MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, September 13.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez has allowed at least five runs in each of his past three starts, bringing his ERA to 3.94 with four walks per nine innings. He has been far better at home, with a 3.31 ERA and 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, compared to a 4.54 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Dodgers were expected to have Justin Wrobleski start this game, but unexpectedly had him throw multiple innings of relief on Saturday, which will likely make this a wholesale game for them with a bullpen that is 19th in ERA since July 1 at 4.15.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline +130
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins +120
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has had the worst season of his career with a 4.82 ERA. He has a career-low 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings with 1.4 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings. His ERA is 5.91 with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed in his past 14 starts. Astros starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski has pitched to a lot of contact with only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He does have a 3.35 ERA thanks to limiting damage with 0.6 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings. Wesneski is supported by a lineup that ranks sixth in road scoring with 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Astros vs. Rays Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
2:20 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has been dealing with command issues all season, getting 8.2 strikeouts and 4.5 walks per nine innings. He faces a Cubs lineup that leads the league in scoring with over 5.3 runs per game. Cubs starting pitcher Matthew Boyd owns a 4.02 ERA and 4.41 fielding independent, with a 4.98 ERA and just over 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed in seven starts since August began.
Pick: Pirates vs. Cubs Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.2
4:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics
Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez overall this season owns a 4.78 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine innings allowed. He has been significantly better of late with two runs or fewer allowed in 11 of his past 12 appearances, with over 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings in that span. Lopez will face a Mariners lineup that is last in the league in scoring with less than four runs per game. Though Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller has allowed four runs or more in four of his past five starts, he does face an Athletics lineup that has each of their top three players in home runs currently on the injured list.
Pick: Mariners vs. Athletics Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3
7:20 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta is making just his second start since April and has only went 21 total innings in his five starts this season/ Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has seen his strikeout per nine inning rate plummet to a career-low 7.3. His ERA has gone up to 4.10, having allowed a combined 17 runs across 16 2/3 innings in his past four starts.
Pick: Padres vs. Giants Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
