ATP Monte-Carlo Masters: Tennis best bets for Holger Rune vs. Andrey Rublev – Sunday, April 16th


ATP Monte-Carlo Masters: Tennis best bets for Holger Rune vs. Andrey Rublev – Sunday, April 16th

We’re into the finals at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters, which is the first 1000-level tournament of the year that’s played on clay. With that said, check out what we have for this massive battle between Holger Rune and Andrey Rublev on Sunday, April 16th. One of these players is going to be winning their first Masters 1000 title on clay, which is a very big deal — or in Rublev’s case, their first 1000-level title, in general. That means that there’s a lot on the line in this one, and we’re excited to see how it plays out. But we do have a pretty strong feeling that we know how this one will go, so you’re not going to want to miss out on our prediction. 


MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 16

Holger Rune vs. Andrey Rublev

Rublev beat Rune in an epic five-set match at the Australian Open, and the Russian also happened to play earlier in the day yesterday. However, the oddsmakers have still tabbed Rune as a sizable favorite to win this match, and we think that’s the right call. While Rublev did beat Rune in Melbourne, the Danish phenom was very close to winning that match. In fact, he had a 5-0 lead in a fifth-set tiebreaker, but he was unable to cross the finish line. But that performance was wildly impressive from the 19-year-old, who happened to be playing through an injury in that tournament. And Rune won their previous matchup in straight sets, which came during his first 1000-level title run in Paris in 2022. 

Rune also happens to be the stronger clay-court player between these two. Stats won’t exactly help support that, as Rune is such a fresh face on the ATP Tour. But the eye test definitely tells the story. Rune is already one of the most graceful clay-court movers on the tour, and he does a great job of making opponents hit extra shots. If you do that enough throughout a match, it will eventually lead to unforced errors and bad decision making from the player on the other side of the net. That’s exactly what we saw out of Jannik Sinner in Rune’s win over the Italian in the semifinals. 

Rublev does have an advantage in the power department here, but that’s not something to worry too much about. Rune does a great job of soaking in that pace and giving it right back to his opponents. Rune also happens to be a better returner between these two, and that will be especially important when he gets a look at Rublev’s second serve. Rublev has one of the weaker second serves on tour, so those could end up being free points for the 19-year-old. 

It’s also hard to ignore that Rune is an arrogant player with a true knack for bringing drama to his matches. That could end up getting under the skin of Rublev, who tends to run very hot on the court. The Russian can occasionally get very rattled on the court, but Rune’s level seems to rise when things get a little nutty out there. With all of that in mind, we’re dropping a hammer on this play and suggesting a two-unit bet on Rune. This hasn’t been the best tournament for us, but we’re hoping to go out on a positive note. 

Bet: Rune ML (-150, 2 units)