On Sunday, September 13th, Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev will meet in the 2026 US Open men’s final. Shelton will be looking to capture the first Grand Slam title of his career, while Zverev will be chasing his second major of the 2026 season. With Shelton’s explosive left-handed serve and aggressive baseline game going up against Zverev’s elite returning, backhand stability, and big-match experience, there is plenty to break down in a matchup that feels capable of swinging either way. We’ll dive into it all in our Shelton vs. Zverev betting preview.
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Ben Shelton vs. Alexander Zverev Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Saturday, September 12th at 12:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Zverev -152, Shelton +124
Spread: Zverev -1.5 Games (-125), Shelton +1.5 Games (-115)
Total: Over 42.5 Games (-115), Under 42.5 Games (-130)
How To Watch Ben Shelton vs. Alexander Zverev
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Sunday, September 13th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Ben Shelton vs. Alexander Zverev Predictions
If you’ve been following my US Open content, you should have a half-unit on Shelton to win the tournament at 19-1, and we added a three-unit play on Zverev to win at +100 before he defeated Karen Khachanov. That said, you should be able to sit back and enjoy this match as a fan, which is exactly what I’ll be doing. However, I know a lot of people are here looking for my thoughts on this final, and I do have a very strong lean. If I didn’t already have futures here, I’d be putting a pretty sizable play on Zverev at -143 — and would play it up to -160.
Shelton brings a lot to the table, as he has a massive serve, he’s extremely aggressive, and he loves competing on a big stage. There’s undoubtedly a world in which the American will rise to the occasion here, allowing him to become the first male American to win a Grand Slam since Andy Roddick did it in 2003. However, I mentioned -160 as a Zverev price for a reason. I believe the German wins this matchup close to seven times out of 10, making the nuclear Shelton performance a little unlikely.
Zverev is 5-0 against Shelton in his career, and he hasn’t dropped a set in four consecutive meetings with the American. Zverev has also won back-to-back matches with Shelton in fast, low-bouncing conditions — straight-set wins in Cincinnati and the Nitto ATP Finals in 2025. Those are conditions in which you’d expect Shelton to do a bit better against the German, who likes slow-bouncing courts because of his preference for longer rallies.
The on-court stuff just really favors Zverev here. In looking at TennisViz’s Courtside Advantage numbers, Zverev has a ton of advantages. Over the last 52 weeks, both players have a Serve Quality of 8.8 in non-Slams. However, that’s about the only thing that looks good for Shelton. Zverev has a higher Return Quality (7.4 vs. 6.8), Forehand Quality (8.0 vs. 7.3), and Backhand Quality (8.1 vs. 7.1). Also, stylistically, Zverev’s game is built to beat this specific kind of player.
Shelton has played some very disciplined tennis over the last two weeks, but Zverev can hang around in baselines exchanges forever. He’s not going to gift Shelton much of anything. Zverev is also suffocating against lefties, as he is 88-18 against southpaws in his career — and seven of those losses came at the hands of Rafael Nadal.
Zverev’s weaker wing also happen to be the forehand wing, but he won’t mind taking that shot and sending it cross court to the Shelton backhand. Zverev’s forehand can often be the weakest shot from the back of the court when he’s facing strong competition, but the Shelton forehand will be the weakest here.
Zverev also happened to get the monkey off his back in winning Roland Garros earlier in the summer, so he comes into this one with the experience of having won a Grand Slam title — and playing in five other finals. He should have a bit of an easier time dealing with the nerves, even though it will be different as he looks to beat an energetic American, in front of an insane New York crowd.
STRONG LEAN: Zverev ML (-143)
