Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 3 of the 2025 Australian Open:
After a very short offseason, the 2025 Australian Open is here. The best ATP and WTA players in the world are in Melbourne for the season’s first major, and I’m exciting about dishing out my daily tennis best bets throughout the event. Keep reading for my favorite selections for Day 3 of the action, which will be played on Monday, January 13th and Tuesday, January 14th for those of us in the United States.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 36-26 (+6.27 units)
Brandon Nakashima vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton is 2-0 with two straight-set wins in two ATP-level meetings with Nakashima, but all four of the sets have featured at least 12 games played. Three of the four sets have featured tiebreakers. These are matches that easily could have gone either way, so it’s a little insane that there are shops giving Nakashima a 36.23% chance of winning. There’s very little that separates these players. Both of them are tremendous servers and mediocre returners, but I’d argue that Nakashima has a slight edge when it comes to decision-making along the baseline. That said, I view this as a 50-50 match. So, it’d be borderline criminal not to at least have something on Nakashima to win outright. I’m also playing him to win a set as part of a two-leg parlay that you’ll see if you keep scrolling.
Bet: Nakashima ML (+176 – 0.5 units)
Gael Monfils vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Grabbing Mpetshi Perricard on the moneyline was one of the two plays I immediately took when odds started to populate for opening-round matches. I thought there was a good chance the big server would be closer to -175 eventually. Well, it looks like you can now get a better number than me, but I’m not really worried about my closing line value here. I simply love the 21-year-old’s chances of knocking off his 38-year-old compatriot.
When Monfils is 100% locked in, he’s capable of serving at an extremely high level. Flawless serving performances have helped him stay relevant later in his career. And winning 81.6% of his first-serve points helped him win a title in Auckland last week. But Monfils’ hold percentage was just 81.7% last season, and it was 80.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, Mpetshi Perricard’s hold percentage was 89.9% in 2024. The youngster might have the best serve in the history of tennis, and that’s just as much because of his second serve as it is his first. He doesn’t quite go the Alexander Bublik route of hitting two first serves, but he doesn’t need to take much off his second serve to significantly up his accuracy. And his second serve is better than a lot of first serves on tour.
Overall, I just don’t see Mpetshi Perricard having any trouble forcing tiebreakers in this match — at the very least. And in those breakers, he’s going to have a slight edge. But I also think we’re going to see some shaky service games out of Monfils. It didn’t happen much in Auckland, but he can occasionally gift his opponents break point opportunities. And while Mpetshi Perricard is a pretty awful returner, Monfils can’t afford to flirt with fire. The big man is a little more athletic and skilled than your average servebot.
I’m also a little worried about Monfils’ body holding up after a long week last week. We started to see some of the classic hands-on-knees moments from Monfils in his final against Zizou Bergs. Is he going to have his legs in Melbourne? And if this match goes the distance, will he be able to continue playing at a high level? The loose service games tend to come when you’re lowest in energy.
Bet: Mpetshi Perricard ML (-140 – 1.5 units)
Stan Wawrinka vs. Lorenzo Sonego
Not only am I taking a small flier on Nakashima, but I also want a little something on Wawrinka. We have not seen the 39-year-old since November, and he was just 9-16 in 2024. However, I like the way Wawrinka matches up with Sonego. The three-time Grand Slam champ has lost a little on his serve, but Sonego was one of the ATP’s worst returners in 2024. The Italian’s 13.5% break percentage was putrid. And overall, an inability to put returns in play was a big part of the reason Sonego posted the lowest winning percentage of his career (42.3%). Well, Sonego’s returning hasn’t looked good through three 2025 matches. And if he isn’t able to figure it out this season, he’s going to struggle to remain in the Top 100. But as far as this match is concerned, Wawrinka is good enough to take advantage of a struggling player. And while he definitely tends to fade physically the further he goes in tournaments, he usually comes out with quite a bit of juice in the opening round.
Bet: Wawrinka ML (+200 – 0.5 units)
Peyton Stearns vs. Emma Navarro
Navarro is 4-0 against Stearns in her career, yet she’s not a heavy favorite in this match. Usually I’ll go the other way on something like this, feeling like a trap is being set by the oddsmakers. But I just can’t help but think Navarro is the right call here, which is why I put this in right when I put in Mpetshi Perricard. Last year, Navarro made two impressive runs at majors, including one at the US Open. She likes hard-court tennis and her steady approach to the game should serve her well against Stearns. While Stearns has an absurd amount of natural shot-making ability, she is a player that can rack up unforced errors. Well, Navarro is going to look to extend rallies and do whatever she can to get under her skin.
Navarro is also a much better server than Stearns, so she should do a better job of avoiding trouble with the ball on her racquet. Stearns’ inability to serve has prevented her from doing much bigger things on tour, and it even prevented her from picking up a big win over Daria Kasatkina just two weeks ago. I envision it being a big problem here.
Bet: Navarro ML (-138 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Nakashima +2.5 Sets vs. Shelton & Rune ML vs. Zhizhen Zhang (-152) – I really like Rune to beat to Zhang, but I’m not taking it at -300. So, I’m using Nakashima’s match against Shelton to get this a little closer to what I’m looking for. I think Nakashima has a shot at beating Shelton, which is why I have a half-unit on the moneyline. But I’d be completely stunned if he can’t at least win a set. So, I think this is a safe way to get the Rune number down.
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
