Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 6 of the 2025 Australian Open:
The 2025 Australian Open has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The top ATP players in the world are in Melbourne for the season’s first major, and we’re not far from the portion of the tournament in which every match will feature household names. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite selections for Day 6 of the matches on the men’s side, which will be played on Thursday, January 16th and Friday, January 17th for those of us in the United States. The day will feature guys like Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev in action, so you won’t want to miss out on these matches. Also, check out my two women’s best bets.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 47-36 (+9.48 units)
Tomas Machac vs. Novak Djokovic
I have been targeting a Machac play against Djokovic since seeing the draw, and the way I’m doing it is by going Over his individual game total and sprinkling the moneyline. Machac has proven that he’s a high-level talent, and he really did that with a great showing during the Asian swing last year. In Japan, the 24-year-old beat Alexei Popyrin, Tommy Paul and Alex Michelsen before falling in a close match against Ugo Humbert. Then, in Shanghai, he beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Aleksandar Vukic, Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz before going down swinging against Jannik Sinner in the final. The Italian won that match 6-4, 7-5. But Machac looked the part of a top-tier player and held his own in a big way. Now, he’s looking to turn in a career year in 2025.
Machac’s biggest weakness right now is his conditioning, but it sure sounds like he did his best to work on that in the short offseason. Cramps have forced him out of action several times in recent years, and it’s certainly something to monitor heading into a match with Djokovic. The 24-time Grand Slam champion has made his living taking the legs of his opponents and then sticking the knife in them when they’re weakest. But if Machac can get through this one without laboring, there’s a real shot he gives Djokovic some trouble.
The Serbian simply hasn’t looked all that convincing this season. We saw him lose to Reilly Opelka in Brisbane, and he has dropped sets against both Nishesh Basavareddy and Jaime Faria in Melbourne. Well, Machac is a much better player than both of those guys. He’s a better mover, he’s a better server and he has more explosive groundstrokes. And I’m especially interested in seeing the backhand exchanges between these two. Machac can absolutely bomb shots from that wing, so he’s not going to be afraid trading backhands with Djokovic — even if the Serb has one of the best backhands in the history of the sport.
I’m just not seeing a path to Djokovic winning this one convincingly. I’m expecting the legend to turn it on at some point this season, but he is lacking in finishing power right now. Getting the ball by his opponents has been a struggle. Well, Machac has the ability to slap winners.
I also can’t help but think this is somewhat similar to the Joao Fonseca-Andrey Rublev and Jakub Mensik-Casper Ruud matches. Machac is getting a look at an elite opponent that happens to be out of form. That means an opportunity to truly break out and make people notice you — and not just notice how short your shorts are.
Bet: Machac Over 16.5 Games Won (-110 – 1.5 units) & Machac ML (+320 – 0.25 units)
RELATED: Check out my two women’s best bets for Day 6 at the Australian Open!
Jacob Fearnley vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev absolutely smoked Pedro Martinez in his last match, so I was way off in taking the Over there. However, it still feels like Zverev isn’t quite playing the type of tennis he played last year. Martinez had some openings in that match, but he was putting too much pressure on himself. It was hardly a performance in which Zverev had his A-game. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with that. He has a pretty easy draw, so he can play his way into form and find the right gear late in the tournament. However, the right opponent can definitely make him sweat a little more than Lucas Pouille and Martinez did. And Fearnley might be that type of opponent.
From a weapons perspective, Zverev’s serve and backhand will be the most dangerous shots on the court. However, Fearnley is a smart player and knows how to get himself in matches. So, look for the Brit to do everything he can to try and attack the Zverev forehand. And when Zverev does give him short balls, Fearnley is capable of putting them away. He’s a good counter-puncher, but he’s not a pusher. Fearnley can get aggressive and look really sharp playing aggressive tennis. He chooses his spots very well. Fearnley is also solid when it comes to serving, so he can rack up holds if Zverev continues to be somewhat passive as a returner.
Like I have said a bunch, I don’t think Zverev is in danger of actually losing a match until much later in this tournament. But that doesn’t mean he’s going to beat everybody in straight sets. So, at even-money odds, I’m taking a shot on Fearnley to push him to four. Fearnley might be a top-50 player on tour, and he’s being priced as if he’s lucky to be in the Top 100. I see him being a profitable player to back over the next few months.
Bet: Fearnley To Win A Set (+100)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
