On Sunday, July 13th, we’re getting another battle between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, as the two will clash in the 2025 Wimbledon finals. This is a rematch of their epic French Open finals. That one saw Alcaraz leave Roland Garros as a champion after a 4-6, 6-7 (4), 6-4, 7-6 (3), 7-6 (2) victory. Alcaraz is now looking for a sixth consecutive win over the world No. 1, and the Spaniard is also looking to win the Channel Slam (French Open and Wimbledon) for the second year in a row. With all of that in mind, this is as good of a matchup as tennis fans can ask for, but it’s also something for all sports fans to enjoy. Let’s get into the dream showdown with an Alcaraz vs. Sinner betting preview.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Friday, July 11th at 7:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alcaraz -130, Sinner +105
Spread: Alcaraz -1.5 Games (-115), Sinner +1.5 Games (-120)
Total: Over 40.5 Games (-120), Under 40.5 Games (-110)
How To Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
Where: All England Club in London, England
When: Sunday, July 13th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Predictions
It’s going to be hard for Sinner to put the French Open final behind him. There’s no way around that. The Italian has talked about how painful the match was, as he squandered a two-set lead and also let three championship points slip away. However, Sinner has also talked about the importance of moving on — embracing the fact that he was part of one of the greatest matches in tennis history and going back to work. He has certainly done all of that. A little over a month later, Sinner finds himself in the final of another major, and he’s going to confront his demons in another showdown with Alcaraz.
There’s no shortage of reasons to back the Spaniard here. Alcaraz has won 24 matches in a row coming into this one. That run includes titles in Rome, Roland Garros and Queen’s Club. Oh, and by the way, Alcaraz won another 1000-level event in Monte Carlo before the streak started. Alcaraz has simply found another gear in 2025, as his 48–6 record gives him a career-high winning percentage. He also has a career-high break percentage (33.9%), and he has come to life as a spot server over the last couple of months. Alcaraz’s serve is one of the final pieces of the puzzle, as the 22-year-old is good, not great, with the ball on his racquet. However, he has been coming up bigger and bigger on serve in the key moments of matches, which has made him even tougher to beat than usual.
Alcaraz has also emerged as the “final boss” on grass, where he is 35–4 with two Queen’s Club titles and two Wimbledon titles. Oh yeah, did I mention the Spaniard is looking for a three-peat at the All England Club?
On top of all that, the head-to-head series between these two is starting to get a little alarming, with Alcaraz now sitting at 8–4 with five consecutive victories.
Understandably, bettors are flocking to back the Spaniard. Our VSiN tennis betting splits show that most of the tickets at DraftKings Sportsbook are coming in on Alcaraz, and I can’t fault anybody that wants to play it safe. Alcaraz is scorching hot, has a bit of a mental edge against this opponent and also happens to seem like the healthier of the two. However, if I were playing something in this match, I’d be backing Sinner pretty heavily. The only reason I’m not is that I already have a little something on the Italian at +460 odds. I grabbed that number the day before Sinner dismantled Ben Shelton. There was real uncertainty surrounding the world No. 1’s elbow after his fall early in the match against Grigor Dimitrov, and most prominent shops decided to hang big numbers on the 23-year-old.
Let’s start with that injury. I’m not going to sit here and argue that Sinner was going to beat Dimitrov in the Round of 16. I could make that case, but I won’t. Dimitrov had a 2–0 lead in sets, Sinner’s velocity was down on his serve and forehand and the Bulgarian’s game plan of slicing low to the Italian’s backhand was working. Then, Sinner caught a bit of a break with Dimitrov suffering an unfortunate pectoral injury. From there, a lot of people thought Sinner was going to either pull out of the tournament or simply lose to Shelton. He was scheduled for an MRI, he was canceling public practice sessions and all of the news coming out of his camp seemed negative.
Well, something changed. Sinner didn’t just beat Shelton; he pummeled him. The Italian earned a 7–6 (2), 6–4, 6–4 victory in a breezy match. He then made quick work of a banged-up Novak Djokovic in the semis, beating the 24-time Grand Slam champion 6–3, 6–3, 6–4.
I’m not going to read too much into the scores in those matches. Shelton is a talented player, but he has his flaws. Meanwhile, Djokovic is one of the best grass-courters of all time, but his movement was compromised by a bad fall he took against Flavio Cobolli in the quarterfinals.
