Australian Open predictions and best bets for Day 4 – January 20-21
The 2026 Australian Open begins this weekend, as the top players in the world are in Melbourne Park for the season’s first major. Well, at VSiN, we’re covering every important tournament, providing you with futures and daily tennis best bets. That continues with some tennis picks for Day 4 of the action, so keep reading for a few of my favorite plays for January 20 and 21. Also, bookmark our Australian Open tennis hub, where you’ll get all of my stories and some additional video content!
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I like to see how odds are moving throughout the day, so I occasionally add picks after posting these columns. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday. With that in mind, if you like betting this sport, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Michael Zheng vs. Cortentin Moutet
Zheng was able to outlast Sebastian Korda in a thrilling five-set match on Day 1, earning a 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 6-7 (0), 6-3 victory to notch the first main-draw win of his career. The talented 21-year-old has been a favorite of mine on the Challenger Tour, where I actually backed him a ton the second half of last season. The Columbia star might now be playing his way out of college tennis, as he could decide that he’s too good to go back to school. That’s always a difficult decision to make, but another win or two here will make it enticing to turn pro. And I think he has a great shot at earning himself another win in Melbourne.
Moutet looked hampered towards the end of his win over Tristan Schoolkate in Round 1, but I would like Zheng’s chances even if the Frenchman was at full strength. Moutet is one of the most skilled players on the ATP Tour, but his lack of size and strength makes it hard for him to hit through opponents. He relies a lot on craft, hoping to eventually catch his opponents in compromising situations. Well, Zheng covers the court extremely well, he’s pretty sturdy from both wings, and he’s a dangerous returner. All of that will give him a chance in this matchup.
Zheng will also have the crowd eating out of the palm of his hand, as he’s now one of the stories of the tournament. Moutet is a bit of a headcase, so he might not like that very much.
Bet: Zheng ML (+112)
Arthur Fery vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Fery is coming off a dominant win over Flavio Cobolli, while Etcheverry needed five sets to beat Miomir Kecmanovic in a very physical match. Naturally, many will wonder whether Etcheverry has the legs to beat a baseline grinder like Fery, but it helps that it’s very early in the season. It’s also big that Etcheverry had some extra time in between the two matches thanks to the Saturday (Sunday) start.
As long as Etcheverry is even remotely close to 100%, I have a hard time envisioning him losing this match. Fery puts a ton of balls in play, and he doesn’t give up on anything. That means you really have to work to win points against him from the back of the court. However, Etcheverry has a massive edge when it comes to serving and overall baseline weapons. And he’s generally a player you can trust when playing inferior competition. Etcheverry has won eight of the 12 matches he has played as a moderate favorite (-152 to -299), according to Tennislytics. Meanwhile, Fery is just 3-12 when playing as a moderate underdog (+150 to +299).
Etcheverry also has a Performance Rating of 7.32 when looking at TennisViz’s Courtside Advantage tools, and that’s a mark that sits above the tour average of 7.29. That might not seem like much, but Fery hasn’t even played enough ATP-level matches to qualify for a score. He’s a Challenger-level player.
Bet: Etcheverry ML (-163)
Francisco Comesana vs. Frances Tiafoe
Yulia Putintseva vs. Elsa Jacquemot
Very little separates Comesana and Tiafoe over the last 52 weeks. In that span, Comesana has a Performance Rating of 7.13, while Tiafoe sits at 7.19. Comesana has actually been the more effective server (8.2 vs. 7.9) between the two, and there isn’t much between them when looking at all the other numbers. So while Tiafoe is undoubtedly one of the most popular players in the sport, I like Comesana’s chances of winning at least a set — especially with the Argentinean being a little more focused on a point-by-point basis. And I’m using this play to get a better price on Putintseva to beat Jacquemot.
I had Putintseva to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia in the opening round, noting that the 31-year-old is starting to look more like the player she was when she was ranked 20th in early 2025. Well, if she truly is back to playing at a high level, this is a match she should win. Putintseva is just a much tougher baseliner than Jacquemot, who probably should have lost her opening-round match against Kostyuk.
PARLAY: Comesana +2.5 Sets & Putintseva ML (-105)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
