Tennis best bets for Saturday, January 11th:
The 2025 Australian Open begins on Saturday, January 11th. I already previewed the men’s and women’s draws, and I dished out my futures for both. I also went on Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book podcast to run through the entire tournament. That streamed live on X and we had a lot of fun going back and forth to talk through everything. However, it’s now time to get into the daily best bets for the tournament. I’ll be posting these daily over the next couple of weeks, so make sure you’re coming back for more tennis content. Oddly enough, I only have one play for Day 1 of the Australian Open. That won’t be the case moving forward, as I have about 15 opening-round plays I’m considering. But I know people want a little more than just one, so I’ll also get into my picks for the men’s and women’s finals in Adelaide.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles as I do.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 33-26 (+3.07 units)
Jaume Munar vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud has looked rather sharp since getting back on the court. After a loss to Jannik Sinner in the semifinals of the ATP Finals, the Norwegian took a little over a month off. Then, Ruud earned comfortable wins over Alexander Shevchenko and Sumit Nagal in World Tennis League exhibition action in December. Ruud also went 2-0 in singles play at the United Cup, earning a tough 7-6 (6), 5-7, 6-4 win over Tomas Machac, plus a 7-5, 6-3 win over Hubert Hurkacz. All in all, Ruud comes into this tournament in good form, and he’s a player that I’m expecting to back plenty over the course of 2025. However, I don’t see him running through Munar without a hiccup or two.
While mostly known as a clay-court specialist, Munar picked up some huge wins on Hong Kong last week. It started with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. I looked the other way on that one, as Davidovich Fokina was a bit of a disaster in 2024. But Munar backed it up with a straight-set win over Nuno Borges, and he followed that up with a 2-6, 7-6 (4), 7-5 victory over Lorenzo Musetti. That’s two top-75 wins, plus a top-20 win.
Munar just comes into this event in really solid form, making it hard to imagine Ruud winning in straight sets. Munar might not have the overall weaponry required to upset Ruud, but he has a good baseline game. So, there can easily be a set or two in which Ruud is a little off the mark and Munar runs away with it.
Munar has also played Ruud pretty well in the past. These guys are different players than they were in 2022, but the Spaniard actually earned a 6-3, 6-3 hard-court win over Ruud in Tokyo that year. That was a closed-roof match, so Munar was able to give him trouble in quick conditions. So, I can see it happening again in Melbourne. Ruud does tend to start off tournaments a little slow.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-122)
Added Plays
Madison Keys ML (-118) vs. Jessica Pegula [Adelaide] – I really like Keys’ chances of lifting a trophy in Adelaide. The 29-year-old will probably take this match a little more seriously than Pegula. After all, Pegula lost in the final of the US Open in 2024. While Keys is surely thinking about the Australian Open, it’s hard to imagine Pegula not day-dreaming about getting back to the later rounds of a major to finish her story. Also, Keys is just a little more dangerous than Pegula as a server. So, if she’s dialed in with the ball on her racquet, she should give herself a very good shot at winning this match. Keys actually wiped the court with Pegula at the 2023 US Open, winning 6-1, 6-3 in just over an hour. These are very similar conditions.
There’s also a little more on the line for Keys in tournaments like these. The American probably wants to get a little closer to the Top 10 so that she gets better draws at majors in the future.
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML (+120) vs. Sebastian Korda [Adelaide] – I feel like the wrong player is favored in this match. I’m not going to go crazy with my units here, as I just don’t know what the motivation level is like heading into the Australian Open. However, I believe Auger-Aliassime is a little better than Korda. The Canadian has a better serve and his worst tennis is a little better than Korda’s worst tennis. That’s the thing with Korda. We all praise the American for being one of the smoothest ball-strikers on the ATP Tour, but it’s not uncommon for him to just be completely off the mark. And while Korda has looked good throughout the week, he was out for a long time before arriving in Adelaide. That said, a stinker or two could be incoming. And this is definitely the best player that Korda has faced to start 2025. Auger-Aliassime’s confidence should be through the roof after a very impressive win over Tommy Paul. That was one in which Auger-Aliassime looked extremely competent in longer rallies. That should serve him well here.
