The 2024 ATP Tour comes to an end with the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, Italy. Eight of the best players in the world will battle one last time, as Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev are all in Italy for this competition. Unfortunately, Novak Djokovic is a little banged up and made the decision to focus on getting ready for the 2025 Australian Open. But this is still going to be an exciting tournament, as we have top-end talent competing for insane prize money. Also, every player in the field wants to end the season on a positive note.
This tournament features two groups of four playing in a round robin format. The top two players from each group will advance to the semifinals, which will be your standard one-loss elimination. With that out of the way, keep reading for a best bet for Sunday, November 10th, as well as my favorite bet to win the entire tournament.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 839-825 (+35.63 units)
Taylor Fritz vs. Daniil Medvedev
These two have an odd head-to-head history. Medvedev is 1-0 in the tour-level matches they have played, as he beat Fritz in Cincinnati back in 2022. However, Fritz has won three exhibition matches against the Russian. One was in UTS in 2021, another was in the Diriyah Tennis Cup in Saudi Arabia in 2022 and the most recent was in the World Tennis League in 2023. If you want to treat those like they didn’t happen, I completely get it. Medvedev can struggle to get up for big matches, so he probably doesn’t put much into every exhibition he plays. But this is a tough matchup for the Russian, especially with the way these two have played recently.
Over the last 52 weeks, Fritz has been a much better server than Medvedev. The American’s hold percentage is up at 88.4% in that span. Only six players in the world have a higher mark than that. Meanwhile, Medvedev’s hold percentage over the last 52 weeks is just 80.3%. His serve is getting worse and worse, which is why it has gotten harder for him to win matches against elite competition. Of course, Medvedev partially makes up for it by being one of the best returners in the world. His break percentage of 27.6% over the last 52 weeks is wildly impressive. However, I’m not sure it’s going to matter all that much here. The conditions in Turin are extremely fast, making it possible to ride a big serve to some massive wins. In fact, according to Tennis Abstract, players serve up aces at a higher rate in Turin than they do in any other tournament.
It just shouldn’t be surprising to anybody if Fritz runs into very little trouble in his service games. But Medvedev will surely lose focus a couple of times and give Fritz chances to break. And with the American’s ability to hit big, flat groundstrokes from both wings, he should be able to capitalize on a few of those opportunities.
Medvedev has also lost three consecutive matches coming into this tournament, and he just hasn’t been able to find any rhythm in recent weeks. Well, he’s going to need to find a way to lock in and play great defense in order to win this match, and that’s going to be difficult with how low his rally tolerance is right now.
Fritz also seems genuinely excited to be a part of the ATP Finals again, so he’s going to come out fired up and ready to go. Fritz made a lot of noise at this event in 2022, and he’s a better player now than he was then. Meanwhile, Medvedev is probably just looking for this season to end. I wouldn’t be surprised if he looks like he did at the 6 Kings Slam in Riyadh, where he lost in embarrassing fashion to Sinner, collected his paycheck and left with a smile on his face.
Bet: Fritz ML (+130 – 1.5 units)
NOTE: I put this on the Pro Picks page a couple of days ago. The +130 is no longer available, but I’d still suggest playing it at +115 or better.
ATP Finals Futures
Jannik Sinner To Win (+145 – 2 units) – It’s not exactly fun backing a player to win a tournament at +145 odds, and that’s especially true in a tournament that features nothing but high-level players. However, Sinner is the best player in the world on hard courts, and I’m really not sure it’s even close. And he’s only better on indoor hard courts, where the court speeds are faster and his all-court power is even more dangerous. On this surface, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations gives Sinner the highest Performance Rating (8.92), Forehand Quality (8.85) and Backhand Quality (8.45) of anybody in the field. Djokovic, who isn’t playing, actually has the second-most impressive metrics. Sinner also has the highest Conversion (73.7) of anybody in Turin, and his Return Quality is higher than anybody else’s. When you add in the fact that Sinner will have a legitimate home-court advantage as an Italian playing in front of a crazy Italian crowd, it’s just very hard to imagine him losing this tournament. Djokovic got in his way last year, but he won’t have to worry about that here. And while Alcaraz has had Sinner’s number, the Italian is much better in these conditions.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