However, what I will read into is Sinner’s ball striking, serving and overall game. After the Dimitrov match, the eye test suggested that Sinner was completely fine. His medical team must have gone to work — they popped that white Allen Iverson sleeve on, and everything looked golden.
But guess what? It isn’t just the eye test. My contacts at TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations said that Sinner’s shot quality — serve, return, forehand, backhand — all looked right on par with what they’ve seen this season. That was followed by the only message I needed to see: “Back to his best, mate.”
I say all of that to say that I’m treating Sinner like a healthy player heading into the Wimbledon final, and that player is due for a win over this opponent.
It’s easy to say someone is due without having much to support it. In a way, I did that when these two met in Paris. I leaned heavily on how I thought that matchup would play out, and honestly, I think I handicapped it pretty well — result be damned. However, this time, it feels like there are some numbers and facts that favor the Italian.
It’s just hard not to feel like Sinner has to have a good serving day against Alcaraz eventually. This season, the Italian is landing 61.4% of his first serves and winning 77.0% of his first-serve points. However, in the Roland Garros final, Sinner made just 53.9% of his first serves and won only 69.9% of his first-serve points. Sinner has now topped out at making 56.3% of first serves in three of his last four matches against Alcaraz.
Alcaraz is arguably the best returner in the sport right now, so he does deserve some credit for putting a lot of pressure on Sinner. His ability to pounce on anything weak forces the Italian to be a little more precise, and Sinner hasn’t been able to raise his level and find the necessary accuracy to win. But statistically, Sinner is too good with his serve placement to continue to struggle like this, and this is a part of his game that he’s in complete control of. Alcaraz might do some wild things throughout the course of a match to flip points around and frustrate the hell out of the world No. 1, but that’s largely out of his control. Hitting spots and being more efficient with the ball on his racquet is something Sinner can do without having to worry much about what’s happening on the other side of the net.
If this is the match where Sinner finds his first serve, I think the streak ends here. If he had been able to give himself a few more freebies on serve in Paris, he likely would have won that match. I mean, he was right there — even without the serve.
I’m also in the minority that believes the quicker conditions in London will actually help Sinner. I know Alcaraz’s variety has given him trouble in the past — he rarely gives Sinner the same ball twice. One point it’s heavy topspin, the next a knifing slice, and he’ll mix in dropshots and net rushes along the way. All of that keeps Sinner off balance, and it plays up even more on grass.
But realistically, none of that really mattered in their last meeting. Sinner was bullying him in baseline exchanges for nearly two hours, and he was in position to win on Alcaraz’s favorite surface without even showing up as a server. Then, knowing he was on the brink of elimination regardless, Alcaraz loosened up, started playing bold tennis and came up with magic more often than not. However, a lot of the things Alcaraz was doing were only possible because of the extra milliseconds that playing on clay provided him with. That won’t be there on a slicker surface like this one. On Centre Court, Sinner — even if he continues to play things a little safer as a ball striker — will have a much easier time ending rallies and preventing Alcaraz from coming up with extraordinary shots. That’ll make a huge difference. For all of the recent success Alcaraz has had against Sinner, none of it has come on a surface nearly as fast as this one.
Though, I do expect Sinner to be a little bolder himself. Darren Cahill and Simone Vagnozzi have done a good job of turning Sinner into a robot that rarely misses but can overwhelm opponents with the weight of his normal rally ball, even when aiming for bigger targets. But they’re likely going to remove some of the shackles in this final. Sinner should play that game rather often. Trust what got you to the dance. But when Sinner sees attackable balls, he needs to capitalize on his opportunities. He would have won the last match if he was a little better about putting away certain shots, and I think he’ll look for more angles and try to step on Alcaraz’s throat a little more often here.
Realistically, the margin between these players is razor thin. If Sinner just cleans up his act a little — whether that’s on serve or when getting his chances to hit winners — he’ll find a way across the finish line and sleep a little easier knowing that he got his revenge for Roland Garros. And truth be told, there’s a chance he doesn’t even need to do any of that. Alcaraz’s form at Wimbledon hasn’t been up to par, and we nearly saw him get pushed to five sets against Taylor Fritz. So, if the Spaniard doesn’t sharpen up himself, this might just go Sinner’s way anyway.
There’s also a little fight-or-flight at play here. Sinner is desperate for a win in this matchup, and there’s just no way that Alcaraz can match that desire after having won this many matches in a row against the Italian. That stuff matters.
Lean: Sinner ML (+114)
