Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 4 of the 2025 Australian Open:
The 2025 Australian Open has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The top ATP players in the world are in Melbourne for the season’s first major, and we’re not far from the portion of the tournament in which every match will feature household names. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite selections for Day 4 of the matches on the men’s side, which will be played on Tuesday, January 14th and Wednesday, January 15th for those of us in the United States. The day will feature guys like Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic in action, so you won’t want to miss out on these matches. I also have two women’s tennis best bets for those that are interested.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 41-33 (+5.33 units)
Jakub Mensik vs. Casper Ruud
If Ruud has a million fans, I am one of them. If Ruud has 10 fans, I am one of them. If Ruud has only one fan, that fan is me. If Ruud has no fans, I’m no longer on earth. And if the world is against Ruud, then I am against the world. Having said all of that, I like Mensik’s chances of beating the Norwegian in the second round. I viewed this as a dangerous spot for Ruud when originally seeing the draw, and the first round only made me feel worse about it. While Ruud needed five sets to outlast Jaume Munar, Mensik mostly dominated in his four-set win against Nikoloz Basilashvili. The rankings might tell you a different story, but Basilashvili is a better — and more dangerous — player than Munar.
Ruud just hasn’t been an elite fast-court player in quite some time. Outside of some excellent late-season performances at the ATP Finals, most of his success comes on clay courts. Sure, Ruud still beats the players he’s supposed to handle easily on hard courts, but going out and beating guys with firepower is difficult for him. Well, saying Mensik has firepower is an understatement. The Czech has a booming first serve, can rip shots from the back of the court and plays with his foot on the gas at all times. He’s going to be able to push Ruud around a little, and I’m not sure the three-time Grand Slam runner-up is going to be able to impose his will on the match. I’m especially interested in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges, where Mensik’s ability to unload with the two-hander could give him an edge in points.
Ruud is also a player that can occasionally get a little tight, so playing with expectations against an aggressive, free-swinging 19-year-old with nothing to lose might not be for him.
Bet: Mensik ML (+120)
Jacob Fearnley vs. Arthur Cazaux
If you didn’t know it before his straight-set win over Nick Kyrgios, Fearnley is legit and is only going to rise in the ATP rankings. And the former TCU star now has a very reasonable second-round match to really make something of this trip to Melbourne. Cazaux is a player with impressive shot-making ability, and he has always been a player with serious potential. But fitness and conditioning are question marks for the Frenchman, so playing three hours and 46 minutes in a five-set win over Sebastian Baez isn’t going to do him any favors here. And it’s going to hurt Cazaux knowing that he could have wrapped that thing up a lot faster. He was serving with two set points for a 2-0 lead, and he probably would have wrapped it up in straight sets if he got that game.
If Cazaux isn’t 100% physically for this match, I’m just not sure he has what it takes to beat Fearnley. Cazaux might have power from both wings, and the ball explodes off his racquet. But the former might not matter against a player that re-directs pace extremely well, and the latter hasn’t amounted to Cazaux being a player that holds serve easily.
I just like that Fearnley is a player that can win long rallies, and I also love how many matches he has won over the last two years. He was an absolute force on the Challenger Tour, and he has had some nice results at the ATP level. When there are big moments in this match, Fearnley will play with confidence and he’ll play with purpose.
Bet: Fearnley ML (-120 – 1.5 units)
RELATED: Check out my two women’s side best bets for Day 4 at the Australian Open!
Jordan Thompson vs. Nuno Borges
If this match wasn’t being played in Australia, I think there’s a good chance Borges would be favored. He’s just coming into this event on a great run of form, as he is 5-2 to start the 2025 season. He also happened to win one of those matches against Mensik, which is rather impressive considering the difference in power. Borges also happened to look insanely good in his win over a red-hot Alexandre Muller in the first round, winning 6-7 (2), 6-3, 6-2, 7-5. He was really hitting his spots with his serve, and he was doing a great job of dictating play from the baseline. After seeing that performance, it feels like the right move to take him at plus-money odds to beat Thompson. I’m also sprinkling -1.5 sets.
Thompson was able to win his opening-round match 7-6 (3), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 against Dominik Koepfer. But Koepfer hasn’t been a factor on the ATP Tour in quite some time. If we’re looking at the last matches like NCAA Tournament resumes, Borges had a good-looking Quadrant 2 win and Thompson could have looked better in a Quadrant 3 win. Of course, one match doesn’t mean everything. But Thompson did have to retire in the quarterfinals of Brisbane, and it has now been a few weeks since he really showed much of anything. So, Borges has a big advantage when it comes to recent form here.
I also just like Borges’ baseline game against Thompson. The Australian is in great shape and can really grind out wins. He’s also a guy that plays bigger than his size when it comes to the serve-and-volley game. But Borges might be able to frustrate him with how consistently he hits deep into the court. Thompson isn’t going to like being pushed back, where it’ll be harder for him to play the kind of tennis that wins him matches.
This is also a tough spot for an Australian player. Thompson is going to be expected to win this match, despite the fact he’s facing an opponent that can easily best him on any given day. He’s going to be under a lot of pressure, but Borges shouldn’t be feeling any. And if you’re worried about how Borges will hold up mentally, this is a guy that beat Rafael Nadal in his last ever trip to a final last year. He can keep his cool in big moments.
Bet: Borges ML (+125) & Borges -1.5 Sets (+200 – 0.5 units)
Pedro Martinez vs. Alexander Zverev
When looking for my daily tennis best bets, I usually begin the process by just scanning through the moneylines, spreads and totals and circling anything I plan to come back to. Well, I had to do a double take when I saw this total. You just don’t see 28.5 very often in a best-of-five match, and that’s especially true in the second round. So, when I saw this one, I immediately looked to the Over.
Zverev should win this match pretty easily, but you can win in straight sets and still go Over this mark. In fact, Zverev did that in the first round, beating Lucas Pouille 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. And honestly, the way he looked in that match definitely makes me believe he can gift Martinez a set — or go to a tiebreaker at some point. Zverev was just 3 for 18 on break-point chances against Pouille, and that’s a miserable returning performance. And Martinez looked good against Luciano Darderi before he retired from the match, and he’s a more dangerous baseline opponent than Pouille for Zverev. The German just injured his bicep and had to pull out of United Cup, so there’s no telling how long it’ll take for him to find his best stuff. And Martinez is a grinder from the baseline, so he’s going to put some pressure on Zverev.
We just need to watch this match and hope that Martinez serves pretty well. If he does, there’s no reason the Over won’t hit.
Bet: Over 28.5 (-115)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
