Tennis picks today for Day 2 of the 2025 Australian Open:
After a very short offseason, the 2025 Australian Open is here. The best ATP and WTA players in the world are in Melbourne for the season’s first major, and I’m exciting about dishing out my daily tennis best bets throughout the event. Keep reading for my favorite selections for Day 2 of the action, which will be played on Sunday, January 12th and Monday, January 13th for those of us in the United States.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 35-26 (+5.27 units)
Sofia Kenin vs. Coco Gauff
This is nothing but a tiny dart throw for me, so I wouldn’t suggest risking your usual amount on this play. But we saw some good performances from Kenin, the 2020 Australian Open champion, in Auckland and Hobart. Kenin beat up on Xiyu Wang in the Round of 32 at the ASB Classic, and she followed that up with a 4-6, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (3) loss to the highly-talented Clara Tauson. Then, in Hobart, Kenin earned wins over Lulu Sun and Anna Blinkova. Kenin has been a very disappointing player over the last couple of years, but she’s unbelievably dangerous when she’s striking the ball cleanly — which is really just a matter of whether or not she’s locked in with her footwork.
Of course, Gauff is the hottest player on the planet right now, as she won the WTA Finals in 2024 and opened 2025 with a United Cup win. Gauff is hitting the forehand better than ever, and that shot has been an anchor keeping her from legitimately crashing the top tier on the WTA Tour. If she comes out and hits that shot with confidence, she’s going to have no trouble beating Kenin. However, I have a gut feeling that we’ll see at least one competitive set here. With this being a battle between two American players, Kenin will feel like she should win this match. Tennis players don’t generally fear their fellow countrymen or countrywomen. And if Kenin is clobbering the ball to Gauff’s forehand side, she might be able to extract some errors there.
I should note that I view Gauff as a legitimate contender to win this tournament, and I have been nothing but complimentary of her in recent weeks. Last year, I was very critical of her inability to hit the forehand and fix her double-fault woes. But I’m very impressed by how hard she’s working to overcome those problems. I just think that there’s a shot Kenin can make things a little uncomfortable in Rod Laver Arena. So, at nearly 3-1 odds, I’m trusting my instincts. You only have to go back to October for a tournament in which Kenin beat Xinyu Wang, Clara Tauson, Daria Kasatkina and Katie Boulter. And she had a shot against Qinwen Zheng in the final. There’s still a high-level player in there somewhere.
Bet: Kenin +1.5 Sets (+275 – 0.25 units)
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Jakub Mensik
This is going to be a very interesting match. Mensik is only 19 years old, but he’s already No. 49 in the world. Many view Mensik as a future top-10 player, and he is coming off a season in which he went 26-20 at the ATP level. Mensik has good size, the ability to go big with his serve and a ton of power from the baseline. He can straight up bully people from back there. However, Mensik got a pretty brutal draw in Basilashvili. While the Georgian had to go through qualifying to get into the main draw, he’s way more than a qualifier-level talent. He’s a former world No. 16 that nearly won Indian Wells in 2021, and it’s not like he’s way up there in age. At 32, he can easily find success at the ATP level again. Basilashvili just needs some better luck in the injury department.
As far as the matchup goes, Basilashvili has the ability to match the baseline power of Mensik. He can hit the cover off the ball, especially from the forehand side. And it’s that forehand that makes me feel very good about this being a match that takes longer than three sets to decide. Basilashvili should be able to control points from that side of the court. He just needs some consistency when it’s his time to serve. For as much power as Basilashvili has been able to generate with his forehand, the strength of his right arm has never translated to above-average serving. That’s ultimately what’s keeping me from picking him to upset Mensik. But I trust that Basilashvili can put together a set or two in which he is rising to the occasion and hitting his spots with the ball on his racquet. He looked comfortable serving in qualifying. And if he’s not gifting Mensik easy breaks, this should be a longer match than people think.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-130)
Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Ashlyn Krueger
We haven’t seen the best of Tomljanovic in a long time, but I like her chances of winning a set against Krueger. These two just played one another in Adelaide, where Krueger earned a 7-6, 6-4 win in qualifying. Sure, a straight-set win might not seem all that close, but Tomljanovic was up 5-2 in the first set and let it slip away. She really should have gotten on the board there, but she got tight in big moments. However, Tomljanovic was coming off a minor knee injury heading into that event. She should be a little closer to 100% here. Also, I’d be pretty surprised if it’s not Krueger that gets tight in big moments here.
