Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 12, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 177-96 SU (+42.35 units, ROI: 15.5%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-111 vs CLE), SEATTLE (-174 at ATH)
Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 167-172 (-76.88 units, ROI: -22.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-187 vs CIN)
Trend: TEX is 2-10 (-8.16 units) in road night games with starter Kumar Rocker in his career
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+109 at AZ)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are just over the profitability line at 206-164 for +1.79 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+104 at CHC), HOUSTON (+120 at TB), LA ANGELS (+105 at WSH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 62-55 for -11.14 units for an ROI of -9.5%.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-126 vs PIT)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 91-131 for -43.41 units and an ROI of -19.6%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-187 vs CIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-108 at STL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 148-221 start for -27.55 units (-7.5% ROI) after losing about 38 units over the 2-1/2 months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+154 at MIL), COLORADO (+138 at DET)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 103-56 for -21.46 units, ROI -13.5%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-192 at MIA), BOSTON (-225 vs KC)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 40-25 start for -16.56 units and an ROI of -25.5%!
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-225 vs KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 299-361 for -24.32 units, and comes off a rough three-and-a-half-week stretch, giving back over 13 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+104 at CHC), CLEVELAND (-108 at MIN), HOUSTON (+120 at TB), ATHLETICS (+144 vs SEA), LA ANGELS (+105 at WSH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-108 at STL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 176-206 start for -43.44 units (ROI -11.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+109 at TOR), KANSAS CITY (+183 at BOS)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 156-181 for -2.04 units. However, it has lost -15.3 units over the last two months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+138 at DET), MIAMI (+157 vs LAD), CINCINNATI (+154 at MIL), TEXAS (+109 at AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2234-2115 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -274.67 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-126 vs PIT), MILWAUKEE (-187 vs CIN), ARIZONA (-131 vs TEX)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,301-2,891 (44.3%) for -277.53 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+104 at CHC), COLORADO (+138 at DET), HOUSTON (+120 at TB), TEXAS (+109 at AZ), CINCINNATI (+154 at MIL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 402-203 (66.4%) for +58.74 units and an ROI of 9.7%!
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-187 vs CIN)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 177-96 SU (+42.35 units, ROI: 15.5%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-111 vs CLE), SEATTLE (-174 at ATH)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 206-241 SU record for +43.80 units and an ROI of 9.8% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+104 at CHC), CINCINNATI (+154 at MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 339-350 run (+13.21 units, ROI: 1.9%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-108 at STL)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 116-46 (+35.64 units, ROI: 22%) in their last 162 tries.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-186 at SF), LA DODGERS (-192 at MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 219-168 (+25.92 units, ROI: 6.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-186 at SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 279-180 in their last 459 tries (+46.55 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-192 at MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 167-172 (-76.88 units, ROI: -22.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-187 vs CIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 624-618 for +16.69 units, good for +1.4% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: KANSAS CITY +183 (+42 diff), CLEVELAND -108 (+35), ATHLETICS +144 (+26), MIAMI +157 (+21), HOUSTON +120 (+17), SAN FRANCISCO +153 (+15), PITTSBURGH +104 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA -131 (+36 diff), MILWAUKEE -187 (+15), NY YANKEES -171 (+15), ST LOUIS -112 (+14), DETROIT -168 (+14)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 124-99 for +12.60 units and an ROI of 5.7%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: PIT-CHC UNDER 9.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PITTSBURGH (74-73) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (81-66)
Trend: Under the total is 10-4-1 (+5.50 units) when Paul Skenes is a slight underdog (-104 to +115 line range) since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CHC (o/u at 9.5)
(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (89-57) at (954) MIAMI (72-75)
Trend: LAD is 58-82 (-29.80 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at MIA)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow’s teams are 49-15 (+13.67 units) when he starts as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: Tyler Glasnow’s teams are 15-5 (+4.00 units) when he starts vs NL East opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-192 at MIA)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (82-65) at (956) ATLANTA (86-61)
Trend: ATL is 50-26 (+12.73 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-137 vs PHI)
(965) KANSAS CITY (65-82) at (966) BOSTON (80-67)
Trend: KC is 27-46 (-14.32 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+183 at BOS)
(969) SEATTLE (69-78) at (970) ATHLETICS (59-88)
Trend: ATH is 28-45 (-20.47 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+144 vs SEA)
(971) COLORADO (55-91) at (972) DETROIT (67-79)
Trend: Under the total is 41-27-4 (+11.30 units) in DET home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-DET (o/u at 8.5)
(975) NEW YORK-NL (68-78) at (976) NEW YORK-AL (84-62)
Trend: Under the total is 67-50-5 (+12.00 units) when NYY is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-NYY (o/u at 8)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 29-9 (+5.07 units) when he starts at home vs teams with a losing record in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-171 vs NYM)
(977) CHICAGO-AL (75-71) at (978) ST LOUIS (72-75)
Trend: Over the total is 56-31-1 (+21.90 units) in CWS night games this season
Trend: Over the total is 29-10 (+18.15 units) in Luis Castillo’s last 39 road starts
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-STL (o/u at 8.5)
(979) TEXAS (72-75) at (980) ARIZONA (78-69)
Trend: TEX is 30-46 (-23.83 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 at AZ)
Trend: TEX is 2-10 (-8.16 units) in road night games with starter Kumar Rocker in his career
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+109 at AZ)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Fri 9/11-Sun 9/13
Trend: PITTSBURGH is 13-26 (33.3%, -9.40 units) in their last 39 games at Wrigley Field
– The ROI on this trend is -24.1%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+104 at CHC)
Series #32: Cleveland at Minnesota, Fri 9/11-Sun 9/13
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 41-20 (67.2%, +21.02 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 34.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-108 at MIN)
Series #33: Cincinnati at Milwaukee, Fri 9/11-Sun 9/13
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 40-16 (71.4%, +19.75 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play
– The ROI on this trend is 35.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-187 vs CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): PITTSBURGH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, NY YANKEES, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ARIZONA
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, September 14)
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