Turin sets the stage for the 2025 ATP Finals, where the world’s best clash for season-ending supremacy and bettors hunt for value in every match. Home favorite — and defending champion — Jannik Sinner headlines a loaded field that includes Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Lorenzo Musetti. Unfortunately, Novak Djokovic decided not to play after winning a title in Athens over the weekend.
The fast indoor conditions at this tournament amplify serves and aggression, meaning each matchup offers unique angles for side, total, and prop bettors looking to close the tennis year on a high note.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Alex de Minaur vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Ben Shelton vs. Alexander Zverev
Alcaraz’s loss to Cam Norrie in Paris definitely left a sour taste in many mouths, but the Spaniard should still look very good against all non-Sinner opponents this week. Alcaraz’s hold percentage is a career high 87.4%, he’s hitting spots with more regularity, and his forehand is bigger than ever. All of that has made him more dangerous in quicker conditions, and it’s just hard to imagine de Minaur coming up with enough offense to win this match. De Minaur has gotten a lot better as a server and first-strike player, but that’s still not his bread and butter. He wants to grind out wins, which will be difficult to do on a court that favors aggression.
To get a better price on Alcaraz moneyline, I’m pairing the Spaniard with Zverev to win a set against Shelton. I wouldn’t be stunned if this ends up being a Shelton win, as this is a match with two very strong servers. We’ll likely see a tiebreaker or two, and both players will have opportunities. However, Zverev is 4-0 in four career meetings with Shelton, and the German has lost only one set against the American. With that in mind, even if Zverev does lose this match, I can’t quite see it happening in straights. Zverev’s serve is every bit as good as Shelton’s, plus the German’s a much better returner. Also, Zverev’s backhand will be the biggest weapon on the court.
PARLAY: Alcaraz ML & Zverev +1.5 Sets (-149)
ATP Finals Futures – Thoughts
I don’t have any futures for this tournament. I think Sinner will end up bringing the hardware home for the second year in a row, but it’s not worth a play at -140. If he faces Alcaraz again, how far off will the price be in that match alone?
The one outside-the-box consideration I made was taking Auger-Aliassime to make the semifinals. I think there’s a decent chance he emerges with the second-best round-robin resume in the Bjorn Borg Group, which features Sinner, Zverev, and Shelton. However, the best price I found on it was +160. That’s not good enough. I’ll just look to take Auger-Aliassime in his matches against Zverev and Shelton.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