This match is going to be played at Margaret Court Arena, where the Australian fans will be packed in to try and help Tomjlanovic through. That might be a little hard for Krueger to deal with. She’s just 20 years old and this will only be her fourth main draw match at a major outside of the United States. If Tomljanovic catches Krueger going through it mentally, she’ll shift her strategy a bit and force Krueger to beat herself. Tomjlanovic does like to play an aggressive brand of tennis, but she’s been around the block long enough to know how to adjust. And speaking of adjustments, I trust a veteran like Tomljanovic to do a better job of learning from the Adelaide match than a youngster like Krueger.
Bet: Tomljanovic +1.5 Sets (-128)
Dominic Stricker vs. James Duckworth
Stricker’s ranking has absolutely plummeted, which is why Duckworth is a short favorite to win this match — and being Australian doesn’t hurt. However, it’s a little a hard to imagine Duckworth doing anything that makes Stricker uncomfortable here. Last year, Duckworth went 9-15 at the ATP level. Including the two ATP-level matches he has played this year, Duckworth is now 18-37 since the start of the 2022 season. So, while Duckworth is more experience than Stricker, this isn’t exactly an intimidating matchup for the southpaw. In fact, Stricker has more ATP-level wins than Duckworth over the last four years, and he has it in much fewer matches.
Over the years, Stricker’s serve has been more of a weapon than Duckworth’s. And while Duckworth has slightly higher break percentages, Stricker should be able to put some pressure on his serve. And when it comes to baseline play, Stricker has the potential to push him around. Duckworth likes to think of himself as an aggressive player, but he’s not exactly dangerous in any regard. Stricker is. The Swiss player might struggle with consistency, but he’s a ball-basher. If he gets hot, he has the potential to run Duckworth off the court. So, while neither of these guys have compelling numbers coming into this match, it’s hard to lay off Stricker as plus-money odds. We have seen the lefty play some of his best tennis on the biggest stages. This is a guy that beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at the US Open in 2023.
Bet: Stricker ML (+120)
Jacob Fearnley vs. Nick Kyrgios
It’s hard to defend some of Kyrgios’ off-court antics. He’s annoying and borders on being evil. However, he’s a very fun player to watch, so I’m excited to see him back in action. But Kyrgios hasn’t won an ATP match since October 6th, 2022. That said, this isn’t exactly the guy that made the Wimbledon final three years ago.
In a three-set loss to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard two weeks ago, Kyrgios did show that his serve and overall baseline power haven’t gone anywhere. He had a real shot at winning that match. However, facing the Frenchman isn’t exactly real tennis. Those are very, very quick points, and Kyrgios’ mobility and endurance weren’t tested. Well, Fearnley is a player that can play great counter-punching tennis, so he’s going to try and see what Kyrgios has in the tank. And I tend to think the Brit will outlast him here.
Fearnley isn’t a household name, but he was 30-4 at the Challenger level last year. He also won three hard-court titles at that level. On top of that, Fearnley turned in some impressive performances at the ATP level — including a four-set loss to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon. He really knows how to win matches, and he isn’t going to be afraid of the moment.
I’m also pretty concerned about two minor injuries Kyrgios has been dealing with over the last two weeks. He withdrew from an exhibition match with an abdominal injury, and he also said that his surgically-repaired wrist has been a little sore. Will he even be able to finish this match?
Bet: Fearnley ML (+112 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
