On Saturday, May 16, Coco Gauff and Elina Svitolina will meet in the 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) finals. Both players have been awesome throughout the course of this event. Gauff earned a win over Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals here, while Svitolina had to go through both Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek. That said, this hasn’t been a cupcake run for either player, and the quality of tennis in this match should be pretty high. Keep reading to get an idea of how we see it playing out.
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Coco Gauff vs. Elina Svitolina Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Friday, May 15 at 1:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Gauff -159, Svitolina +130
Spread: Gauff -2.5 Games (-120), Svitolina +2.5 Games (-120)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-125), Under 21.5 Games (-120)
How To Watch Coco Gauff vs. Elina Svitolina
Where: Foro Italico in Rome, Italy
When: Saturday, May 16
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Coco Gauff vs. Elina Svitolina Predictions
Seeing Svitolina beat Swiatek hurt. I had the Pole to win the tournament at +550, so I was really hoping to see Swiatek get to the final. However, Svitolina’s level has been super impressive since the start of this tournament. Beating Rybakina and Swiatek in the same event is no easy feat. The Ukrainian also handled her first three opponents with ease, winning all of those matches in straight sets. With that in mind, it’s not easy to pick against Svitolina in this final. But when Gauff is rolling, she’s a nightmare to play against on clay. Well, it sure looks like the American is rolling right now.
Gauff has had to play a couple of three-setters in this tournament, as she was pushed to a decider by Solana Sierra, Iva Jovic, and Andreeva. However, what I’m focused on is the lack of double faults. Gauff, who has dealt with the yips for quite some time now, hasn’t had a double-digit double-fault percentage in 15 matches. She’s also starting to make a much higher percentage of her first serves. Against Andreeva, Gauff made 72.0% of her first serves. Then, in her semifinals showdown with Sorana Cirstea, Gauff put 78.0% of her first serves in the box.
Gauff just hasn’t been giving away as much with the ball on her racquet. Well, when she’s doing that, she can absolutely suffocate opponents. Gauff is one of the best baseline defenders in the sport, she has one of the top backhands in the women’s game, and her competitive spirit is relentless. She’s just not going to give Svitolina an inch in this match, and we have actually seen the Ukrainian struggle a bit with her serve over the last few matches. She didn’t ultimately pay for that against Rybakina or Swiatek, but Gauff will capitalize on break point opportunities if she gets enough of them.
Of course, the elephant in the room is that Svitolina has won back-to-back matches against Gauff, beating the American at the Australian Open and the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. But that was when Gauff’s game was in a much worse place. The American is really starting to round into form as we approach the French Open, where she’ll be defending her 2025 crown.
It’s just clear that the work Gauff is doing with biomechanics expert Gavin MacMillan is working. She’s far from a finished product, but she’s looking more and more like the world No. 2 she was in 2024 — and might even be better. If Gauff just can just avoid lapses with her serve and forehand, I don’t see her losing this match. The fact she’s a heavy favorite is telling. With Svitolina’s back-to-back wins over elite players, along with her two-match winning streak against Gauff, there should be no shortage of bettors on the Ukrainian. Yet Gauff is still being priced as a big favorite, which tells you the oddsmakers love the American’s chances.
Bet: Gauff ML (-152 – 2 units)
