Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 7 of the 2025 Australian Open:
The 2025 Australian Open has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The top ATP players in the world are in Melbourne for the season’s first major, and we’re getting to the portion of the tournament in which every match will feature household names. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite selections for Day 7 of the matches on the men’s side, which will be played on Friday, January 17th and Saturday, January 18th for those of us in the United States. The day will feature guys like Jannik Sinner, Alex de Minaur and Taylor Fritz in action, so you won’t want to miss out on these matches. Also, check out my two women’s best bets for Day 7.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 53-41 (+10.03 units)
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Holger Rune
In my look at the men’s draw, I noted that Rune could be in for a big season. He’s back with the coach that has been with him for the biggest moments of his career. And so far, we’re seeing an exceptional version of the 21-year-old. Rune had some trouble in his opening-round win over Zhizhen Zhang, but that’s a talented player that has won some big matches in his career. And Rune followed it up with a tremendous outing against Matteo Berrettini. There were some moments in which Rune fell into old habits, going big when it was unnecessary and just trusting in his outrageous talent when there were better decisions to be made. But for the most part, Rune spent the entire match targeting Berrettini’s weak backhand. And he did a good job of scrambling to get Berrettini’s big forehands back, neutralizing that weapon a bit. But the big story of the match was Rune’s returning. Berrettini is one of the best servers in the world, but Rune was all over it. Returning has been a major issue for Rune in the past, but it seems he’s realizing the importance of just getting balls back and giving himself a chance in rallies. That should work wonders for him.
With Rune looking like he’s taking another step in his career, I just can’t imagine Kecmanovic winning more than a set here. Unlike Berrettini, Kecmanovic doesn’t have any elite weapons. He’s an all-court player like Rune is, but he’s a little more defensive. And while he was ripping the ball against Hubert Hurkacz last match, I’m not sure I see him overpowering Rune from the baseline. I just view this as a match in which Rune is a little better at everything, so he should cruise if he’s as dialed in as he was against Berrettini. And something tells me he will be. Rune has spent the last two years seeing his rivals, Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, pass him by. And now he’s hearing about Joao Fonseca as a potential member of the next Big Three. Rune knows it’s time to remind everybody who he is. To do that, he at least needs to set up a meeting with Sinner in the fourth round.
I also think this is a matchup that Rune has figured out. After losing in straight sets against Kecmanovic in Stockholm in 2023, he also dropped the first set against him in Basel a week later. But Rune then won the next two sets, and he didn’t need a tiebreaker in either of them. I think he’ll carry some of that over to this match.
Bet: Rune -1.5 Sets (-111)
Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Both of these players have been great in Melbourne so far. Shelton beat Brandon Nakashima 7-6 (3), 7-5, 7-5 in the first round. Nakashima is a very big server, so it was impressive that Shelton only needed one tiebreaker in their match. And he actually had a break in the set that had one, so his returning was solid in the match. He then earned a 6-3, 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-4 win over Pablo Carreno Busta, who is another good player. Meanwhile, Musetti beat Matteo Arnaldi 7-6 (4), 4-6, 7-6 (5), 6-3 in the first round, and he followed it up with a 7-6 (3), 7-6 (6), 6-2 win over Denis Shapovalov. So, both of these players have gone through talented opponents Down Under, and this match has the potential to be very exciting. But it’s hard not to see some value in Musetti, who has a slightly higher Elo rating (1894.1 vs. 1881.6) and was a little better in the most important tournaments last year — especially during the summer.
Shelton actually has a higher hard-court Elo rating than Musetti, and I generally understand anybody that believes the American is a better hard-court player. He has one of the best serves on tour and he can pummel the ball from the baseline. He’s also athletic enough to track down everything when he’s defending. But Musetti did earn a 6-4, 7-6 (5) win over Shelton in Miami last year. That’s another very quick hard-court event. So, we have already seen the Italian come up with the goods against Shelton on the American’s best surface.
The thing with these two is that Musetti has more variety and a little more purpose from the baseline. That’s important in a match against Shelton, who has all the natural ability in the world but is still learning how to win matches. It’s entirely possible his tools allow him to push Mussetti around and ultimately win this match. But at plus-money odds, I’m willing to take a shot on the Italian. He’s no slouch in the talent department, and it seems like he has finally figured out how to maximize his game.
Bet: Musetti ML (+128)
RELATED: Check out my two women’s best bets for Day 7 at the Australian Open!
Learner Tien vs. Corentin Moutet
I’m a little shocked to see plus-money odds attached to Moutet. I know that Tien pulled off a big upset win over Daniil Medvedev last match, and that definitely made headlines. So, perhaps there’s an increase in betting interest on an exciting new arrival to the scene. But people need to pump the brakes if they’re seeing similarities between Tien and Joao Fonseca. While the two met in the Next Gen Finals a few weeks ago, they’re not in the same universe as prospects. Tien is a bit of a pusher from the baseline, capable of grinding down opponents and outlasting them. However, I’m not sure he has the weapons required to be a top-25 player at the ATP level. As he stops playing Challengers, it’ll be interesting to where he fits in the landscape. Meanwhile, Fonseca is a player that will be looking to win majors some day.
With all of that in mind, I don’t know that Tien can be expected to continue beating good players. And Moutet is a good player. The tiny lefty isn’t that different from Tien, as he’s a smaller southpaw that doesn’t have the ability to out-muscle opponents. But Moutet has way more to his game than Tien. That includes an elite drop shot, an unreal ability to mix up pace from the baseline and an outrageous mind for the game. His tennis IQ is through the roof. So, this is a match in which we should see a lot of extended rallies, and there will probably be a lot of service breaks. But it’s also one that Moutet should find a way through.
Bet: Moutet ML (+110 – 1.5 units)
Gael Monfils vs. Taylor Fritz
I’d be surprised if both players don’t win a set in this third-round matchup. In 2019, Fritz beat Monfils 6-3, 6-7 (8), 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5) in this tournament. And I just have a feeling we’re going to see a very similar match. Since the start of the 2025 season, Monfils has a hold percentage of 89.3%. He’s also making 60.5% of his first serves and winning 80.3% of his first serve points. He’s just performing like a servebot early in the year, even if that’s not really what he is. But as long as he is easily racking up holds, there’s no reason we won’t see some tightly-contested sets against Fritz. Breaks should come at a premium here.
If we do see a couple of tiebreakers in this match, it’s just unrealistic to expect Fritz to win all of them. The American is an elite player at this point in his career, and he was the runner-up at the 2024 US Open. But Monfils has the type of length and athleticism required to give Fritz some trouble when the Frenchman is returning. So, I’m not sure I see Fritz having clear control of this match throughout.
Another way to attack this would be to take Monfils to win a set, and that play is out there at closer to -140. But I’m not expecting Monfils to win in straight sets against a -833 favorite. So, I’m taking the better odds for both to get on the board.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-121 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
