Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 6 of the 2025 Australian Open:
The 2025 Australian Open has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The top WTA players in the world are in Melbourne for the season’s first major, and we’re not far from the portion of the tournament in which every match will feature household names. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite selections for Day 6 of the matches on the women’s side, which will be played on Thursday, January 16th and Friday, January 17th for those of us in the United States. The day will feature players like Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka in action, so you won’t want to miss out on it. Also, check out my men’s best bets for Day 6.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 47-36 (+9.48 units)
Belinda Bencic vs. Naomi Osaka
Osaka is coming off a big win over Karolina Muchova. That’s a victory over a player that a lot of people like to make runs at every single major. So, the popular thought will be that Osaka is back to her slam-winning level. As of right now, that’s what our VSiN tennis betting splits show. A lot of people are running to back Osaka, and there’s a lot of money on the four-time major champion. But I think it’s risky to back popular favorites, and I definitely think it’s a bad idea to back Osaka against Bencic. The Swiss star has fallen in the rankings, but that’s only because she took time off for the birth of her child. She’s a former world No. 4 and is 3-1 in WTA-level matches against Osaka. She has also looked pretty good to start the 2025 season.
Osaka is a better server than Bencic, but that’s one of the only real advantages I’d give her. Outside of the serve and raw power from the baseline, Bencic has a lot of edges against Osaka. She is a smarter player, she has more in her tool kit to throw off opponents and she’s a much better mover. All of that should amount to this being a very close match — at the very least. But I genuinely think we’re going to see Bencic find a way through. She hasn’t yet dropped a set in this tournament, and she’s now coming in with very little to lose. Meanwhile, Osaka is back in a position in which people are expecting her to win. She hasn’t dealt with that well in the past.
Bet: Bencic ML (+116)
RELATED: Check out my best bets for the men’s action on Day 6 of the Australian Open!
Marta Kostyuk vs. Paula Badosa
Badosa has been a little more consistent than Kostyuk in recent years, but the Ukrainian’s very best is good enough to give the Spaniard trouble. Last year, Kostyuk reached her peak Elo rating of 1986.4 in April. That was part of a run in which she looked like a legitimate top-10 player on tour and turned in several impressive runs. Badosa also happened to have some big-time stretches last year, including the run up to the US Open. But Kostyuk is looking much closer to her peak level than Badosa is right now. After a somewhat tough win over Nao Hibino in the first round, Kostyuk won 6-3, 6-0 against Jule Niemeier. It was an outrageous performance from Kostyuk in pretty much every area of the game. Badosa was also rather dominant in her second-round match, winning 6-1, 6-0 against Talia Gibson. But that opponent had no business being in the second round, and Badosa wasn’t as good against Xinyu Wang in the first round.
I just can’t help but think that Badosa shouldn’t be expected to run Kostyuk off the court. Kostyuk is one of the best returners in the women’s game, so she should be able to put some pressure on the Badosa serve. And I’m interested in seeing how Badosa handles that. We’re not that far removed from her collapse against Emma Navarro at the US Open, and something like that weighs on you in big moments.
These two also happened to meet at the Australian Open in both 2019 and 2022. When they met in 2019, Badosa earned a 7-6 (6), 6-3 win. But Kostyuk was just a teenager. In 2022, Kostyuk took a set off Badosa and had a shot to win in the third. And Kostyuk was up 6-2, 1-0 before Badosa retired when they met at Wimbledon. She’s now 22 years old and is ready to compete in matches like this. And I’d go as far as to say that I prefer her baseline game to Badosa’s. So, if Kostyuk can just turn in a decent serving effort, she should win a set in this one. I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. There’s not much that separates these two. This should be the year we see that.
Bet: Kostyuk +1.5 Sets (-149) & Kostyuk ML (+195 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
