at 7.5)
(965) KANSAS CITY (65-82) at (966) BOSTON (80-67)
Trend: Seth Lugo’s teams are 11-18 (-7.51 units) when he starts on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+168 at BOS)
(967) CLEVELAND (74-73) at (968) MINNESOTA (69-77)
Trend: Under the total is 16-5-1 (+10.45 units) in night games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-MIN (o/u at 7.5)
(969) SEATTLE (69-78) at (970) ATHLETICS (59-88)
Trend: SEA is 25-13 (+5.40 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-168 at ATH)
(971) COLORADO (55-91) at (972) DETROIT (67-79)
Trend: Under the total is 41-27-3 (+11.30 units) in DET home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-DET (o/u at 8)
(973) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-90) at (974) WASHINGTON (67-81)
Trend: Over the total is 11-4-1 (+6.70 units) with starter Cade Cavalli at home since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-WSH (o/u at 7.5)
(975) NEW YORK-NL (68-78) at (976) NEW YORK-AL (84-62)
Trend: Under the total is 67-49-5 (+13.10 units) when NYY is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-NYY (o/u at 8)
(977) CHICAGO-AL (75-71) at (978) ST LOUIS (72-75)
Trend: Over the total is 55-31-1 (+20.90 units) in CWS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-STL (o/u at 8)
(979) TEXAS (72-75) at (980) ARIZONA (78-69)
Trend: TEX is 30-45 (-22.83 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 at SEA)
Trend: TEX is 2-10 (-8.16 units) in road night games with starter Kumar Rocker in his career
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+109 at AZ)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Fri 9/11-Sun 9/13
Trend: PITTSBURGH is 13-25 (34.2%, -8.40 units) in their last 38 games at Wrigley Field
– The ROI on this trend is -22.1%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+167 at CHC)
Series #32: Cleveland at Minnesota, Fri 9/11-Sun 9/13
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 40-20 (66.7%, +20.02 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 33.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-118 at MIN)
Series #33: Cincinnati at Milwaukee, Fri 9/11-Sun 9/13
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 39-16 (70.9%, +18.75 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play
– The ROI on this trend is 34.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-206 vs CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-206 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): NY METS (+114 at NYY), BALTIMORE (+114 at TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (+123 vs SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-209 at MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-187 vs COL), WASHINGTON (-156 vs LAA), NY METS (+114 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-114 at STL), ARIZONA (-132 vs TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-AZ (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
MIAMI
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 13-23 (36.1%) -8.28 units, ROI: -23%
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+171 vs LAD)
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