The 2024 ATP Tour comes to an end with the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, Italy. Eight of the best players in the world will battle one last time, as Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev are all in Italy for this competition. Unfortunately, Novak Djokovic is a little banged up and made the decision to focus on getting ready for the 2025 Australian Open. But this is still an exciting tournament, as we have top-end talent competing for insane prize money. Also, every player in the field wants to end the season on a positive note.
This tournament features two groups of four playing in a round robin format. The top two players from each group will advance to the semifinals, which will be your standard one-loss elimination. With that out of the way, keep reading for a best bet for Monday, November 11th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 840-825 (+37.58 units)
Casper Ruud vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Nobody entered the ATP Finals in worse form than Ruud. The Norwegian has lost four matches in a row and nine of his last 11. Alcaraz has also dominated this head-to-head series in the past, as he is 4-0 against Ruud in tour-level matches. However, it is worth noting that Alcaraz isn’t exactly comfortable on indoor hard courts. The Spaniard actually complained about the speed of the courts at the Rolex Paris Masters a couple of weeks ago, and the conditions in Turin are a bit faster. That leads me to believe that Ruud can at least make this a respectable loss.
I know a lot of people jumped down Ruud’s throat after his loss to Benjamin Bonzi in Metz. That’s a player that Ruud should be able to beat, and surface and form really shouldn’t matter. However, Bonzi is a ridiculous 21-1 since the start of October, and he went on to win that tournament in Metz. So, while I made a joke on X about Ruud having been lucky to even win eight games off Bonzi, the loss did age rather well. Bonzi was a red-hot player that was still eager to win some matches to end the 2024 season, and he was also playing in front of a home crowd.
Realistically, that doesn’t make anything any better. Ruud has still been losing to just about everybody. But the last time Ruud and Alcaraz played in very quick conditions was in Miami in 2022. That Masters 1000 event has a Surface Speed of 1.11, according to Tennis Abstract. That more or less takes into account the ace rate of players compared to a tour-average surface. In Miami, players hits 11% more aces than they do on a court with average speed. Well, the reason that’s significant to me is that Alcaraz only earned a 7-5, 6-4 win over Ruud in Miami. So, in conditions that are much friendlier for the server, I don’t think it’s crazy to believe that Ruud can rack up enough holds to help Over bettors cash on a 19.5-game total. This tournament has the fastest Surface Speed of all of them. If Ruud can lose a set 7-5 or 7-6, there would be very little work to be done to help the Over cash in the other set. And even with his baseline game in the toilet right now, Ruud should be able to hit his spots with his serve in one of these two sets.
I also don’t think it’s insane to expect Alcaraz to play a very poor set or two here. As previously mentioned, the Spaniard really doesn’t like playing on indoor hard courts, where his overall variety and elite court coverage becomes less of an asset. Serving at a very high level is also extremely important, and Alcaraz’s serve comes and goes. Sure, he has won two majors this year and a lot of that has to do with him switching to a platform serve. But he is not yet consistent in that part of the game, so he could gift Ruud a break or two in this match.
Overall, I expect Alcaraz to win this match. He’s a -1000 favorite for a reason. And I also think the Spaniard will be able to find some form in group play and eventually give himself a chance to win this event. But it could take the 21-year-old some time to find his game, and it’ll be hard for Alcaraz to pummel a top-10 player in the world if he’s playing his way into form throughout this match.
I should also point out that Ruud’s heavy topspin forehand might be a weakness on a surface like this, as it sits up and allows opponents to really rip into their groundstrokes. But if Alcaraz is playing sloppy tennis throughout this match, Ruud might be able to use his topspin and ability to change up the height of the ball to extract some errors out of Alcaraz’s racquet.
Bet: Over 19.5 Games (-140 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
