The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2026 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are competing at the Paris La Defense Arena for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next week or so. That begins with my Day 1 tennis predictions and best bets for Monday, November 2. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
Rolex Paris Masters Futures
Carlos Alcaraz To Win Tournament (+187 – 2 units)
I had a bigger play on Alcaraz to win Vienna last week, as the Spaniard’s draw was remarkably easy. In Paris, Alcaraz will face the winner of Alex Michelsen and Jiri Lehecka in the second round, then he could see some of the following names before even reaching the semifinals: Ugo Humbert, Arthur Fils, Taylor Fritz. It’ll take a lot more for Alcaraz to lift the trophy this week, but I still think he’ll get it done. In Vienna, Alcaraz had a TennisViz Performance Rating of 9.00. That was the first time he posted a PR of 9.00 or higher since his run to the Indian Wells semifinals in March. It sure seems like he’s starting to find his peak level again, and that level is something only Jannik Sinner can match. Well, Sinner remains out as he continues to rehab his knee, and Alcaraz should take advantage of that. The only thing that can keep the Spaniard from winning this 1000 is the Spaniard. If he is dialed in with his game plans, and doesn’t get bored of them, he’ll win this event.
QUICK NOTE: As of publishing time, quarter odds weren’t available. I’ll be looking for ways to back Daniil Medvedev to make the semifinals, so don’t be surprised if I end up adding something. If I do, I’ll update this story and send something out on Twitter (@BettingOnX).
Rolex Paris Masters Day 1 Best Bets – November 2
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Lorenzo Musetti Over 24.5 Games (-110)
If Hurkacz beats Musetti, it’s likely the Pole will do so in a lengthy match with several tiebreakers. Hurkacz just isn’t a strong returner, so consistently getting into a decent server’s games will be tough indoors. However, even a Musetti victory should come in a long match. If Hurkacz is on as a server, he’ll consistently target the Musetti backhand and give himself chances to win sets. Ultimately, I see both players getting on the board. However, I wouldn’t rule out a 7-6, 7-5 or 7-6, 7-6 victory for someone. That’s why I’m going Over on games instead of taking the +120 for Over 2.5 sets. It’s not worth it to lose with the right read for an extra 30 cents.
Daniel Merida Aguilar ML (+142) vs. Alexander Blockx
Merida Aguilar lost to a red-hot Medvedev in Vienna, but there’s no shame in that. Let’s see how he looks in a meeting with Blockx, who might be a little fatigued at this point in the season. The 21-year-old hasn’t advanced in a tournament since the US Open, so Merida Aguilar is getting him at the right time. I think the Spaniard’s baseline game will hold up extremely well here. We just need him to hit his spots as a a server. If he does, we should see some tight sets in this one, so it’ll be worth holding a +142 ticket.
Ugo Humbert ML (-154) vs. Botic van de Zandschulp
Humbert came up short in his attempt to knock off Novak Djokovic last tournament, but he did take a set and put up a strong fight. Beating van de Zandschulp should be a bit easier, and that’s especially true given Humbert’s love for competing indoors. Having the home crowd also won’t hurt, so I’ll happily back the better player at a reasonable -154 price. Humbert is 5-0 against van de Zandschulp in his career, and he had a 6-3, 6-4 win over him on indoor hard courts earlier in the year.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
