The 2024 ATP Tour comes to an end with the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, Italy. Eight of the best players in the world are battling for the last big trophy — and paycheck — of the year, as Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev are all in this competition. That list does exclude Novak Djokovic, who is taking time off to heal up and get ready for the 2025 Australian Open. But this is still a loaded field, so there will be a bunch of good matches. We’re getting to the business end of it now, as group play is almost over. I’m going to continue to handicap the action daily, especially with the semifinals approaching. With that out of the way, keep reading for some best bets for Thursday, November 14th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 843-827 (+36.98 units)
Alex De Minaur vs. Taylor Fritz
De Minaur has a winning head-to-head record against Fritz. However, I have a hard time believing the Australian will be able to beat him on indoor hard courts. The court speeds here just make Fritz’s serve incredibly difficult to return. His flat, powerful groundstrokes are also lethal here. That’s hard to ignore when facing a player that lacks a big-time serve and doesn’t really have the ability to pound winners. De Minaur is definitely one of the better grinders in the sport, but that style of play isn’t exactly rewarded on a court like this one. Also, Fritz continues to get better and better at staying in long rallies. So, De Minaur can’t expect to just keep rallies alive and hope that Fritz misses. The American will be ready for that.
Fritz can also get into the semifinals still, so he has a lot more to play for here. De Minaur is simply playing to avoid going winless at the year-end event. So, while De Minaur is definitely a competitive guy, there will be a clear difference in motivation.
I also can’t help but think that De Minaur still hasn’t found his best game since injuring his hip at Wimbledon. Sure, he has won some big matches in that time, but he doesn’t have the same power on either his serve or forehand. All of that makes it easy for me to lay the games with Fritz.
Bet: Fritz -2.5 Games (-125 – 1.5 units)
NOTE: I gave this out on the picks page at -125, but it’s now -150. I’d be willing to play -2.5 at anything up to -150. If you can’t find it, I’d look into a ML parlay of Fritz and Sinner. You’d get it at just about -155 and there’d be less risk with no game spread.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner
This is going to be a small play for me, but I’m taking a shot on Sinner to have more aces than Medvedev. When these two met in Shanghai last month, Sinner had nine aces to Medvedev’s three. Sinner has also served up more aces than Medvedev in three of their last five matches. That’s really not surprising either. Over the last 52 weeks, Sinner has a higher Ace Rate (10.2%) than Medvedev (8.2%) on hard courts. So, while Medvedev will likely try and go bigger with his serve to make up for the gap in talent here, I think it’s worth taking a shot on the Italian to have more aces at plus-money odds. It also doesn’t hurt that Medvedev is coming off a performance in which he made 68.0% of his first serves against De Minaur. That was an uncharacteristically awesome serving performance from Medvedev, who has really dropped off as a server over the last two years. Some regression could be coming.
Bet: Sinner To Have Most Aces (+152 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
