Turin sets the stage for the 2025 ATP Finals, where the world’s best clash for season-ending supremacy and bettors hunt for value in every match. Home favorite — and defending champion — Jannik Sinner headlines a loaded field that includes Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Lorenzo Musetti. Unfortunately, Novak Djokovic decided not to play after winning a title in Athens over the weekend.
The fast indoor conditions at this tournament amplify serves and aggression, meaning each matchup offers unique angles for side, total, and prop bettors looking to close the tennis year on a high note. Let’s get into some picks for Tuesday, November 11.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz
After defeating Musetti on Monday, Fritz noted that the court speeds allowed him to rush the Italian. Well, the American might be able to do the same against Alcaraz here. Of course, Alcaraz is way better than Musetti. However, the Spaniard has struggled indoors throughout his career.
Alcaraz has gotten better on quicker surfaces. That’s why he’s a menace on grass, and he had more success on hard courts than usual this year — with titles in Rotterdam and the US Open being two highlights. However, we did see Alcaraz lose his first match at the Rolex Paris Masters a few weeks ago, and he was a little shaky in the opening set against de Minaur in his first round-robin match here.
The reality is that Alcaraz’s serve and forehand can overwhelm opponents when they’re on. But he’s still prone to some shaky days with both. Well, Fritz will likely cruise through most of his service games. That said, if the American can do a good job of putting returns in play — or Alcaraz is off with his first serve — he might be able to make this a match.
Fritz actually did beat Alcaraz at the Laver Cup this year, so there should be a belief that he can get the job done. Also, while Alcaraz beat Fritz 6-4, 6-4 in Tokyo, that match was a little more competitive than the score suggests. Fritz just needs to hit his spots and take advantage of any balls that can be put away. In Tokyo, he had opportunities to hit winners, or drag Alcaraz even further off the court. But he was a little too hesitant to aim for smaller margins, giving Alcaraz chances to steal points. Those are chances the Spaniard generally takes advantage of.
It’s also worth noting that there does seem to be some significant money on Fritz, according to our betting splits. Alcaraz opened as a favorite of -554 at DraftKings Sportsbook, and a heavy majority of the tickets are on the Spaniard. However, Alcaraz is down to -421 at DK now.
Bet: Fritz +1.5 Sets (+114) & Fritz ML (+360 – 0.25 units)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alex de Minaur
Musetti looked miserable against Fritz in his opening match, despite the fact that he’s playing at home. These just aren’t the best conditions for Musetti’s game, and he also looks extremely fatigued after having finished as the runner-up in Athens last week. That makes it a little hard to envision him staying within two games against de Minaur. This is another one in which the betting splits suggest de Minaur is the right play, as the Australian jumped from -148 to -262 at DraftKings. However, I’m laying 2.5 games instead of dealing with significant juice with the moneyline.
If Musetti isn’t completely dialed in with his serve, there’s just a real chance de Minaur runs away with one of the sets. The Australian is one of the best returners on the ATP Tour, and he’ll consistently put pressure on the Italian. De Minaur is also good enough to consistently hold against an out-of-form Musetti. I also like de Minaur’s game to trouble Musetti. The Australian will look to make Musetti hit a lot of backhands, and that’s going to be tough on the Italian in faster conditions. De Minaur will also come to the net a bunch, and he’s an elite volleyer.
Musetti has had the edge in this head-to-head recently, but those were in slower clay tournaments. De Minaur should flip the script here.
Bet: De Minaur -2.5 Games (-125 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
