Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 8 of the 2025 Australian Open:
The 2025 Australian Open has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The top ATP players in the world are in Melbourne for the season’s first major, and we’re into the most exciting part of the event. It’s nothing but blockbusters from here. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite selections for Day 8 of the matches on the men’s side, which will be played on Saturday, January 18th and Sunday, January 19th for those of us in the United States. The day will feature guys like Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic in action, so you won’t want to miss out on these matches. Also, check out my two women’s best bets for Day 8.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 55-45 (+8.79 units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Tommy Paul
Jiri Lehecka vs. Novak Djokovic
I don’t see any sides or totals that I love for Day 8, but I did put in an interesting parlay. One of the legs calls for Lehecka to cover a 7.5-game alternate spread against Djokovic. The reason I’m going with 7.5 and not the normal 5.5 spread is that I’m a little nervous about a runaway set from Djokovic. Lehecka has a booming first serve. Last year, he had a hold percentage of 84.7%. This year, the number is up at 94.2% through eight matches. So, even against a great returner like Djokovic, I’d be surprised if the Czech can’t get to a tiebreaker — or close to it — in a couple of sets. However, you always have to account for the possibility of Djokovic winning one in quick, dominant fashion. Even while he struggled against Nishesh Basavareddy and Jaime Faria, he had three sets of 6-2 or better in the eight he played. And he also had a 6-1 set against Tomas Machac. Those tend to come early in the match, when Djokovic has all his energy and his opponents are nervous. But they are capable of coming at any point in a best-of-five match, as sometimes you’ll see players dump away sets to preserve energy. But either way, I think Lehecka’s pure power and ability to end rallies early will make for a competitive match. He’ll try to follow the Reilly Opelka blueprint of swinging big and hoping to avoid longer rallies. I just want some extra insurance out of respect for the 24-time Grand Slam champion.
The other part of this has me hoping for Paul to just beat Davidovich Fokina, and I’m very confident that’s going to happen. The Spaniard had an easy first-round match, as Juncheng Shang retired in the second set. But he has played back-to-back five-set matches coming into this one, and he’s likely going to be exhausted. This is a player that has dealt with injuries somewhat recently, so it’s just not fair to expect his conditioning to be where it normally is. And he’s going to need to be at 100% in order to outlast Paul in a best-of-five match. The American is one of the fittest and fastest players on the planet, and he’s going to have no problem extending rallies and trying to wear down his opponent. But I’ll also note that I’d love Paul’s chances even if Davidovich Fokina was healthy. The Spaniard just isn’t that reliable as a server, and Paul is one of the best returners in the world. He’s going to have Davidovich Fokina stressing with the ball on his racquet, making it hard to imagine this one not going Paul’s way.
PARLAY: Lehecka Alt Spread +7.5 Games & Paul ML (-154 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
